Source: Securities Times.
Author: Pan Yurong

On the first day of the new real estate policies in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen on October 1st, buyers, agents, and developers all started to get excited. The transaction volume in first-tier cities has become significantly active, adding fuel to the capital markets.

On October 2nd, after the opening of the Hong Kong stock market, the real estate sector led the gains, with several stocks still rising by more than 60% as of the deadline for submission.

Shenzhen: The number of signed contracts by agents has increased tenfold.

How hot was the real estate market in Shenzhen on the first day of the new policy? Although it will take some time to complete online signings after paying the down payment to obtain more accurate transaction volume data, some agents have predicted that the transaction volume in Shenzhen on October 1st exceeded 1000 units.

Some real estate agents received deposits transferred by customers overnight, engaging in 'remote buying.' A certain property development achieved 0.2 billion yuan in transactions on the first day of the new policy. Some agents claimed that three units were sold immediately after the new policy was introduced, whereas there were no previous transactions. One real estate agent mentioned that the daily transaction volume on October 1st increased tenfold compared to the previous day. 'The transaction volume is already picking up.'

An online real estate agent stated, 'On the first day after the new policy, 1052 used properties and 831 new properties were transacted, with nearly 2000 units sold in a day.' However, this data has yet to be verified.

$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$The updated market data on October 1st for the second-hand real estate market in Shenzhen shows that there were 11,372 property viewings on that day, an increase of 38% compared to the previous day; the average transaction price was 0.0566 million yuan per square meter, up by 6.9% from the previous day; the number of transactions was 97 units, a decrease of 21% from the previous day; there were 880 new listings, a decrease of 70% from the previous day. There are 482 properties with increased prices, a decrease of 56% from the previous day, and 576 properties with reduced prices, a decrease of 39.7% from the previous day.

According to personnel from Ke Holdings, there is a lagging effect in transaction volume in the above data. The 97 transactions on October 1st represent the number of finalized signings, which typically occur within one month after the initial deposit. It is reported that on October 1st, the number of new property and second-hand home signings by Ke Holdings stood at around 680 taking into account the down payments. These signings will gradually be reflected in the transaction data in the following period.

The cancellation of restricted sales is an important feature of the new policy in Shenzhen. After the removal of restrictions, will it lead to widespread crowding of listings, becoming a key focus of the market.

However, data from Ke Holdings shows that there wasn't a significant immediate response in the number of new listings on the first day of the new policy. Regarding the decrease in the number of new listings on October 1st, there are explanations stating that after the new policy was introduced, Shenzhen lifted the restricted sales, reduced the VAT exemption period from 5 years to 2 years, leading to an increase in the number of new listings, but some property owners also canceled their listings, resulting in an overall decrease in quantity.

The latest market report from Zhuge Zhaofang in Shenzhen shows that on October 2nd, there were 4,139 new property listings, an increase of 6.58% compared to the previous day; there were 970 properties with reduced prices, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the previous day. In terms of listing prices, the average listing price for second-hand homes in Shenzhen by Zhuge Zhaofang today is 0.072 million yuan per square meter, up by 4.05% from September.

Guangzhou: A property salesperson showed nearly a hundred people around properties in the morning.

On September 29th, Guangzhou took the lead among first-tier cities by directly lifting all restrictions on local residents buying homes in the city. Following the removal of restrictions, media visits to the market revealed that there was a noticeable resurgence of interest in the real estate market. Property sales staff worked overtime until 1 a.m., with nearly a hundred property viewings in the morning. Some properties saw double-digit daily transactions, while others experienced a doubling of visitors on weekdays.

According to Ke Holdings data, on October 1st, the average price of second-hand homes in Guangzhou was 0.0299 million yuan per square meter, with a transaction volume of 143 units (signed online), up 10% from the previous day; there were 644 new listings, a decrease of 22% from the previous day; 218 homes saw price increases, a decrease of 58% from the previous day; 927 homes saw price decreases, a decrease of 33% from the previous day; the number of property viewings was 16,047 times, an 89% increase from the previous day.

