#中东局势 # #黄金Technical analysis#24K99讯 On Friday (10/5), the gold market fluctuated extremely sharply due to the US non-farm payrolls report and the geopolitical situation. The price of gold soared after plummeting close to 2,630 US dollars/ounce, breaking through 2,670 US dollars/ounce at one point. The final close was at the $2,653/oz level.

FXStreet analyst Christian Borjon Valencia points out that because of a strong USNon-farm payrolls dataIt was suggested that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates slightly, and the price of gold plummeted for a while. However, geopolitical risks involving Israel and Iran support the price of gold, which may hit 2,700 US dollars/ounce later.

The US Department of Labor reported on Friday that the number of new jobs added to the US labor market in September far exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, reflecting that the outlook for the job market was far better than Wall Street's expectations.

New in the US in SeptemberNumber of people employed in non-agricultural industriesThe total was 0.254 million, higher than the 0.159 million people after the August correction, and better than the 0.15 million expected by the market. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% month-on-month in September to 4.1%. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.

As an important measure of inflationary pressure, the year-on-year wage increase rose to 4% from 3.9% in August, up 0.4% month-on-month, in line with August data; the labor force participation rate remained the same as the previous month, at 62.7%.

Following the release of strong employment data, traders further bet that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, and lower the expected rate cut range for the next four meetings of the Federal Reserve to less than 100 basis points.

According to CME's “Federal Reserve Watch Tool”, the market currently predicts that the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points by November is 89.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 10.6%.

After the data was released, the US dollar index jumped to a seven-week high, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

The price of gold plummeted to 2631.92 US dollars/ounce after the strong non-agricultural report came out. However, the price of gold then rebounded sharply from its low point, hitting a high of 2670.22 US dollars/ounce.

(30 minute chart of spot gold source: 24K99)

As of Friday's close, spot gold closed at $2653.26 per ounce, with a slight drop of 0.1% during the day.

Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities (TD Securities), said: “Geopolitical tension is about to heat up over the weekend, curtailing investors' willingness to sell gold.”

Gold was used as a safe-haven investment during times of political turmoil. Last week, the gold price hit a record high of $2685.42 per ounce.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said: “If geopolitics come into play over the weekend, the price of gold futures could easily rise back to $2,700 per ounce and is expected to reach new historical highs.”

Israel has not promised that it will not carry out retaliatory strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities

On Friday (October 4) local time, a senior US State Department official said that Israel did not promise the Biden administration that it would not carry out retaliatory attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Israel and Iran have never been so close to forging a new, much more dangerous front in the war engulfing the Middle East.

The official added that it is difficult to determine whether Israel will launch a retaliatory attack on October 7, the first anniversary of Hamas's large-scale attack on Israel.

US President Joe Biden said at a briefing on Friday that if he were to take Israel's perspective, he would consider other alternatives to attacking oil fields.

Israel Defense Forces spokesman Hagari issued a statement on Tuesday night saying that Iran launched large-scale missile attacks against Israel from its territory, firing more than 180 ballistic missiles.

According to a report by the US news website Axios on Wednesday, Israeli officials said that Israel will launch a “major retaliation” against Iran's large-scale missile attack on Tuesday within a few days. The targets of the attacks may be oil production facilities and other strategic locations within Iran.

Iran threatened on Tuesday that it would launch another attack if Israel responds by force to the nearly 200 missiles it launched on Tuesday.

Axios reports that Israeli officials said that if this were to happen, all options would be on the table — including attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities.

How to trade gold?

Valencia indicated that next week, the US will release inflation data, initial jobless claims, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation will continue to limit the fall in gold prices. The escalation of the conflict involving Hezbollah, Iran, Israel, and the US will support the price of gold and open the door to challenging $2,700 per ounce.

fromTechnical sideLook, Valencia said that the price of gold isRelative strength index(RSI) consolidated around $2640-2670 per ounce for the fifth day after exiting the overbought region. The price movement remained range-bound, and buyers lost momentum, opening the door for a pullback.

If the daily closing price of gold falls below 2,650 US dollars/ounce, it may fall to the high level of September 18 (currently turning into support) of 2,600 US dollars/ounce. Once the above levels are broken, the next support area will be the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,524 per ounce.

(Spot gold daily chart source: FXStreet)

Valencia added that, on the contrary, to continue to be bullish, the price of gold needs to overcome $2,670 per ounce before it has a chance to challenge the high of 2,685 US dollars/ounce so far this year. The next target will be the $2,700/oz mark.