Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

China's recent impressive performance in the stock market has attracted global attention, with the NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index steadily climbing, closing up 12% this week. BNP Paribas strategists mentioned China's recent mmf stimulus measures as a 'comprehensive strategy', and predicted that China will introduce a new round of stimulus measures, continuously driving economic growth, with the Chinese stock market potentially skyrocketing by 15% again.

The strategist at the bank mentioned a series of recent mmf stimulus plans in China, including interest rate cuts, lowering banks' reserve requirements, and injecting $114 billion in liquidity into the market. These measures have boosted investors' optimism, and after the announcement of the measures, the Chinese stock market witnessed its best week performance since the financial crisis.

BNP Paribas stated that due to the possibility of the Chinese government increasing fiscal spending next year as a supplement to mmf support measures, the Chinese stock market may have more room for upward movement. For the stock market, this means a possible 15% increase from current levels in the short term.

Analysts estimate that the stimulus package could be announced as early as October, possibly during the upcoming session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress at the end of this month. The scale of the comprehensive plan could be as high as 3 trillion yuan ($427 billion), including an open-ended commitment to launch even larger stimulus plans next year.

The analysts said that these measures could drive GDP growth next year to 5%, higher than the bank's initial estimate of 4.5%.

The bank said, 'We observe that the Chinese stock market is undervalued across different benchmark indices and industries. Trading prices in most markets are significantly lower than or within a 10-year historical range.' Additionally, they also expect this policy to boost corporate profit growth by up to 15%.

The analyst also added, "The exact magnitude of stimulus measures will depend on the scale and details of the fiscal package... the sustainability of housing stability and the recovery of household wealth."

At the same time, some other experts point out that without the coordination of fiscal stimulus, China's monetary stimulus measures are unlikely to be effective. A researcher said this week that this could mean that the latest stimulus package will not have any direct impact on the Chinese economy before 2025, which is the fastest time for funding to be in place and deployed.

Editor / jayden