In the US, the September 'small non-farm' ADP private sector employment exceeded expectations, with a revision to previous numbers, but wage growth declined again. US bond yields and the US dollar rose, as the market continued to support the logic that the Fed does not need to significantly cut interest rates next. This year's FOMC, Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that the median policy expectation is another 50 basis points rate cut this year, as there is significant uncertainty in inflation and employment prospects.

The market is focused on the US September non-farm employment report to be released on Friday, with an expected increase in new jobs from the previous value of 0.142 million to 0.15 million. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. Traders predict less than a 39% possibility of a significant 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in November. At the same time, several ECB officials including hawkish member Schnabel hinted at supporting a rate cut in October, leading to the Euro falling for four days.

Tensions in the Middle East escalated, increasing market anxiety. Major US indices opened lower for two consecutive days, with the Dow falling nearly 190 points at the opening bell. According to CCTV news, the Iranian president warned that if Israel launches retaliatory strikes, Iran will respond more strongly. US President Biden stated he does not support an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Oil prices rose nearly 4% due to concerns about an Israeli attack on Iran's oil industry.

Japan's new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated that the current economic situation in Japan is not suitable for another interest rate hike. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda signaled dovishness, avoiding reiterating a commitment to further rate hikes. Instead, discussions focused on the risks facing the economy, causing the Yen to plummet by 2%, dropping below 146. Despite the general decline in US stocks, the China concept index continued to rise against the trend, initially surging by over 5% to the highest level since February 2023.

An hour after the opening bell, US stocks began to turn upwards. Nvidia rose by 1.6%, leading a rebound in tech stocks. The chip index surged by 2.5% at one point, but after midday, US stocks turned down again. By the closing bell, they had rebounded, with only small-cap stocks still falling. The 'fear index' VIX rose above 20 early in the US trading session, then declined. Tesla fell by 6.4% at one point. The China concept index rose by 6.5% before closing up by nearly 5%, reaching the highest level since February last year.

• US stock indices rose slightly across the board, with only small-cap stocks still falling. The S&P 500 index closed up 0.79 points, a 0.01% increase, at 5709.54 points. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by 39.55 points, up 0.09%, to 42196.52 points. The Nasdaq, dominated by tech stocks, rose by 14.76 points, a 0.08% increase, to 17925.12 points. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.15%. The Nasdaq Tech Market Cap Index (NDXTMC), reflecting the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech components, closed up by 0.47%. The Russell 2000 small-cap stock index, more sensitive to economic cycles, fell by 0.09%. The 'fear index' VIX dropped by nearly 2%, falling below 19.

• US market sector ETFs closed with mixed results, with the semiconductor ETF rising by nearly 1.5%, the energy sector ETF rising by over 1%, and the technology sector ETF gaining more than 0.5%. Global tech stock ETFs also saw gains close to 0.5%. In contrast, the global aviation industry ETF fell by over 1%, while daily consumer goods and optional consumer goods ETFs each saw a decrease of nearly 1%.

• The S&P 500 Index's 11 sectors showed mixed performance. The energy sector continued to rise by 1.12% due to the Middle East situation, while the information technology/technology sector rose by 0.59%. The consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors each fell by 0.78%. The communications services sector dropped by 0.44%, the real estate sector fell by 0.37%, and the materials sector declined by 0.33%.

• In terms of research and strategy, Scott Rubner, Global Head of Market Directors and Tactical Experts at Goldman Sachs, believes that the upward momentum in the US stock market may push the S&P index above 6000 points by the end of December, exceeding his year-end target. However, it may still experience a round of volatility in October. Strategically, he sees a bearish outlook for the next three weeks in the US stock market, although the stock market tends to rise after the US presidential election. Strategas Securities states that the US stock market has historically benefited from Chinese stimulus plans and credit expansion phases.

• Among the 'Seven Sisters of Technology,' only Nvidia and Apple saw gains. Apple closed up by 0.25%, Nvidia rose by 1.58%, Tesla fell by 6.4% before closing with a 3.49% decline, Microsoft dropped by 0.85%, Google Class A fell by 0.68%, Meta slid by 0.63% from its recent high, and Amazon dropped by 0.20%.

• In terms of news, Tesla's third-quarter delivery volume grew year-over-year for the first time this year but still fell short of market expectations. Amazon plans to increase the number of ads on Prime Video. Microsoft will invest 4.3 billion euros in Italy for the field of artificial intelligence and expand its cloud computing business scale. OpenAI raised $6.6 billion in its latest round of financing, with a valuation of $157 billion. Thrive Capital led the investment, with participants including Fidelity, Microsoft, Nvidia, and SoftBank. Following OpenAI, Google is actively developing reasoning AI software. Nvidia rose by 1.6% after hours, with CEO Huang Renxun mentioning the 'crazy' demand situation for its Blackwell series chips in the market.

