Us stock valuations return to the peak of the science and technology bubble in 2000

After more than a decade of gains, the ratio of S & P 500 corporate value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation has returned above 14 for the first time since the bursting of the internet-driven stock market bubble in 2000, according to Bloomberg data.

Judging from the ratio of Buffett's favorite stock market capitalization to GDP, it now exceeds the peak of 140% in 2000 and reaches 151%.

77%CFO thinks the stock market is overvalued.

According to a Deloitte survey of CFO on Jan. 9, 147CFO from the United States, Canada and Mexico were surveyed.CFO, a big US company, entered 2020 with caution, and almost everyone expected the US economy to slow against the backdrop of overvalued stock markets.

Deloitte points out that while business leaders believe the economy is in good shape, they expect the situation to slow by the end of 2020. They also see a slowdown in consumer and business spending, while 82% are expected to take on more defensive actions, such as reducing discretionary spending and personnel, to avoid looming disadvantages.

Although CFO sees a potential downturn, that doesn't mean they foresee the worst. ActuallyExpectations of a complete recession fell to 3% in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from 15% in the first quarter of 2019. However, 97% of people said that the deceleration has begun or will begin sometime in 2020.

According to the survey, 77 per cent of CFO said stocks were overvalued, the highest level in nearly two years.Only 4 per cent said stocks were undervalued, down from 10 per cent in the last survey. Although CFO generally believes that U. S. stocks are overvalued, it does not prevent them from continuing to buy back stocks, especially technology stocks.

CEO thinks recession is the biggest business risk in 2020

According to the CEO Challenge Survey released by the American Federation of Enterprises (Conference Board) on January 2, CEO still believe that the longest global expansion in US history may end in 2020 is the most worrying thing, which is the second year in a row that the recession has become the biggest concern of the CEO.

"just two years ago, in our survey, the global recession barely appeared in CEO's mind. The real risk of this declining mentality is that it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. "the authors of the survey concluded. Concerns about the recession stem from "continued uncertainty in global trade, increased competition, global political instability and tightening labour markets, which in themselves could seriously constrain business growth. "

Over the past two years, there has been a huge and profound gap between consumer confidence and CEO, with the former soaring to an all-time high and the latter falling to financial crisis levels.

Deutsche Bank said CEO confidence tends to lead the ISM non-manufacturing PMI with extraordinary accuracy for 12 months, suggesting that CEO confidence and sentiment may be far more accurate indicators of economic development, and consumer confidence represents only lagging indicators of the economy or the stock market at any given moment.