In the United States, initial jobless claims rose to 0.225 million last week, exceeding expectations and the previous value, in line with the cooling trend in the labor market. However, the September ISM Non-Manufacturing index rose to an 18-month high of 54.9, significantly above expectations and the previous value, driven by a surge in orders and strengthened commercial activities, continuing to boost the US dollar and US bond yields, also causing the S&P and Nasdaq to briefly turn positive at the opening.

The market is focused on the US September non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with expectations for a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November dropping from 49% last week to 34%. Dock workers' strike activities along the US East Coast and Gulf of Mexico continue for a third day, with analysts suggesting potential disruptions to the Fed's decisions, possibly causing economic losses in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Atlanta Fed President and Chicago Fed Chair express hopes of avoiding an increase in the unemployment rate next year.

The possibility of Israel attacking Iran's oil industry is causing concerns among investors, leading to a lack of risk appetite. The US stock market, previously boosted by American service sector data, saw its losses widen before noon, with the Dow plummeting by nearly 350 points. International oil prices surged by over 5% to their highest levels in four weeks. When asked about supporting Israel's strikes on Iran's oil facilities, US President Biden stated they are 'discussing the issue.' However, he indicated that Israel is not expected to take retaliatory action on Thursday, narrowing the oil price gains, which have already risen by 7% this week.

In the currency markets, the Governor of the Bank of England unexpectedly turned dovish, causing the British pound to plummet by over 1% for its biggest drop in a year. The euro fell for the fifth consecutive day, marking its longest downward streak in five months, with market expectations for an ECB rate cut significantly increasing. Following the new Prime Minister's clear refusal to raise rates, the yen continued to decline, briefly dropping below 147 to its six-week low. The offshore renminbi fell for five consecutive days below 7.05 yuan, erasing gains since last Tuesday, while Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000.

On Thursday, October 3, US stocks opened lower across the board, with the Dow dropping by a hundred points at the opening. Within an hour, chip and energy stocks boosted confidence, alongside enhanced sentiments from US service sector data, leading to a rapid narrowing of losses in US stocks, with the S&P and Nasdaq briefly turning positive. After President Biden's remarks on the possibility of Israel striking Iran's oil facilities, US stocks resumed their slide, with the Dow plunging by nearly 350 points, and Chinese concept stocks pausing their rally. At midday, the S&P and Nasdaq briefly turned positive again before ultimately closing lower, with the Dow dropping by over 180 points:

• US stock indices all closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 9.60 points, a decrease of 0.17%, closing at 5699.94 points. The Dow Jones, closely tied to the economic cycle, dropped by 184.93 points, a decline of 0.44%, closing at 42011.59 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by technology stocks, fell by 6.65 points, a decrease of 0.04%, closing at 17918.48 points. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.05%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), measuring the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech stocks, rose by 0.56%. The more economically sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index fell by 0.68%. The VIX fear index surged over 8%, surpassing 20.

• US stock industry ETFs closed with mixed results, with chip and energy ETFs leading the gains. The biotechnology index ETF fell by 1.51%, the consumer discretionary ETF dropped by 1.16%, the financial sector ETF by over 0.5%, the global tech stock index ETF by less than 0.1%, the banking sector ETF rose by over 0.1%, the regional banking ETF by over 0.2%, the technology sector ETF by over 0.4%, the semiconductor ETF by over 0.9%, and the energy sector ETF by 1.76%.

• "Tech Seven Sisters" only Nvidia and Meta rose, with Meta hitting a new high. Apple fell by 0.49%, Nvidia rose by 3.37%, Tesla fell by 3.36%, Microsoft fell by 0.14%, Google A fell by over 1% before closing flat, Meta rose by 1.74%, and Amazon fell by 1.52%.

• On the news front, it was reported that Cook sold over 0.22 million shares of Apple, cashing out over 50 million USD. Nuclear power and uranium mining stocks rose, Star Power Energy rose over 5% at one point, Google said to be considering buying nuclear power for data centers. Media reports that Tesla plans to launch four new batteries in 2026, including batteries for self-driving rental cars. Nvidia insiders sold over 1.8 billion USD worth of stock, with more sell-offs to come.

• Most chip stocks rose. After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.8% and then closed up by 0.5%, the industry ETF SOXX closed up by 0.4%; Nvidia's double long ETF rose by 6.7%. Intel fell by 0.6%, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose by 2.1%, Broadcom rose by 0.7%, Arm Holdings rose by 0.9%, Micron Technology rose by 2%, Applied Materials fell by 0.8%, ASML ADR was slightly up, KLA Corp fell by 0.4%, AMD rose by 1.9%, and Qualcomm rose by 0.4%.

• AI concept stocks mostly rose with few declines. Dell Technologies rose by nearly 2%, Super Micro Computer fell by 1%. Serve Robotics fell by 0.1%, CrowdStrike rose by 1.3%, BullFrog AI fell by nearly 14%, AI voice company SoundHound AI, in which Nvidia holds shares, fell by 0.9%, BigBear.ai rose by approximately 8%, C3.ai rose by 0.6%, Snowflake rose by 0.8%, Oracle fell by 0.5%, and Palantir rose by 4.7%.