According to Zhuge looking for a house, the market data for Guangzhou on October 2nd showed an average listing price of 0.0375 million yuan per square meter for second-hand homes, up 5.89% from September. Today, there are 9036 new listings, an increase of 9.81% from yesterday, and 58 homes with price reductions, a decrease of 1% from yesterday.

Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Urban and Rural Planning Institute's Housing Policy Research Center, stated that Guangzhou is a first-tier city and the central city in southern China, with prominent advantages in education and medical care. There are many non-registered residents and migrants, lifting the purchase restrictions could activate residents from other cities within the province to buy properties in Guangzhou, especially in the central areas that were previously restricted. Additionally, Guangzhou's good climate and high-quality medical resources also contribute to stimulating housing demand from retirees from other provinces, especially the north. He expressed that it can be expected that the transaction volume of commercial housing in October will be better than September, laying the foundation for the stable development of the real estate market in the fourth quarter.

Beijing: Some properties for sale are retracting discounts.

Beijing is the city among first-tier cities that released real estate policies the latest. A representative from a Beijing real estate development company stated that with a series of bullish policies being introduced, many individuals who had previously viewed but not purchased properties returned to the sales offices during the holidays.

After the policy announcement, some properties for sale in Beijing posted slogans on social media about retracting discounts, such as a certain property in the western Fourth Ring Road area announcing the restoration of the original discount scheme starting from October 1st, with excess discounts being retracted.

According to Ke Holdings data for Beijing, the latest average listing price on October 2nd was 0.0576 million yuan per square meter, with 525 new listings and 5,867 property viewers.

According to Zhuge looking for a house, for second-hand homes on October 2nd, the average listing price was 0.0595 million yuan per square meter in Beijing, a decrease of 0.5% from September; there were 1,492 new listings today, an increase of 7.29% from yesterday, and 1,064 homes with price reductions today, a decrease of 0.89% from yesterday.

Yan Yuejin, deputy director of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that the most concerning policy in Beijing this time is the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy. In the past, Beijing implemented a requirement for non-Beijing residents to pay social security for 5 years before buying a house, but now it has been adjusted to 2 years for suburban areas outside the Fifth Ring Road and 3 years within the Fifth Ring Road. This time, Beijing specifically targeted Tongzhou District, explicitly unifying the housing purchase criteria in Tongzhou District with the citywide standard. This also means that the housing purchase policy in Tongzhou will be greatly relaxed in the future. Beijing's policy this time demonstrates that local governments are making full use of their autonomous regulatory authority, and also thoroughly implements the directive of the Party Central Committee to stabilize and revitalize the market, which has played a positive role in digesting the real estate market policies in the fourth quarter and boosting the market.

Shanghai: Developers in Shanghai will remain 'open' during the National Day holiday.

Zhuge Zhaofang's Shanghai data shows that on October 2, the average listing price of second-hand houses in Shanghai was 0.0598 million yuan per square meter, a 1.29% decrease compared to September; there were 3031 new houses listed today, a 5.14% increase from yesterday, and 811 homes were reduced in price today, a 0.44% decrease from yesterday.

On October 1st, the first day of the official implementation of the new real estate policies in Shanghai, several media outlets found that there was a noticeable increase in the number of visitors at the sales offices of multiple developments. Some developers even shouted 'open all day' during the National Day holiday. In a new development in Songjiang District, more than ten groups made reservations on October 1st.

Yan Yuejin stated that the four first-tier cities have all made adjustments to their purchase restriction policies, with Guangzhou completely lifting the restrictions, Shenzhen partially lifting them, and Beijing and Shanghai shortening the years of required social security contributions. The policies will have a very positive demonstration effect and will inspire further optimization of policies in various regions. At the same time, it also implies that various new incentive policies will continue to be introduced. It is predicted that the real estate market will see a wave of good trading situations in the fourth quarter, presenting a favorable trend of 'rising volume and prices,' and the bull market in real estate has already begun.

Editor / jayden