The S&P 500 Index, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) continues to hit all-time highs with market optimism from investors and an interest rate cut sparking the potential for a strong end to the 2024 year.
What Happened: For the first time since 2019, the S&P 500 posted a positive return during September.
With three months left in the calendar year, investors see more optimism ahead.
"Is the S&P 500 heading for a raging bull run or a devastating crash by the end of 2024?" Benzinga asked its readers.
Here are the results:
- Raging Bull Run – It will finish the year above 6,000: 34%
- Holding Steady – It will finish between 5,400-5,700: 51%
- Devastating Crash – It's dropping below 5,000: 16%
The poll found that the majority of people see the S&P 500 Index holding steady to close out the year with year-to-date gains of more than 20% currently realized.
A large portion of readers see the S&P 500 hitting new highs of over 6,000 by the end of the year then crashing back down to the 5,000 level last seen in May of this year.
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Why It's Important: The S&P 500 is up 20.9% year-to-date at a current level of 5,733.46. Over the past 52 weeks, the well-known stock index has traded between 4,103.78 to 5,767.37.
Here's a look at the yearly returns for the index in recent years:
- 2023: +24.2%
- 2022: -19.4%
- 2021: +26.9%
- 2020: +16.3%
- 2019: +28.9%
The 2024 year also marks a presidential election year, which has historically posted strong market performances. The S&P 500 Index has been up 14 of the past 16 presidential years, with the only down years coming with the dot-com bubble (2000) and global financial crisis (2008).
The +20.9% performance currently ranks ahead of the last five presidential election years, shown below:
- 2020: +18.4%
- 2016: +12.0%
- 2012: +16.0%
- 2008: -37.0%
- 2004: +10.9%
With a 20%+ return in 2024, the S&P 500 would finish well above the average of +10.5% over the past 16 presidential election years.
The study was conducted by Benzinga from Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, 2024, and included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 103 adults.
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