Noah Holdings Limited (NYSE:NOAH) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 57% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been disappointing. In that time, the share price dropped 65%. So it is really good to see an improvement. After all, could be that the fall was overdone.
The recent uptick of 16% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Noah Holdings became profitable within the last five years. We would usually expect to see the share price rise as a result. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.
Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. On the other hand, the uninspired reduction in revenue, at 11% each year, may have shareholders ditching the stock. This could have some investors worried about the longer term growth potential (or lack thereof).
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
If you are thinking of buying or selling Noah Holdings stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Noah Holdings, it has a TSR of -55% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
Noah Holdings' TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 35%. To take a positive view, the gain is pleasing, and it sure beats annualized TSR loss of 7%, which was endured over half a decade. While 'turnarounds seldom turn' there are green shoots for Noah Holdings. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Noah Holdings that you should be aware of.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.