Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.
Author: Li Junling.

The slowdown in recruitment in the medical care industry in the United States poses a threat to the overall stability of the labor market, a sector that has been a major driver of employment growth since 2021. In August, the healthcare industry added only 30,900 jobs, the lowest level in over two years, with significant layoffs particularly in hospitals and nursing institutions. The latest data shows that after a period of rapid catch-up recruitment, labor demand is starting to decrease. Despite the long-term support expected for the continuous expansion of the medical industry due to population aging and the associated increase in medical needs, the growing economic dependence on the healthcare industry for driving growth may lead to a persistent downturn in broader recruitment trends in the short term.

The monthly employment report to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will reveal whether the trend of slowing employment in September continues. Ge Bai, a professor specializing in health policy at Johns Hopkins University, said, "The healthcare industry plays a critical role in the US labor market, and even slight variations in its workforce can have a nationwide impact." She further explained that past job growth in the healthcare industry may have simply reflected the trend of pandemic recovery, whereas now we are seeing some degree of decline.

Despite the surge in recruitment in the healthcare industry after the pandemic, its share of the total US workforce has reached a new high, rising from 7.5% in 1990 to the current 11.2%. The recruitment boom in the healthcare industry peaked in 2021 and has gradually waned since, with job vacancy data showing that compared to pre-pandemic levels, recruitment information increased by 90% during peak season in 2022, but by August it had dropped to 29%. Although the number of job cuts remains relatively low, the recruitment rate as a proportion of total employment is at its lowest level since early 2021.

Svenja Gudell, Chief Economist at the online job platform Indeed, pointed out that despite the overall market cooling down, performance still exceeds pre-pandemic levels. She mentioned that there has been a decrease in demand for nursing institutions, but a 85% increase in demand for doctors.

Both union representatives and financial analysts believe that the gap between employers and workers on compensation issues is growing. The average hourly wage growth rate for non-managerial staff in the medical care industry reached a relative peak in 2011, remaining below the overall economy until the outbreak of the pandemic. From mid-2020 to mid-2022, the wage growth rate for medical care employees exceeded the national average level, but then lagged behind.

Nancy Hagans, Chair of the New York State Nurses Association, stated that due to working conditions and salary reasons, over half of the licensed nurses in the state are currently not working in the profession. 'Hospital companies have been hesitant to hire enough nurses because they think we have the highest wages. Whenever we ask them for a raise, they always say, well, we don't have enough money.'

Despite national data showing a recent decrease in hiring numbers but still very low layoffs, some notable layoff cases have emerged. Texas Children's Hospital, one of the largest pediatric hospitals in the USA, announced a 5% layoff in August, about 1000 people, citing 'historic financial challenges' faced by the industry.

Kevin Holohan, Senior Director of Public Finance at Moody's, stated that this year the proportion of downgrades in medical care debt ratings exceeded the proportion of upgrades, with a ratio of about 1.75:1. This ratio is lower than the 3:1 in 2023. Despite facing broader financial challenges, Holohan still believes that the hiring situation remains strong, but many institutions are facing increasingly difficult choices in terms of staffing.

The recent unemployment rate has risen from a low point of 3.4% last year to 4.2%, economists are paying more and more attention to the monthly employment report. Soft hiring has always been a major factor affecting the Fed's interest rate decisions — leading to the Fed's significant half-point rate cut in September — officials said, if the job market continues to be weak, the Fed may also take similar measures.

In Friday's report, they will pay special attention to medical care work. Bank of America economists stated in a data preview report on Tuesday: 'We still expect medical, education, and government (and to a lesser extent, leisure and hospitality) to continue to drive employment growth.' 'But we note that recent data shows a slowing growth in these 'catch-up' industries as they are approaching pre-pandemic trends.'

Editor / jayden