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US stock market outlook: US September non-farm data higher than expected! Three major futures indicators surge in a straight line; will Chinese concept stocks continue to climb? Morgan Stanley: If short positions cover, it will push up the upward trend.

Futu News · 20:34

热点要闻

周五美股盘前，三大股指期货直线拉升

北京时间20:30，美国9月非农就业人数增加25.40万人，预期增加14.00万人，前值增加15.90万人。美国9月失业率为4.10%，预期为4.20%，前值为4.20%。

明星科技股盘前普涨，亚马逊、特斯拉张超1%

热门中概股盘前多数上涨，携程网涨超7%，京东涨超4%，阿里巴巴、百度涨超3%

中概股ETF盘前再度领涨美股ETF，截至发稿$3倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion (YINN.US)$涨11.51%、$2倍做多中国互联网股票ETF-Direxion (CWEB.US)$涨7.65%。

欧盟委员会向中国电动汽车征收反补贴税提议获通过

据央视，欧盟就是否对中国电动汽车征收为期五年的反补贴税举行投票。欧盟委员会发布的声明显示，投票中欧委会对中国进口纯电动汽车征收关税的提议获得了欧盟成员国的必要支持。声明说，欧盟和中国继续努力探索替代解决方案，该解决方案必须完全符合世贸组织规定、能够充分解决委员会调查所确定的损害性补贴、并且可监控和可执行。

苹果预计将于2025年春季推出的iPhone SE 4，将搭载苹果自研5G Modem

从供应链获悉，iPhone SE 4将搭载$苹果 (AAPL.US)$自研5G Modem。另据10月4日公开消息，苹果公司预计将于2025年春季推出第四代iPhone SE，这款机型将首次采用OLED屏幕，售价可能为459美元-499美元，约合人民币3221元-3502元（截至10月4日汇率）。

Rivian盘前跌逾7%，公司更新2024年年产量展望

“特斯拉劲敌”$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$更新2024年年产量展望，预计年度汽车产量为4.7万至4.9万辆，在截至9月30日的季度生产了1.3157万辆汽车。

Spirit Airlines盘前暴跌33%，公司正讨论潜在的破产申请条款

美国廉价航空公司$Spirit Airlines (SAVE.US)$美股盘前暴跌33%。消息称，在与捷蓝航空合并失败后，该公司正与债券持有人讨论潜在的破产申请条款。

全球宏观

“华尔街最准策略师”发声：如果非农符合预期，市场将出现风险偏好反弹

有着“华尔街最准策略师”称号的美国银行分析师哈特内特认为，如果最新的美国非农就业情况符合预期，市场将出现风险偏好大幅反弹，这位策略师领导的美银策略师表示，如果月度就业数据表明美国经济上个月增加了12.5万至17.5万个工作岗位，这将支持经济软着陆，并使美国国债收益率保持在一定范围内，从而引发风险市场回暖的交易。

中概飙涨继续？小摩：近期暴涨由新买盘推动，空头若回补将推高涨势

自中国宣布经济刺激政策以来，中国科技股大幅上涨，而且所有迹象都表明，新买盘是主要原因。S3 Partners和摩根大通的数据显示，阿里巴巴、京东和百度等大型科技公司美国存托凭(ADR)的空头头寸近日来没有太大变化。如果空头被迫退出头寸，股市可能会进一步上涨。

美银：中国股票基金最近一周资金流入规模创历史次高

美国银行引述EPFR Global数据称，截至10月3日当周，全球新兴市场股票型基金录得155亿美元资金流入，创出历史第二高。中国股市当周有139亿美元资金流入，创纪录第二高。过去18周，新兴市场股票基金不间断地获得资金流入。今年迄今流入中国股市的资金达到1,140亿美元，印度流入213亿美元，流出巴西的资金规模为30亿美元。

欧洲央行管委：通胀已得到控制，劳动力市场降温令人担忧

欧洲央行管委森特诺周五表示，欧洲劳动力市场开始降温，这令人担忧，因为这可能导致投资和增长低于平均水平。他还表示，欧元区的通胀已得到控制。市场押注欧洲央行将于10月17日加快降息步伐，因为上月通胀率降至2%以下，而欧元区正试图避免经济衰退。森特诺说:“欧洲的增长问题是核心……我们现在开始看到劳动力市场出现了首批隐忧。”

伊朗最高领袖：近期对以军事行动是“最小惩罚”，如有必要将继续

伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊向伊朗民众发表讲话。哈梅内伊表示，根据国际法，任何一个国家都有权利保卫自己的国家和人民不受外敌侵害。伊朗、巴勒斯坦、黎巴嫩、叙利亚、埃及、伊拉克、也门，这些国家都有一个共同的敌人（以色列）。没有任何一条国际法和国际准则，不允许巴勒斯坦人民捍卫自己的权利。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:30 美国9月季调后非农就业人口(万人)

20:30 美国9月失业率

22:00 美国9月全球供应链压力指数

21:00 FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯纽约联储举行的一场会议上致开幕词

次日凌晨

01:00 美国至10月4日当周石油钻井总数(口)

编辑/ping

Hot news

In pre-market trading on Friday, the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply.

