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It's Down 30% But Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (NYSE:MEG) Could Be Riskier Than It Looks

Simply Wall St ·  Oct 2 18:32

Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Montrose Environmental Group, Inc. (NYSE:MEG) share price has dived 30% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 16% in that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Montrose Environmental Group's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Commercial Services industry is similar at about 1.5x. However, investors might be overlooking a clear opportunity or potential setback if there is no rational basis for the P/S.

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NYSE:MEG Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry October 2nd 2024

What Does Montrose Environmental Group's Recent Performance Look Like?

Recent times have been advantageous for Montrose Environmental Group as its revenues have been rising faster than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/S ratio is moderate because investors think this strong revenue performance might be about to tail off. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Montrose Environmental Group will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Montrose Environmental Group's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

If we review the last year of revenue growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 18%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 43% overall rise in revenue, aided by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have definitely welcomed those medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 13% each year during the coming three years according to the seven analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to only expand by 9.6% per annum, which is noticeably less attractive.

With this information, we find it interesting that Montrose Environmental Group is trading at a fairly similar P/S compared to the industry. Apparently some shareholders are skeptical of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Final Word

Montrose Environmental Group's plummeting stock price has brought its P/S back to a similar region as the rest of the industry. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Despite enticing revenue growth figures that outpace the industry, Montrose Environmental Group's P/S isn't quite what we'd expect. When we see a strong revenue outlook, with growth outpacing the industry, we can only assume potential uncertainty around these figures are what might be placing slight pressure on the P/S ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future revenue could see some volatility.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 3 warning signs for Montrose Environmental Group that we have uncovered.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Montrose Environmental Group, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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