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美股早市 | 9月非农数据远超预期,三大指数高开后有所回落;科技股多数上涨,AMD、特斯拉、亚马逊涨超2%

U.S. stock market morning session | September non-farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, with the three major indices opening higher before falling back slightly; most technology stocks rose, with AMD, tesla, and amazon up more than 2%.

Global market report ·  Oct 4 22:07

On the evening of the 4th Beijing time, US stocks opened high on Friday. The US stock market in Septembernon-farm payroll datafar exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly declining, indicating a labor market far stronger than Wall Street's expectations, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the November meeting. The strike at East Coast ports in the United States has ended.

As of press time,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$up by 0.42%,$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$up by 0.52%,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Rose 0.37%.

The US Department of Labor reported on Friday that the US labor market added significantly more new jobs in September than expected, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased, reflecting a much stronger employment outlook than Wall Street's expectations.

In September, the United States addedNon-farm employmenta total of 0.254 million, higher than the revised 0.159 million in August, and better than the average forecast of 0.15 million people from analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. The unemployment rate in September decreased by 0.1% month-on-month to 4.1%. The market expects the unemployment rate to stabilize at 4.2%.

As an important indicator of measuring inflationary pressure, the wage growth rate increased from 3.9% in August to 4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, consistent with the August data; the labor force participation rate remained unchanged from the previous month at 62.7%.

Analysts said that the strong Septembernon-farm payroll dataThe possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at the next meeting has disappeared, making it possible for officials to continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points step by step.

Following the strong employment data, traders further bet that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November and December, and reduce the expected rate cut for the future four Fed meetings to less than 100 basis points.

According to the 'FedWatch Tool' at the CME, the current market predicts a 89.4% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points by November, and a 10.6% probability of a 50 basis points cut.

The tool also predicts a 74.5% probability of the Fed cumulatively cutting rates by 50 basis points by December, a 23.7% probability of a 75 basis points cut; and a 1.8% probability of a 100 basis points cut. Before non-farm payrolls were released, the probabilities were 71.5% for a 25 basis points cut by November, and 28.5% for a 50 basis points cut.

The probability of a cumulative 50 basis points rate cut by December is expected to be 45.8%, 44.0% for a 75 basis points cut; and 10.2% for a 100 basis points cut.

Data released earlier this week shows that job demand remains healthy, while layoffs are still low, so the employment report may alleviate concerns about the job market cooling too quickly. Employment data may increase the possibility of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve decision makers next month.

At the September monetary policy meeting, the Fed initiated this round of rate cuts with a significant 50 basis points cut. This was because the mild inflation data and signs of a cooling job market this summer made officials think they might have started cutting rates a bit late.

However, Friday's non-farm employment report shows that the labor market conditions in July and August are not as weak as reported last month (when the Federal Reserve had not yet cut interest rates), and the recruitment situation in September is even stronger.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Monday that officials are not eager to cut interest rates, and the strong recruitment data in September will underline this point.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans reiterated on Thursday that interest rates need to be reduced 'significantly' in the coming year. Evans emphasized that the Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, stating he hopes to prevent the unemployment rate from rising further, currently at 4.2%.

Evans said in an interview: 'Inflation is decreasing, close to target, the unemployment rate has risen, the labor market is basically what we want. Over the next 12 months, interest rates need to drop significantly.'

Crude oil prices continued to rise on Friday, extending the 5% gain from the previous day. Middle East tensions escalated and pushed up oil prices after Iran launched missile attacks on Israel. This week, the US WTI crude oil futures price has risen by about 9%.

With the rise in oil prices, the energy sector rose across the board this week, with the energy sector in the S&P 500 index up by 5.9%, potentially marking the largest weekly gain in over a year.

The major strike by East Coast port workers in the United States ended on Thursday night, reopening ports along the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico as the International Longshoremen's Association and the United States Maritime Alliance reached a temporary agreement on wages, removing one uncertainty from the market. Both parties also agreed to extend the existing contract until January to allow for more time for further negotiations.

Although the strike has ended, clearing the backlog of goods will still take time. During the three-day strike, at least 54 container ships were queued outside the port as the strike prevented unloading and threatened shortages of all goods from bananas to auto parts.

Focus stocks

Growth tech stocks mostly rose,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$,$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Hua Hong Semi rose more than 2%.

China concept stocks are experiencing mixed fluctuations.$Trip.com (TCOM.US)$Rose nearly 6%.$JD.com (JD.US)$up more than 2%,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$falling more than 3%.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Rising more than 2%, investors are eagerly anticipating the next week's conference. According to Tesla bulls and Deepwater Management analyst Gene Munster, apart from the highly anticipated Robotaxi, Tesla may also launch another two new vehicles.

$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$Rising more than 2%, the company announced the launch of EPYC Embedded 8004 series embedded processors.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Rising more than 2%, Kelly Day, Vice President of Prime Video International, recently revealed in an interview that starting next year, Amazon will provide advertisers with more ad space on the Prime Video platform, meaning the number of ads on Prime Video will increase by 2025.

“Large holders of cash”$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Rising more than 3%, Bitcoin broke through the $62,000 mark during today's trading.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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