FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Post | Middle East Situation Escalates! US oil & gas and defense stocks rise against the market; Blackrock upgrades its rating on China stocks to overweight, china assets party again

Futu News · Oct 2 08:29

热点要闻

中东局势再度升级！伊朗称向以色列发射200枚导弹

以色列军方称，伊朗向以色列发射导弹。目前，耶路撒冷、特拉维夫等地已响起防空警报。以色列军方表示，以军后方司令部已向以色列各地发布救生指南。以色列媒体报道称，伊朗向以色列发射上百枚导弹。以军已要求所有民众躲进避难所。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令萨拉米表示，在10月1日晚的行动，伊朗向以色列发射了200枚导弹。

伊朗称向以色列发射导弹为合法防御，以色列国防军发言人哈加里表示，以空军将继续全力作战，“今晚还将继续在中东发起强力打击”。哈加里说，伊朗1日晚采取了严重的行动，正在将中东局势推向升级。以军将根据政治层的指导，选择地点和时间采取行动。

受中东局势影响，国际油价飙升，黄金小幅上扬

受中东局势影响，油价和避险资产黄金拉升，现货黄金涨超1%一度站上2670美元，WTI原油期货结算价涨2.44%，报69.83美元/桶。布伦特原油期货结算价涨2.59%，报73.56美元/桶。

贝莱德上调中国股票评级至超配

贝莱德投资研究所表示，将中国股票的评级从中性上调至超配。该机构认为，鉴于中国股票相对于发达市场股票的折价接近创记录水平，且存在可能刺激投资者重新入市的催化剂，短期内仍有适度增持中国股票的空间。

美国9月ISM制造业连续六个月萎缩，就业惨淡，价格指数陷入收缩

美国9月ISM制造业的订单量连续第六个月萎缩，导致生产受限，并压低了就业，就业连续第四个月收缩，且恶化程度加深。需求低迷减轻价格压力，物价指数单月跌幅创2023年5月以来最大，至48.3，为今年以来首次陷入收缩区间，显示总体成本下降。

美国8月JOLTS职位空缺意外创三个月新高，自主离职和裁员均下跌

美国8月职位空缺攀升至三个月高位，单月涨幅为去年8月以来最大，超出经济学家的预期。JOLTS数据表明，尽管美国整体的就业增长放缓，但仍然基本稳定。8月自主离职人数大跌至四年来的新低。

日本首相石破茂举行就任后首次记者会，称希望维持货币政策宽松

石破茂表示将制定经济支持措施，表示其政府经济政策的最高优先事项是“将日本拉出通缩”，其中包括提高实际工资和促进企业资本支出。即将上任的经济再生大臣赤泽亮正也表示，日本央行在考虑进一步加息时应该谨慎行事，以确保日本真正战胜通货紧缩。

美股复盘

中东局势加剧！纳指跌1.5%，中概指数逆市涨超5%

由于中东紧张局势加剧，欧美股市周二（10月1日）多数下跌，美股三大指数集体收低。有“恐慌指数”之称的标普500波动率指数（VIX）收于19.26，为9月12日以来的最高水平。

中概股逆市暴涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨5.48%，收于去年8月以来的最高水平。热门中概股中，贝壳涨17.43%，哔哩哔哩涨14.33%，理想汽车涨11.50%，拼多多涨8.03%。

中东局势升级，美股油气股及国防股集体上扬

受中东局势影响，美股油气股走强，阿帕奇石油涨近5%，康菲石油、马拉松石油涨近4%；国防股上扬，洛克希德马丁涨超3%。

中国加大电动车补贴，特斯拉有望今年首次季度销量增长

今晚，特斯拉将正式公布Q3销量数据。彭博社调查分析师的结果显示，分析师们预期，今年第三季度，特斯拉在全球范围的交付量可能约为46.39万辆，较去年同期增长约7%。

巴克莱的分析师Dan Levy预计，三季度特斯拉全球交付47万辆车，其中，“中国市场的强劲表现”对特斯拉来说是及时雨，它“有助于抵消美国和欧洲市场持续疲软的影响。”特斯拉今日小幅收跌超1%。

苹果跌近3%，巴克莱爆关键部件砍单300万，明年准备推出新款iPhone SE

在iPhone 16发布后不久，苹果公司正准备在明年年初宣布推出新款低端手机以及升级版iPad。据知情人士透露，苹果公司即将生产一款更新后的iPhone SE，这将成为其新的入门级机型。匿名人士表示，苹果还计划在同一时间左右发布新款iPad Air和键盘，这些计划尚未公开。此次发布将是iPhone SE自2022年增加5G功能以来的首次更新。