• Chip stocks rose across the board. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose by 1.5% after a 2.5% increase, while the industry ETF SOXX closed with a 1.4% gain. Nvidia's two times long ETF rose by 3.2%. Intel fell by 1.3%, TSMC ADR rose by 2.2%, Broadcom rose by 1.9%, Arm Holdings rose by 0.7%, Micron Technology fell by 0.5%, Applied Materials rose by 2%, ASML ADR rose by 1.2%, KLA Corp rose by 3.1%, AMD slightly rose, Qualcomm rose by 1.5%.

• AI concept stocks saw more gains than losses. Dell Technologies closed up by 0.3%, Super Micro Computer rose by 3.6%. Serve Robotics fell by 1%, CrowdStrike rose by 1.9%, BullFrog AI surged by 20.8%, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company in which Nvidia holds shares, rose by 3.7%, BigBear.ai went up by 0.4%, C3.ai rose by 1.3%, Snowflake fell by 0.5%, Oracle rose by 0.3%, and Palantir rose by 2.8%.

• Chinese concept stocks continued their strong upward trend. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 4.93% after a 6.5% increase, reaching its highest level since February last year. The China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 7.7%, the China Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 6.4%, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) soared over 21.8%, and the FTSE China 3x Bear ETF (YANG) fell by nearly 22%. The FTSE A50 Index futures continued to rise in overnight trading by 1.91%, closing at 15,116.000 points.

• In the hot China concept stocks, Agora rose nearly 134% and closed up over 79%. OpenAI has released a real-time API voice partner, with Agora included. Agora is a sister company to Agora. Alibaba and Nio rose over 2%, JD.com, Baidu, Pinduoduo, Futu Holdings, Li Auto Inc rose over 4%, Xpeng rose over 3%, Bilibili rose nearly 11%, Fangdd Network rose over 29%.

• Other key stocks: 1) Nike once fell 8.3%, the largest drop since June 28, closing down 6.8%, quarterly revenue below expectations and withdrawal of full-year performance guidance, delayed Investor Day due to CEO change. 2) Health insurance giant Humana plummeted over 23% and then closed down nearly 12%, with the proportion of members choosing its top medical insurance plan in 2025 sharply decreasing, potentially impacting revenue in 2026, while competitors CVS Health and UnitedHealth rose over 1%.

Middle East tension caused European stocks to fluctuate throughout the day, with the pan-European index initially rising 0.4%, then turning downward to the deepest point of 0.4%, before slightly recovering at the end of the day. Defense stocks rose, the oil and gas sector followed the rise in oil prices, only German and Italian stocks closed down in national indices:

STOXX 600 index in Europe closed up 0.05% at 521.14 points. STOXX 50 index in the Eurozone closed up 0.18% at 4963.29 points. FTSE All-World 300 index closed up 0.06% at 2063.11 points.

Germany's DAX 30 index closed down 0.64%, France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.05%, Italy's FTSE MIB index closed down 0.26%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.16%.

Investors weigh economic and geopolitical prospects, with bond yields in Europe and the US rising, and long-term bond yields showing a larger increase, the highest rise in 2-year US bond yields approaching 3.66%, and 10-year US bond yields briefly rising over 8 basis points and briefly breaking through 3.80% after the unexpected rebound in ADP data released, marking the highest in the past four weeks since September 4:

• US Bonds: At the close, the yield on the 10-year US benchmark treasury bond rose by 5.50 basis points to 3.7866%, with trading between 3.8152% - 3.7221% during the day. The 2-year US bond yield rose by 3.09 basis points to 3.6352%.

• Eurozone Bonds: At the close, the 10-year German bond yield rose by 5.5 basis points to 2.092%, moving away from the lowest since January created yesterday, trading within the range of 2.116% - 2.045% during the day. The 2-year German bond yield rose by 2 basis points. The UK's 10-year treasury bond yield rose by 8.6 basis points, while the 2-year UK bond yield rose by 6.2 basis points.

Positive surprise in employment data drove the US Dollar Index to rise for the third consecutive day this week, nearing 101.70, hitting the highest level in nearly three weeks since September 12. The Euro has fallen for four consecutive days, with many officials suppressing the possibility of interest rate hikes. The Yen fell 2%, consecutively breaking through the levels of 144 to 146 to a four-week low, marking the largest drop in nearly two months since August 7, while the offshore Renminbi slightly declined below 7.03, erasing gains since last Wednesday.

