数据显示，特斯拉第三季度交付量462890辆，未达市场预估的463897辆，但汽车产量469796辆，高于市场预估465828辆。Although the delivery volume in the third quarter reversed the decline of the previous two quarters, achieving year-on-year growth, it fell short of expectations, with sales volume in the first three quarters of this year falling by 2.3% year-on-year. Moreover, the increase in sales volume in the third quarter is related to active promotions, inevitably suppressing the highly anticipated profit margin. Tesla's stock initially fell by 6.4%, and the next major event is the autonomous taxi event on October 10th.
On Wednesday, October 2nd, the electric car giant Tesla released the delivery and production data for the third quarter of this year. Although this is Tesla's first quarter of the year to achieve growth in car sales, the quarterly delivery volume still fell short of market expectations, leading to a 6.4% initial drop in stock prices.
The next major event is the highly anticipated Tesla 'Robotaxi' event on October 10th next week, which is expected to showcase a prototype of a dedicated robot taxi and emphasize the company's new AI-driven autonomous driving technology strategy.
Data shows that Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter was 462,890 vehicles, slightly below the market estimate of 463,897 vehicles, but the car production was 469,796 vehicles, exceeding the market estimate of 465,828 vehicles.
In the same period last year, the delivery volume was 435,059 vehicles, and the production volume was 430,488 vehicles. In the second quarter of 2024, the delivery volume was 443,956 vehicles, and the production volume was 410,831 vehicles. This means that Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter increased by 6.4% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, while the production volume increased by 9.1% year-on-year and 14.4% quarter-on-quarter.
In the third quarter of this year, the delivery volume of Model 3 and Y was 439,975 vehicles, exceeding the market estimate of 435,920 vehicles. The production volume of Model 3 and Y was 443,668 vehicles, also higher than the market estimate of 434,051 vehicles.
This indicates that Tesla's sales are mostly from the smaller and lower-priced Model 3 and Y cars, while higher-priced models like Model X, S, and the new electric pickup Cyber Truck only sold 22,915 units.
Tesla's delivery volume is closest to its sales volume, making it one of Wall Street's most closely watched indicators. Some analysts have said that although Tesla achieved a year-on-year sales growth in the third quarter of this year, reversing the decline in the previous two quarters, it is not enough to satisfy investors.
On one hand, this means that the company must achieve a record high delivery volume of 516,344 vehicles in the fourth quarter to reach last year's delivery level of 1.81 million vehicles. Any shortfall could lead to Tesla's first annual decline in delivery volume. Some social media users have stated that Tesla's sales in the first three quarters of this year were down by 2.3% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, Tesla achieved a sales turnaround in the third quarter through price reductions and increased promotional efforts, which will impact its industry-leading profit margin. This indicator will be the focus when Tesla releases its third-quarter report on October 23. Analysts had previously estimated that Tesla's average car selling price for the third quarter was $42,500, the lowest price in four years.
Some analysts also stated that intense competition from other car manufacturers in the USA and China, as well as inadequate subsidies in Europe, have dragged down Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter. Increased purchase subsidies for electric vehicles in China have been beneficial for Tesla's sales.
A JATO Dynamics report shows that in July this year, BMW took the lead in the European pure electric battery-powered car market for the first time, defeating Tesla whose market share has been steadily eroding. Meanwhile, Tesla only produces fully electric vehicles and may struggle against traditional giants producing hybrid cars.
Wedbush, a well-known technology stock analyst and Tesla bull, Dan Ives, continues to be optimistic, stating that the delivery situation in the third quarter is 'good, taking a step in the right direction,' but stock prices are under pressure due to investors' hope for better results.
"Overall, there has been a significant improvement compared to the first half of this year. We believe that achieving sales of 1.8 million vehicles for the whole year remains a key and important goal. Demand in the Chinese market is heating up, Europe continues to slow down due to economic pressures, and the USA is stabilizing."
However, the securities department of BNP Paribas in France warned that the market's long-term expectations for Tesla are somewhat too high, with the company's sales expectations for 2026 and 2027 being "10% to 15% lower than market expectations" respectively. Tesla executives have also repeatedly warned that the delivery volume growth rate in 2024 will be lower than last year.