巴克莱称，截至12月的季度，一家台湾主要供应商的iPhone关键半导体部件订单可能削减300万件，加之全球iPhone 16交货时间缩短，都表明需求疲软；中文Apple Intelligence明年才推出也影响用户对新机早期的热情。 $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 今日收跌近3%。

AI数据中心规模太大，微软融资租赁支出将超千亿美元，利润率料承压

AI热潮领头羊微软本月即将发布季度财报。微软此前透露，该公司尚未开始的融资租赁金额飙升至1084亿美元，比上一季度增加了206亿美元，比两年前更是增加了近1000亿美元，其中主要是数据中心租赁。分析认为，数据中心融资租赁飙升虽然有助于增强微软的AI能力，但估计将有损利润率。 $微软 (MSFT.US)$ 今日收跌超2%。

耐克撤回全年业绩指引，新任首席执行官接掌在即，股价夜盘跌近6%

耐克在收入低于预期之后撤回了全年业绩指引，这凸显了即将上任的首席执行官Elliott Hill本月晚些时候接掌时将会面临的挑战。公司首席财务官Matt Friend在分析师电话会议上表示，此举是由于即将进行的领导层过渡。该公司预计第二财季收入下降8%至10%，与第一财季的降幅相似。“虽然取得了一些初步成果，但我们尚未走出困境，”Friend表示。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

港股今日开市，港股通、A股通暂停

A股市场2024年10月1日-10月7日休市（含双休日）；港股市场经历了10月1日的休市，今日正式开市；10月1日-10月7日港股通暂停。

造车新势力“金九”成色足：“理零小”创交付新纪录，蔚来连续5个月交付破两万

10月1日，造车新势力陆续公布了上个月的交付情况。其中，理想汽车、零跑汽车和小鹏汽车均创造最新的交付纪录，蔚来汽车亦连续5个月实现交付量破两万辆，仅哪吒汽车还未走出颓势。

9月理想汽车交付新车53,709辆，同比增长48.94%，创交付新高；第三季度交付152,831辆，同比增长45.4%，今年累计交付341,812辆。

今日关注

关键词：美国9月“小非农”ADP就业人数；美联储理事鲍曼讲话；港股新股卡罗特上市

周三，经济数据方面，欧元区8月失业率、美国9月ADP就业人数将出炉。

财经事件方面，2024年FOMC票委博斯蒂克、巴尔金、2025年FOMC票委柯林斯共同参加一场小组活动；2024年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克发表讲话；2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆在一场活动上致开幕词；美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话。

财报方面， $康尼格拉 (CAG.US)$ 、 $Perimeter Solutions (PRM.US)$ 将于美股盘前发布财报， $李维斯 (LEVI.US)$ 将于美股盘后发布财报。

新股方面，来自中国浙江杭州的厨具品牌$卡罗特 (02549.HK)$ 将于10月2日港股上市。

牛牛晨读：

生活中，你很难接近顶峰，一旦你达到了顶峰，你就很难长久占据这个位置。

——查理·芒格

编辑/lambor

Hot news

Middle East situation escalates again! Iran claims to have launched 200 missiles at Israel.

Israeli military claims Iran has launched missiles at Israel. Currently, air raid sirens have been heard in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and other areas. The Israeli military has stated that the rear command has issued survival guidelines to various areas in Israel. Israeli media reports that Iran has launched hundreds of missiles at Israel. The military has requested all civilians to take shelter in bunkers. The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard, Salami, stated that on the evening of October 1st, Iran launched 200 missiles at Israel.

Iran claims launching missiles at Israel as legal defense. Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson Hagar said the Air Force will continue to fight at full capacity, "Tonight there will be continued strong strikes in the Middle East." Hagar said that Iran took serious action on the evening of the 1st, escalating the situation in the Middle East. The military will take action based on political guidance selecting the location and time.

International oil prices surged and gold rose slightly due to the situation in the Middle East.

Impacted by the Middle East situation, oil prices and Its price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.gold surged, with spot gold rising over 1% to briefly surpass $2,670, WTI crude oil futures settlement price up 2.44% to $69.83 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased by 2.59%, to $73.56 per barrel.

Blackrock upgrades its rating on China stocks to overweight.

Blackrock Investment Institute stated that it has raised the rating of China stocks from neutral to overweight. The institution believes that as the discount of China stocks relative to stocks in developed markets approaches record levels, and there are potential catalysts that could stimulate investors to re-enter the market, there is still moderate room for shareholding China stocks in the short term.

In September, the US ISM manufacturing sector shrank for the sixth consecutive month, with bleak employment and the price index entering a contraction.

In September, the order volume of the US ISM manufacturing sector shrank for the sixth consecutive month, leading to production constraints, lowering employment, and a fourth consecutive month of employment contraction, with the deterioration deepening. Weak demand eases price pressure, with the monthly drop in the price index reaching the largest since May 2023, at 48.3, marking the first contraction range this year, indicating an overall cost decrease.

