JPMorgan's report states that the sales of the Apple (AAPL.US) iPhone 16 series have exceeded one week (pre-orders started on September 13, and the official release began on September 20). Early signs indicate a strong performance in the product cycle, although the release of high-end models lacks early momentum compared to previous cycles.

As a result, the bank has lowered its recent iPhone sales volume forecast, with the current expectation of total iPhone sales in the second half of the year to be around 0.126 billion units (compared to the previous forecast of 0.13 billion units and 0.132 billion units a year ago). However, the outlook for the mid-term artificial intelligence cycle remains unchanged, with the recent estimate adjustment only representing a mild boost in sales in the later stages of the cycle.

Although JPMorgan has revised down its recent revenue and profit forecasts due to the slower start of the AI cycle than originally expected, the outlook for the next year remains largely unchanged. This is because the upgrade cycle for AI is still expected to continue for many years, providing the stock with steady upward opportunities. They reaffirm the target price of $265 and a "shareholding" rating.

JPMorgan stated that it moderately lowered its iPhone shipment forecast for the first fiscal quarter ending December this year to 76 million units.