The future trend of Tesla's stock price will largely depend on Elon Musk's performance at the Robotaxi Day on October 10. Investors are mainly concerned about whether Tesla can solidify its position as an "AI company" through Robotaxi, and are expecting Tesla to launch a more affordable model, Model 2, during the event.

It is noteworthy that on the eve of the Robotaxi Day event, Tesla's Chief Information Officer (CIO) Nagesh Saldi announced his resignation. According to Bloomberg, Saldi joined Tesla from HP in 2012 and served as the CIO since 2018, during which he was involved in the construction of new datacenters in Texas and New York.

Critical Moment

This year, Tesla's stock price has fluctuated dramatically, rising by 0.67% by the end of this week. However, since Elon Musk announced Robotaxi Day on April 5, Tesla's stock price has risen by nearly 50%, recovering from a 35% decline at the beginning of the year, reflecting the market's high expectations for this event.

Historically, Tesla's major new product launch events have usually brought about drastic fluctuations in stock prices. For example, after the debut of Model 3 in March 2016, the stock price rose by 12% in just a few days; while the introduction of the Optimus humanoid robot at AI Day in 2022 led to a 16% decline in stock price.

Therefore, whether Tesla's stock price can recover to previous highs or fall back to lows depends crucially on Elon Musk's performance at Robotaxi Day.

To meet market high expectations, Tesla needs to at least introduce physical Robotaxis and plan to achieve unsupervised autonomous driving services by 2026, as well as clearly articulate how to commercialize autonomous taxi services.

Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner pointed out: "Few industry events garner as much attention as Tesla's Robotaxi Day, the opportunity is huge, but Tesla still has a lot to prove."

Some analysts believe that although Robotaxi Day may seem to showcase autonomous driving technology, Musk's true task is to prove to investors that Tesla is not just an auto manufacturer, but a "technology company".

Wall Street generally believes that Tesla's future growth will mainly rely on its AI projects, especially Robotaxi and humanoid robot Optimus. These technological projects become key to supporting Tesla's stock price against the backdrop of slowing electric vehicle sales.

Currently, Tesla's valuation remains high, with a forward PE ratio of up to 90 times in the next 12 months, exceeding the other six companies in the magnificent 7, along with rapidly growing technology companies like Palantir and Snowflake.

Some views also point out that the success of Robotaxi Day will largely depend on Musk's performance. Tesla's short sellers believe that Musk is trying to shift investors' attention away from issues such as declining sales, increasing competition, and decreasing profitability of electric vehicles through such events.

On the other hand, the longs believe that Musk has signaled a breakthrough in AI technology, indicating that Tesla is gradually becoming a tech company beyond the realm of auto manufacturing, and Musk personally oversees these technological advancements.

Model 2 is the focus

In addition to Robotaxi, investors are also closely watching whether Tesla will introduce the lower-priced Model 2 model in this event. The Model 2 priced below 0.03 million US dollars is expected to further expand Tesla's potential market, especially as sales begin to slow down.

According to Wards Automotive data, as of August, Tesla's sales in the USA have dropped by nearly 10% year-on-year, while overall electric vehicle sales only grew by 7%, and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales increased by 18% year-on-year.

Currently, Wall Street expects tesla's delivery volume in 2024 to be around 1.8 million units, basically flat compared to 2023, lower than the analyst's forecast of 2.3 million units a year ago.

As of the close on Friday, October 4th, tesla's stock price was $250.08.