• USD: The US dollar index DXY rose by 0.5% to 101.69, also rising by 0.5% yesterday, marking the largest weekly increase in a week.

• Non-dollar currencies generally down: The euro fell the deepest by 0.3% to its lowest level since September 12, dropping by 0.6% yesterday, marking the largest decline in nearly four months. The British pound once fell by 0.3%, hitting a two-week low, having dropped by 1% yesterday.

• Japanese Yen: The Japanese Yen fell by about 2% against the US dollar, dropping below 144 to 146 range to a four-week low, as the new Prime Minister and Bank of Japan Governor are reducing the possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates again. Analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group predict that investors will rebuild short positions.

• Offshore Renminbi (CNH): The offshore Renminbi against the US dollar edged lower, still below 7.03 yuan, with gains since last Wednesday, dropping by 62 points at the close, trading overall in the range of 7.0061-7.0390 yuan during the session.

• Cryptocurrencies: The escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened risk appetite, with the largest market capitalization leader Bitcoin briefly falling to the level of $0.06 million, rebounding during US regular trading hours to over $0.061 million. The second-largest Ethereum still dropped by over 3% to below $2400 to a near two-week low. In the late session in New York, CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract reported $61,130.00, down by 1.35% from Tuesday's late session. CME Ether futures DCR main contract reported $2394.50, down by 4.07% from Monday.

OPEC+'s production increase expectation offset the impact of the Middle East situation, with international oil prices rising and then falling to close up by 0.4%, extending gains for two consecutive days. WTI prices once increased nearly 4% during US trading hours, breaking through $72, while Brent oil briefly rose above $76 per barrel to its highest level in four weeks, but gave back most gains due to OPEC+'s plan to start increasing production in December and Saudi Arabia's implicit threat of price wars against non-compliant countries.

• US oil: WTI November crude oil futures rose by $0.27, up by 0.39%, to $70.10 per barrel, with US stocks initially rising by $2.65 or 3.6% and breaking through $72, reaching the highest level in nearly two weeks since September 19.

• Brent oil: Brent December crude oil futures rose by $0.34, up by 0.46%, to $73.90 per barrel, with US stocks initially rising by $2.58 or 3.5%, briefly surpassing $76, reaching the highest level in four weeks since September 3.

• On the news front, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by nearly 3.9 million barrels last week, exceeding analysts' expectations of a 1.3 million-barrel decline and the previous decrease of nearly 4.8 million barrels, indicating weak demand. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee emphasized the importance of achieving full compliance and production compensation at the meeting, with the next meeting scheduled for December 1. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that OPEC+ is still committed to the (end-of-year increase) production decision reached earlier and remains optimistic about the global oil demand outlook. Goldman Sachs believes that given the high global spare oil production capacity and limited actual production disruptions, geopolitical risk premiums should remain moderate.

• Natural Gas: NYMEX November natural gas futures closed down 0.35% at $2.8860 per million British thermal units. The European benchmark TTF Netherlands natural gas futures fell over 2% at one point, moving away from the recent four-week highs.

Investors are focusing on U.S. economic data. The upward momentum in gold pauses, but silver continues to rise, surging by 2.8% at one point. Despite the rise in U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar, the demand outlook boosts London Metal Exchange prices across the board, with London copper breaking above the 0.01 million USD psychological integer level.

• Gold: COMEX December gold futures fell 0.48% to $2677.30 per ounce at the close. Spot gold plunged more than $22 or 0.8% to just below $2640, but the late sell-off was halved, returning above $2650 by the close.

• Silver: COMEX December silver futures rose 0.99% to $32.055 per ounce at the close. Spot silver surged up to 2.8%, breaking above $32 at one point, but the late gains narrowed to 1% trading at $31.78 by the end of the day.

• London Industrial Metals Rise: LME copper futures closed up $106 or 1.1% at $10,084 per ton. LME aluminum futures closed up $30 or 1.1% at $2,678 per ton. LME zinc futures closed up $27 or 0.9% at $3,174 per ton. LME lead futures closed up $42 or approximately 25, at $2,151 per ton. LME nickel futures rose $442 or 2.5% to $18,153 per ton. LME tin futures closed up $14 at $33,893 per ton. LME cobalt futures remained flat at $24,300 per ton.

Editor/Lambor