根据花旗集团估计，若以色列对伊朗石油出口设施进行重大打击，可能会让市场每天的供应量减少150万桶。分析师Francesco Martoccia等人在一份报告中说，如果攻击下游设施这类的小型基础设施，供应可能会减少30万-45万桶。Oil is rising for the third day in a row, and traders are evaluating supply risks in the Middle East. Israel is expected to retaliate against Iran's missile attack earlier this week.
Brent crude rose to $75 per barrel, which is expected to record the longest continuous rise since August. West Texas Intermediate Oil is close to $71. Israel threatened to retaliate against Iran, while US President Joe Biden said the country should avoid attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.
The recent crisis in the Middle East shocked the oil market, and Israel's confrontation with Iran and its proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere has continued for a year. The region accounts for about one-third of the world's total oil supply, and traders are concerned that oil supply may be affected if energy facilities are attacked or oil routes are blocked.
According to Citigroup estimates, a major strike by Israel on Iran's oil export facilities could reduce the daily supply of the market by 1.5 million barrels. Analyst Francesco Martoccia and others said in a report that if small infrastructure such as downstream facilities are attacked, supply may be reduced by 0.3 million-0.45 million barrels.