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Pulling Back 3.1% This Week, Agnico Eagle Mines' NYSE:AEM) One-year Decline in Earnings May Be Coming Into Investors Focus

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 3 22:15

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. To wit, the Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM) share price is 88% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 34% (not including dividends) in the same period. So that should have shareholders smiling. Also impressive, the stock is up 53% over three years, making long term shareholders happy, too.

Although Agnico Eagle Mines has shed US$1.3b from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last twelve months, Agnico Eagle Mines actually shrank its EPS by 76%.

So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Indeed, when EPS is declining but the share price is up, it often means the market is considering other factors.

We doubt the modest 2.0% dividend yield is doing much to support the share price. However the year on year revenue growth of 21% would help. Many businesses do go through a phase where they have to forgo some profits to drive business development, and sometimes its for the best.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

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NYSE:AEM Earnings and Revenue Growth October 3rd 2024

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Agnico Eagle Mines

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Agnico Eagle Mines the TSR over the last 1 year was 93%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Agnico Eagle Mines shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 93% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 11%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Agnico Eagle Mines is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

Agnico Eagle Mines is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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