Goldman Sachs experts continue to be optimistic about Chinese concept stocks, reiterating that "this time is different" in trade with China, suggesting that the S&P may break through 6000 points by the end of the year.

wallstreetcn · Oct 3 07:43

Rubner称近期美股供需不匹配，市场波动偏下行，今年美股大买家上市公司直到10月25日才“解封”回购。而年末美股会迎来季节性反弹，1928年来，标普每年10月27日至年底平均涨4%。他重申中国交易“这次不一样”，称对中国股票的每日需求前所未有。

准确预测到今年夏末美股回调的研究资金流专家Scott Rubner预计，到今年底，美股的涨势可能超出他的预期，标普500指数年底可能突破目标点位6000点，但本月内这几周美股可能下跌，同时重申看好中国股市。

在美东时间10月2日周三发布的报告中，高盛全球市场部董事总经理Rubner写道：

“我看好美股始于10月28日的年底反弹，我担心我（给标普500设的）6000点目标位太低了。”

Rubner称，市场的季节性顺风是他对美股预测的关键支柱。根据他的估算，1928 年以来的数据显示，标普500指数每年从10月27日到年底平均上涨约4%。此外，他指出，在选举年，美国总统大选后，随着投资者在选举风险消退后将现金转向投入股市，美股往往会上涨。

不过，Rubner警告，美股年末的上涨是在经历一段动荡之后的走势，一些不利因素可能本月晚些时候消减，未来几周，他看空美股。报告写道：

“我对未来三周的美国股市持战术性看跌态度。”

Rubner称，未来几周他准备迎接更大的波动，以及市场针对每日头条新闻和主题的过度交易。美股存在供需不匹配，并且偏向下行。待未来三周波动结束后，美股的供应可能超过需求。

他指出，过去两日，标普500指数的Gamma下跌140亿美元，这是高盛数据集有纪录以来最大的两日跌幅。这意味着，市场现在可以更有能力自由地波动。“我认为市场正在向下移动。” 在Gamma大跌后，做市商不再需要逢低买入股票，保持仓位中性。

华尔街见闻9月提到，Rubner当月报告称，上市公司已经是今年美股最大的买家，高盛估算，上市公司的股票回购静默期将在10月25日截止。

本次Rubner报告再次提到企业回购这个影响美股的因素，重申最近回购静默期的截止日是10月25日，并指出，在静默期内，企业的可回购规模会减少35%。截至9月20日，今年内企业回购的授权规模达到9740亿美元。年末的11月和12月是一年之中回购执行占比最高的两个月窗口期。

因此，到10月25日回购窗口重启后，上市公司料将再次成为买家，支持对美股的需求。

Rubner此前的报告提到，10月属于财年末可能令热门共同基金对价格走势产生不利影响，或者已经产生不利影响，因为年初至今表现不佳的基金可能因报税损失而抛售，年初至今表现优异的基金可能会减持或获利回吐。

本次Rubner报告称，有大批共同基金的财年末日期为今年的万圣节10月31日。高盛研究发现，10月31日属于自身财年末的共同基金共有756只，合计管理资产价值1.853万亿美元。

报告还提到财报季的影响，将截至10月25日一周比作美股的财报季“超级碗”，称占标普500市值61%的成分股公司将在美国大选前的两周发布财报。而华尔街对企业盈利的预期门槛并不低，对科技巨头“七姐妹”——苹果、微软、英伟达、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、Facebook母公司Meta和特斯拉的期望值更是高。

提到四季度的季节性反弹，Rubner报告指出，提取1928年将近百年的数据可以发现，标普和其他美股主要股指基本上是从10月27日开始反弹。

最后，Rubner在报告中再次表达看好中国股市，继9月末报告后重申“中国交易”“这次不一样”。报告称：

“我从未见过对中国股票的每日需求如此之大：我甚至不认为我们已经回到基准指数权重。”

编辑/lambor

Rubner said that the recent mismatch between supply and demand in the US stock market has led to downward market volatility. This year, major buyers in the US stock market companies did not 'unleash' share buybacks until October 25th. However, the end of the year may see a seasonal rebound in the US stock market. Since 1928, the S&P has averaged a 4% increase from October 27 to the end of the year each year. He reiterated that the current Chinese trade situation is 'different', citing unprecedented daily demand for Chinese stocks.

