对中国食品的基本假设认为，碳酸饮料需求近期仍然疲软，不过公司的整体运营依旧稳健，销售额录得中单位数增长。利润率逐步增加，预计2023-2025年销售复合年增长率-1%， 同期盈利复合年增长率为1%。Morgan Stanley lowered the earnings forecast for China Foods for the years 2024-2026 by 4-5%.
According to the Securities Times app, Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that the target price of China Foods (00506) has been slightly lowered by 11.8%, from HK$3.4 to HK$3, mainly due to the reduction in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026, maintaining a rating 'synchronized with the broader market'.
The bank pointed out that they will lower the earnings forecast per share for China Foods for the years 2024-2026 by 4-5%, primarily reflecting: 1) a forecasted decrease in sales of 12-13%, considering weak dining demand recovery, soft sales of carbonated drinks, competitive pricing of drinking water, and other factors; 2) assuming a 0.8 percentage point decrease in gross margin for 2024, and 0.4 and 0.3 percentage point decreases for 2025 and 2026 respectively; 3) with the company reducing promotional activities, assuming a decrease of 1.2-1.4 percentage points in operating expenses.
The basic assumptions for China Foods suggest that the demand for carbonated drinks remains weak in the near term, however, the company's overall operation remains stable, with sales recording low to mid-single-digit growth. Profit margins are gradually increasing, and a compound annual growth rate of -1% for sales and 1% for profit is expected for 2023-2025.
