智驾降本路线清晰，纯视觉方案2024Q4 上车小鹏智能驾驶功能主要分为：（1）现在，轻地图，全国都能开到全国都好用；（2）2024 年末，轻雷达，轻地图，实现门到门智能驾驶；（3）2025 年下半年，无限接近L3，百公里接管小于1 次；（4） 2026 年，部分低速场景，人不在驾驶位开车。Incidents:
On October 2, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced delivery data for September. In September 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 21,352 new vehicles, up 39% year on year and 52% month on month. From January to September 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 98,561 new vehicles, an increase of 21% over the previous year.
MONA M03 was a hit when it was launched. The company's delivery capacity was steadily improving, and Xiaopeng Motor's delivery capacity was steadily improving, and delivery reached a record high in September. In September 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 21,352 new vehicles, up 39% year on year and 52% month on month. Xiaopeng MONA M03 was launched on August 28. There are three new SKUs, each priced at 0.1198/0.1298/0.1558 million yuan. 48 hours after launch, the number was over 0.03 million. After being officially launched in September, it quickly became the best-selling A-class pure electric sedan.
The smart driving route is clear, and the pure visual solution 2024Q4 is mainly divided into: (1) now, light maps can be used all over the country; (2) at the end of 2024, light radar and light maps can achieve door-to-door intelligent driving; (3) in the second half of 2025, infinitely close to L3, 100 km takeover less than 1 time; (4) 2026, in some low-speed scenarios, people are not driving in the driver's seat.
At the same time, Xiaopeng launched an AI Hawkeye vision solution to fully solve problems such as light differences. It is expected to debut on the new Xiaopeng P7+ model in October 2024.
The monthly penetration rate of XNGP Smart Driving in urban areas is over 80%. AI Tianji XOS 5.3.0 began full promotion in September, and the penetration rate of monthly active users of XNGP Urban Smart Driving reached 83%. On September 25, AI Tianji XOS 5.3.0 launched full push, bringing users 32 feature updates and 38 performance upgrades. With the support of an end-to-end AI model, Xiaopeng AI smart driving can achieve the ability to “drive freely on open roads, easily pass ETC, and turn around super silkly.”
Smart global collaboration upgrade, Xiaopeng is expected to be Nirvana
We expect the company's sales volume in 2024/2025/2026 to be 0.18/0.45/0.67 million vehicles, with corresponding revenue of 43.6/79.3/104.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%/82%/32%, respectively. Net profit to mother was -5.05/-0.5/2.3 billion yuan, respectively. The new model is about to be launched, and it is expected to reach an inflection point in sales. The iterative catalyst for intelligent driving and the pace of model launch are expected to help the company reverse financial data, cooperate with the public, or further expand the company's revenue and technical capabilities. Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The speed of implementation of intelligent and large models falls short of expectations. The passenger car price war may affect subsequent sales, and the transformation from technology to sales falls short of expectations.