Research fund flow expert Scott Rubner, who accurately predicted the US stock market correction by the end of this summer, expects that by the end of the year, the upward trend in the US stock market may exceed his expectations. The s&p 500 index may break through the target of 6000 points by the end of the year, but over the next few weeks, the US stock market may decline. He also reiterated his bullish view on the Chinese stock market.

In a report released on Wednesday, October 2nd, US Eastern Time, Goldman Sachs Global Markets Director Rubner wrote:

"I am bullish on the US stock market starting with the year-end rebound on October 28th. I am concerned that my (set for s&p 500) target of 6000 points may be too low."

Rubner stated that the seasonal tailwind in the market is a key pillar of his US stock market predictions. According to his estimates, data since 1928 shows that the s&p 500 index averages an approximately 4% increase from October 27 to the end of the year annually. Additionally, he pointed out that in election years, post-US presidential elections, as investors shift cash into stocks with reduced election risks, the US stock market tends to rise.

However, Rubner warned that the year-end rise in the US stock market comes after a period of turbulence, and some unfavorable factors may diminish later this month. In the coming weeks, he holds a bearish view on the US stock market. The report stated:

"I have a tactical bearish outlook on the American stock market for the next three weeks."

Rubner mentioned that in the next few weeks, he is preparing for greater volatility and excessive trading in response to daily headlines and themes in the market. There is a mismatch between supply and demand in the US stock market, leaning towards a downtrend. After the volatility in the next three weeks subsides, the supply in the US stock market may exceed demand.

He pointed out that in the past two days, the Gamma of the S&P 500 index has dropped by $14 billion, the largest two-day drop in the history of the Goldman Sachs data set. This means that the market now has more ability to fluctuate freely. "I think the market is moving downwards." After the significant drop in Gamma, market makers no longer need to buy stocks on dips, maintaining a neutral position.

Wall Street Journal mentioned in September that Rubner's report stated that public companies have been the largest buyers of US stocks this year. Goldman Sachs estimates that the stock buyback blackout period for public companies will end on October 25.

The latest Rubner report once again mentioned the factor influencing the US stock market, corporate buybacks, reiterating that the recent blackout period for buybacks will end on October 25, and pointing out that during the blackout period, the size of company buybacks will decrease by 35%. As of September 20, the total authorization for corporate buybacks this year has reached $974 billion. The months of November and December at the end of the year are the two months with the highest proportion of buyback execution in a year.

Therefore, after the buyback window reopens on October 25, public companies are expected to once again become buyers, supporting the demand for US stocks.

Rubner's previous report mentioned that October, as the end of the fiscal year, may have an adverse impact on the price trend of popular mutual funds, or may have already had an adverse impact. Mutual funds that have performed poorly since the beginning of the year may sell off due to tax losses, while mutual funds that have performed well since the beginning of the year may reduce their holdings or take profit.

The Rubner report mentioned that the fiscal year end date for a large number of mutual funds is Halloween, October 31st this year. Goldman Sachs research found that there are 756 mutual funds with their fiscal year ending on October 31st, with a total managed asset value of $1.853 trillion.

The report also mentions the impact of earnings season, comparing the week leading up to October 25 to the 'Super Bowl' of the US stock earnings season, stating that the 61% of S&P 500 market cap components will release earnings reports in the two weeks leading up to the US election. Wall Street's expectations for corporate earnings are high, especially for the 'Big Seven' technology giants - Apple, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook parent Meta, and Tesla.

Referring to the seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter, the Rubner report points out that historical data dating back to 1928 shows that the S&P 500 and other major US stock indices typically start rebounding from October 27th.

Finally, Rubner once again expressed bullish on the Chinese stock market in the report, reaffirming 'Chinese trade' 'This time is different' after the report at the end of September. The report states:

'I have never seen such a high daily demand for Chinese stocks: I don't even think we have returned to the benchmark index weight.'

Editor/Lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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重申中国交易“这次不一样”！高盛专家继续唱多中概，称年底标普或突破6000点

Goldman Sachs experts continue to be optimistic about Chinese concept stocks, reiterating that "this time is different" in trade with China, suggesting that the S&P may break through 6000 points by the end of the year.

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