At 20:30 Beijing time, the US non-farm payroll employment in September increased by 0.254 million, expected to increase by 0.14 million, with the previous value increasing by 0.159 million. The US unemployment rate in September was 4.10%, expected to be 4.20%, with the previous value at 4.20%.

Growth tech stocks rose across the board in pre-market trading, with Amazon and Tesla up over 1%.

China concept stocks mostly rose in pre-market trading, with Trip.com up over 7%, JD.com up over 4%, Alibaba and Baidu up over 3%

China concept stocks ETF once again led the rise in US ETFs in pre-market trading, as of the time of publication$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$up 11.51%,$Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares ETF (CWEB.US)$Rose by 7.65%.

The European Commission's proposal to impose anti-subsidy tariffs on electric vehicles from China has been approved.

According to CCTV, the European Union is voting on whether to impose a five-year anti-subsidy tax on Chinese electric cars. A statement released by the European Commission shows that the proposal to impose tariffs on imported pure electric cars from China has received the necessary support from EU member states. The statement mentions that the EU and China are continuing efforts to explore alternative solutions that must fully comply with WTO regulations, effectively address the subsidies identified in the Commission's investigation, and be monitored and enforceable.

Apple is expected to launch the iPhone SE 4 with its self-developed 5G Modem in spring 2025.

According to the supply chain, the iPhone SE 4 will be equipped with $Apple (AAPL.US)$self-developed 5G Modem. According to the public information released on October 4th, Apple is expected to launch the fourth generation iPhone SE in spring 2025. This model will feature an OLED screen for the first time and may be priced between $459 and $499, equivalent to 3221 to 3502 yuan (as of October 4th exchange rates).

Rivian fell more than 7% in pre-market trading, the company updates its 2024 annual production outlook.

"Tesla's rival"$Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US)$Updating its 2024 annual production outlook, it is expected to produce between 0.047 million and 0.049 million vehicles annually, having produced 0.013157 million vehicles in the quarter ending on September 30.

Spirit Airlines plunged 33% in pre-market trading, the company is discussing potential bankruptcy filing terms.

American low-cost airline$Spirit Airlines (SAVE.US)$U.S. stocks tumbled 33% before market open. Reports suggest that following the failed merger with JetBlue Airways, the company is discussing potential bankruptcy filing terms with bondholders.

Global macro

"Wall Street's most accurate strategist" speaks out: If the non-farm payroll meets expectations, the market will see a risk appetite rebound.

Bank of America analyst Hartnett, known as the "most accurate strategist on Wall Street," believes that if the latest U.S. non-farm employment situation meets expectations, the market will experience a significant risk appetites rebound. This strategist, leading a team of BofA strategists, stated that if the monthly employment data indicates the U.S. economy added 0.125 million to 0.175 million jobs last month, this will support an economic soft landing, keeping U.S. Treasury yields within a certain range, triggering trades that will revive risk markets.

Will the surge of China concept stocks continue? Nomura: Recent sharp rise driven by new buying pressure, if short positions cover, the upward trend will be pushed higher.

Since China announced economic stimulus policies, Chinese technology stocks have surged significantly, and all signs indicate that new buying pressure is the main reason. Data from S3 Partners and JPMorgan show that short positions in U.S. depositary receipts (ADRs) of large technology companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Baidu have not changed much recently. If short sellers are forced to close positions, the stock market may further rise.

Bank of America: China fund stocks saw the second-highest historical inflow scale in the past week.

Citing EPFR Global data, Bank of America stated that as of the week of October 3, global emerging market stock funds recorded $15.5 billion inflow, the second highest in history. In the same week, the Chinese stock market saw $13.9 billion inflow, the second highest on record. For the past 18 weeks, emerging market stock funds have continuously received inflows. Funds flowing into the Chinese stock market this year have reached $114 billion, $21.3 billion into India, and $3 billion out of Brazil.

European Central Bank Committee: Inflation has been brought under control, concerns arise as the labor market cools down.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Schnetno said on Friday that the European labor market is starting to cool, which is worrying as it could lead to investment and growth below average levels. He also stated that inflation in the eurozone is under control. The market bets that the European Central Bank will accelerate its interest rate cuts on October 17th, as last month's inflation rate fell below 2%, while the eurozone is trying to avoid an economic recession. Schnetno said: "The growth problem in Europe is critical... we are now beginning to see the first signs of concern in the labor market."

Iran's Supreme Leader: Recent military actions against Israel are "the minimum punishment", and they will continue if necessary.

Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei addressed the Iranian people. Khamenei stated that according to international law, every country has the right to defend its country and people from external aggression. Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Iraq, and Yemen, these countries all have a common enemy (Israel). There is no international law or standard that does not allow the Palestinian people to defend their rights.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30 US September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population (10,000 people)

20:30 US September unemployment rate

10:00 USA Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for September.

9:00 PM FOMC Permanent Voters, New York Fed President Williams, gave opening remarks at a meeting held by the New York Fed.

The next morning

1:00 USA Total Oil Rigs Count for the week ending October 4th.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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