• The rise of Chinese concept stocks paused. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 3.8% before closing down by 2.4%, straying from the highest level since February last year. The China Technology ETF (CQQQ) fell by 2.9%, the China Internet ETF (KWEB) fell by 3.1%, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 7.4%, and the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) rose by over 7%. The FTSE A50 Index Futures night session fell by 2% before closing down by 0.41%, at 14928.00 points. The Roundhill China ETF (DRAG) listed in the US fell by 0.63% on its first day of trading.

• Among popular Chinese concept stocks, Alibaba and Tencent ADRs fell by 2%, Baidu fell by over 5%, Bilibili fell by 8.8%, Nio and Xpeng Motor fell by 7%, but PDD Holdings initially fell by nearly 4% before briefly turning positive, ending up with a slight decline, JD.com fell by 4.4% before closing down by 0.5%, halting its five-day consecutive rise, Fangdd Network fell by nearly 14%.

• On the news front, as the bull market returns, the "China Dragons" ETF debuts on Wall Street, mirroring the seven giant ETFs of US stocks. The new ETF tracking the performance of large Chinese companies, The Roundhill China Dragons ETF (DRAG), launches on the US stock market, with issuers collectively referring to these companies as the "China Dragons." Its current members include Tencent, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Meituan, BYD, Xiaomi, JD.com, Baidu, and NetEase.

• Other key individual stocks: 1) Levi Strauss, the leader in denim clothing, opened nearly 12% lower before closing down by 7.7%. The quarterly financial report had mixed results, with a downgrade in annual revenue guidance and consideration of selling the Dockers business dragging down performance. 2) Bank of America turned up after falling by 1.3%, underpinned by Buffett's Berkshire, which sold over 8.5 million shares, worth 0.338 billion USD over the past three trading days. The stake sale exceeded 9 billion USD, with a stake percentage of 10.2%, starting to cash out from mid-July.

The tense situation in the Middle East caused the pan-European index to fall by nearly 1%, marking a fourth consecutive day of decline from its historical high. Building materials and mining stocks led the decline, while the oil and gas sector followed the rise in oil prices. European auto stocks also continued to slide, with Stellantis' European and US stocks both falling by over 4%. Renault in France dropped by 2%, relative to the worst performers in national indices within France and Italy falling by over 1%:

The European STOXX 600 index closed down by 0.93% at 516.29 points, after hitting new highs in both intraday and closing on September 27, followed by a four-day cumulative decline of 2.23%. The Eurozone STOXX 50 index fell by 0.85%, the FTSE All-World Ex-U.S. 300 index fell by 0.90%.

Germany's DAX 30 index fell by 0.78%, continuing a four-day decline and a cumulative drop of 2.4% since hitting its intraday and closing highs on September 27. The French CAC 40 index fell by 1.32%, the Italian FTSE MIB index fell by 1.50%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.10%.

Investors continued to weigh employment, economic, and geopolitical prospects. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by over 7 basis points, breaking through 3.70%, the highest in two weeks since September 18. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose by 7 basis points to nearly 3.86%, hitting a four-week high since September 3. The Governor of the Bank of England's statement strengthened rate cut bets, with the two-year UK bond yield falling by about 5 basis points:

• U.S. Treasuries: At the close, the yield on the 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury rose by 6.30 basis points to 3.8439%, trading in the range of 3.7828% - 3.8496% intraday. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.19 basis points to 3.7033%, trading in the range of 3.6352% - 3.7136% intraday.

• Eurozone Bonds: At the close, the yield on 10-year German bonds rose by 5.2 basis points to 2.144%, trading in the range of 2.099% - 2.157%, rebounding for two consecutive days since falling to 2.010% on October 1 (approaching the January 4 bottom of 1.974%). The yield on two-year German bonds rose by 4.2 basis points to 2.081%, as the U.S. ISM Services Index hit a daily high of 2.094%, moving away from the lowest level since November 2, 2022, reached on October 1. The yield on 10-year UK bonds fell by 0.9 basis points to 4.016%, having briefly fallen to 3.996% at 15:30 Beijing time. The yield on two-year UK bonds fell by 4.8 basis points to 3.969%, also briefly falling to 3.943% at 16:01.

Safe-haven demand and positive economic data drove the U.S. dollar index to rise for the fourth consecutive day this week to 102, hitting a six-week high. The euro fell for five consecutive days, marking the longest period in five months. The British pound fell by over 1%, its largest drop in nearly six months since April 10. The Japanese yen briefly fell below 147 to a six-week low. The offshore Chinese yuan fell for five consecutive days below 7.05, wiping out the gains since last Tuesday. Bitcoin briefly fell below $0.06 million:

• U.S. Dollar: The DXY U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.4% to break through 102, reaching the highest level in over six weeks since August 19. The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.32% to 1232.92 points, trading in a range of 1228.94-1234.53 points intraday.

