Today, after the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, China-affiliated brokerage stocks all rose. $CC SECURITIES (01375.HK)$ Intraday, the largest increase exceeded 35%. $SWHY (06806.HK)$ Rose over 20%, $EB SECURITIES (06178.HK)$ Rises more than 15%, $CMSC (06099.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$GUOLIAN SEC (01456.HK)$ All rose by more than 13%. $CGS (06881.HK)$ In terms of news, the iPhone 16 series is expected to be released in September 2024 and may be officially unveiled on September 10. Soochow Securities' research report also pointed out that with August entering the peak season for iPhone new component stocking, production and delivery are expected to accelerate, and the market is highly concerned about the launch of the iPhone 16 series in September.

Analysts believe that the logic behind the market's speculation on china-affiliated brokerage stocks is that the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are hot, with trading volumes repeatedly breaking historical records, and brokerages will be the first to benefit. This National Day holiday, major brokerages have sent out significant signals.

Currently, the market's most concerning topic is whether this wave of market trends can continue. The brokerage sector has always been an indicator of a bull market. Today, brokerage stocks once again rose across the board, indicating that market expectations for the future market trends of Hong Kong stocks remain optimistic.

"Bull market leader" all rallied.

On October 4th, after the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, China-affiliated brokerage stocks all rose, CC Securities once surged over 30%, now up more than 23%, swhy up more than 20%, Everbright up more than 15%, China Merchants Securities, Guolian Securities both up more than 13%, China Galaxy up more than 10%.

Analysts believe that the market capital is speculating on brokerage stocks because the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are booming, with trading volumes repeatedly breaking historical records, and brokerages will be the first to benefit. The brokerage sector was previously suppressed to a large extent, with overall valuations relatively low, resulting in the current round of market rebound being relatively rapid.

During this National Day holiday, major brokerages have already received significant signals. Many brokerages have reported a huge surge in account opening business, with most customer service staff canceling their holidays, being on standby 24 hours a day to handle an unprecedented surge in customer inquiries.

Tom Chan Pak-lam, Honorary Chairman of the Hong Kong Securities Association, stated that the continued rebound in the market and record-high trading volume have sparked the interest of young people. It is expected that more investors will open stock accounts for trading. This also attracts previously inactive investors back to the market.

Furthermore, the market expects that with a significant market recovery, the IPO market will also revive, bringing incremental business to brokerages. Zhou Weiming, head of the Capital Markets Department for the Asia-Pacific region at Citigroup, pointed out that the Fed's rate cuts have driven Hong Kong rates down, coupled with China's successive large-scale market rescue measures. If these factors can drive continuous economic recovery in the mainland, it will lead to a market rebound. It is expected that next year Hong Kong's new stock (IPO) market may return to the bull market of three to four years ago.

How will the future develop?

Currently, the most discussed topic in the market is whether this wave of market trends can continue.

The brokerage sector has always been a barometer of bull markets. Today, brokerage stocks once again surged across the board, indicating that the market still holds a generally optimistic outlook for the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market.

Yidong Zhang, Chief Global Strategy Analyst at CICC, stated that the logic of the Chinese stock market is undergoing a transformation. Whether it is A-shares or H-shares, the mid-term market trend will shift from a rebound logic to a reversal logic. The key to this change lies in the directional shift of China's macro policies.

Yidong Zhang further explained that for a long period in the past, overseas investors held a relatively pessimistic outlook on China, accumulating significant short positions. By the end of September, there was a rapid shift in market sentiment, forcing short positions to be covered, leading to a short-squeeze scenario. Zhang mentioned that the Hong Kong stock market is in the first stage of the market cycle— the phase of short covering. In the short term, the market may experience volatility. It will take time for the market to digest the 'over-excitement' and identify sustainable investment themes.

From the current market trends, foreign capital is still in the accumulation phase in the Hong Kong stock market. The performance after the market's volatile pullback may be more worthy of attention.

According to the latest research report from china galaxy Securities, the continuous market upswing is dependent on the implementation and continuity of policies. In the short term, with the frequent release of policies, there will be an observation period in the foreseeable future.

china galaxy Securities states that on one hand, attention should be paid to the speed and effectiveness of the implementation of previous policies, such as the impact of real estate policies on sales and price trends, the issuance and utilization of government bonds and special bonds, improvements in monetary and financial data, and the influence of these factors on the economic fundamentals like consumption and investment. On the other hand, focus should be on policy continuity, for example, the continuation of monetary policy in conjunction with fiscal policy through further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates; the advancement of stock market stabilization funds, and the possibility of establishing a central institution specialized in real estate acquisitions and storage. The 'three differentiations' proposed at the September Politburo meeting are largely aimed at encouraging central ministries and local governments to proactively implement the central government's spirit by increasing tolerance to spur the acceleration of policy implementation and effectiveness.

Editor/Somer