• Non-US currencies fell across the board: the euro against the US dollar fell the most by 0.3% and approached 1.10, hitting a three-week low since September 12. The British pound against the US dollar fell the most by 174 points or 1.3%, once breaking below 1.31 to the lowest level since September 12 and the largest drop in nearly half a year, with the pound against the euro seeing its biggest daily drop in two years. Swiss inflation data was weaker than expected, raising further expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the Swiss franc to fall to a three-week low.

• On the news front, the Governor of the Bank of England has recently been dovish, stating on Thursday that if there is more bullish news about inflation, they may be "more proactive" in rate cuts. Market expectations for an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank have greatly increased, with the euro falling over 1% this week and approaching key technical levels. Some analysts suggest that geopolitical risks have increased this week, along with a significant increase in expectations of monetary policy easing outside the United States, helping the US dollar rebound from a one-month low last Friday.

• Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen against the US dollar fell the most by 0.5% at the beginning of US stock trading, once breaking below 147 to a six-week low since August 20, trading in a range of 146.29-147.24 yen during the day. A dovish member of the Bank of Japan opposed a rate hike in July, reinforcing the market's view that the Bank of Japan will not rush to raise rates.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi against the US dollar fell the most by 182 basis points to 7.05 yuan, erasing gains since last Tuesday, and fell by 151 basis points at the close, trading overall in the range of 7.0355-7.0552 yuan during the day.

• Cryptocurrencies: Escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened risk appetite, with the largest market capitalization leader Bitcoin falling over 1% and falling below $60,000, the first time since September 18, rebounding close to $61,000 at the end of the US stock trading. The second largest Ethereum fell over 5% to approach $2,300, marking a two-week low, but significantly narrowed its losses at the close. In New York, at the close, the CME Bitcoin Futures main contract traded at $61,010, roughly unchanged from Wednesday, trading in the range of $60,070.00-61,688.00 during the session. CME Ethereum Futures DCR main contract quoted $2,348.50, down 1.53% from Wednesday.

Concerns about an escalation of conflicts in the Middle East leading to supply disruptions, especially fears of Israeli strikes on Iran's oil infrastructure, caused oil prices to rise for three consecutive days, making it the longest period since August. US crude oil rose by 5.5% to nearly $74, Brent crude oil rose by 5% to exceed $77, both the highest in over four weeks. Oil prices in the pre-market trading of US stocks had halved their gains to 1% as news emerged that Libya would resume oil production:

• US Crude Oil: WTI November crude oil futures closed up $3.61, up nearly 5.15%, at $73.71 per barrel, reaching a four-week high since September 3, rising by $3.87 or 5.5% to approach $74, retesting the daily high at the end of the day.

• Brent Crude Oil: Brent December crude oil futures closed up $3.72, up 5.03%, at $77.62 per barrel, rising by $3.95 or 5.3% to exceed $77, reaching the highest level in nearly five weeks since August 30.

• On the news front, pre-market trading in US stocks saw oil prices double to 1%, with US oil hovering around $71, while Brent oil fell below $75, mainly due to reports that Libya will resume oil production. Analysts at Citi and others mentioned that the idle oil production capacity of OPEC+ is suppressing the rise in oil prices, but potential Israeli retaliation against Iran may raise concerns about the interruption of the Hormuz Strait. Call options trading for Brent oil on Wednesday hit a record high, especially the $100 per barrel contract.

• Natural Gas: NYMEX November natural gas futures closed up 2.91% at $2.970 per million British thermal units. European benchmark TTF Netherlands natural gas futures rose over 3%, returning to a four-week high.

Expectations of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve faded, with the US dollar and US bond yields rebounding together, putting pressure on gold prices. However, safe-haven buying due to geopolitical tensions briefly pushed gold prices up in the afternoon, not far from historic highs. London copper fell nearly 2%, falling below the psychological $0.01 million level.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures turned higher by 0.28% to $2677.30 per ounce at the close. Spot gold plunged nearly $19 or 0.7% at the start of US stock trading, hitting a daily low of $2640, then briefly rebounded and briefly exceeded $2660 after the noon session.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 1.33% to $32.345 per ounce at the close. Spot silver rose over 1% to surpass $32 at one point.

• London industrial metals generally declined: LME copper futures closed down $218, a decrease of 2.16%, at $9866 per ton. LME aluminum futures fell $50, a decrease of around 1.87%, to $2629 per ton. LME zinc futures dropped $50, down over 1.57%, to $3124 per ton. LME lead futures fell $8, to $2142 per ton. LME nickel futures slipped $564, over 3.10%, to $17589 per ton. LME tin futures declined $184, to $33709 per ton. LME cobalt futures remained flat at $24300 per ton.

• Additionally, India unexpectedly relaxed export restrictions, leading to a sharp 11% drop in the Asian benchmark rice price, marking its largest decline in sixteen years.

Editor/Lambor