In August, unexpected three-month high in job vacancies in the US JOLTS, both voluntary quits and layoffs declined.

In August, job vacancies in the US surged to a three-month high, with the largest monthly increase since August last year, exceeding economists' expectations. JOLTS data suggests that despite the overall slowdown in US employment growth, it remains relatively stable. In August, the number of voluntary quits plummeted to a new low in four years.

Prime Minister Shizo Koshiro held his first press conference since taking office, expressing hope to maintain loose monetary policy.

Koshiro stated plans to develop economic support measures, with the top priority of his government's economic policy being to "pull Japan out of deflation," including raising real wages and promoting business capital expenditure. Incoming Minister of Economic Regeneration Ryo Akazawa also stated that the Bank of Japan should proceed with caution when considering further rate hikes to ensure Japan truly overcomes deflation.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

Intensifying Middle East situation! Nasdaq fell by 1.5%, while the China concept stocks index rose over 5% against the market trend.

Due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, most European and American stock markets fell on Tuesday (October 1), with the three major US indices collectively closing lower. The so-called 'fear index,' the CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX), closed at 19.26, the highest level since September 12.

Against the market trend, China concept stocks surged, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 5.48%, reaching its highest level since August last year. Among the popular China concept stocks, KE Holdings rose by 17.43%, Bilibili rose by 14.33%, Li Auto Inc rose by 11.50%, and PDD Holdings rose by 8.03%.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East led to collective gains in US oil & gas stocks and defense stocks.

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, US oil & gas stocks strengthened, with Apache Oil rising by nearly 5%, ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil rising by nearly 4%; defense stocks rose, with Lockheed Martin rising by over 3%.

China is increasing subsidies for electric vehicles, tesla is expected to see its first quarter sales growth this year.

Tonight, Tesla will officially announce its Q3 sales data. According to a survey of analysts by Bloomberg, analysts expect Tesla's global deliveries in the third quarter of this year to be around 0.4639 million vehicles, an increase of about 7% compared to the same period last year.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy expects Tesla to deliver 0.47 million vehicles globally in the third quarter, with the 'strong performance in the Chinese market' serving as a timely help for Tesla, helping to offset the continued weakness in the US and European markets. Tesla saw a slight drop of over 1% today.

Apple dropped nearly 3%, with Barclays cutting key component orders by 3 million, preparing to launch a new iPhone SE model next year.

Shortly after the release of the iPhone 16, Apple is preparing to announce the launch of a new entry-level phone and an upgraded version of the iPad early next year. According to sources, Apple is gearing up to produce an updated iPhone SE, which will become their new budget-friendly model. An anonymous source mentioned that Apple also plans to release a new iPad Air and keyboard around the same time, with these plans still undisclosed. This release will mark the first update for the iPhone SE since it added 5G functionality in 2022.

Barclays reported that, by the end of December quarter, orders for crucial iPhone semiconductor components from a major **** supplier may be reduced by 3 million units, coupled with the shortened global delivery time for iPhone 16, indicating weak demand. The delayed launch by Chinese Apple Intelligence next year also affects early enthusiasm for the new devices. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Today's decline is nearly 3%.

The AI datacenter is too large, microsoft's financing lease expenditure will exceed one trillion US dollars, and the profit margin is expected to be under pressure.

Microsoft, leading the AI boom, is set to release its quarterly financial report this month. Microsoft revealed that the company's unused financing leases surged to $108.4 billion, an increase of $20.6 billion compared to the previous quarter, and nearly $100 billion more than two years ago, primarily due to datacenter leasing. Analysts believe that while the surge in datacenter financing leases may enhance Microsoft's AI capabilities, it is likely to impact profit margins. $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Today's decline exceeds 2%.

Nike has withdrawn its full-year performance guidance, with the new CEO about to take over, causing the stock price to drop nearly 6% in night trading.

After Nike withdrew its full-year performance guidance following lower-than-expected revenue, it highlights the challenges that incoming CEO Elliott Hill will face later this month. Company CFO Matt Friend stated during an analyst conference call that this decision was due to an upcoming leadership transition. The company expects a decrease in revenue of 8% to 10% for the second quarter, similar to the decline in the first quarter. 'Although we have made some initial progress, we are not yet out of the woods,' Friend said.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Hong Kong stocks opened today, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect and the China Connect temporarily suspended.

A-share market will be closed from October 1st to October 7th, 2024 (including weekends); Hong Kong stock market experienced a holiday on October 1st and officially opened today; Hong Kong Stock Connect will be suspended from October 1st to October 7th.

The new forces in the automotive industry have great potential: 'Ownerless Motors' sets a new delivery record, with Nio delivering over 20,000 vehicles for five consecutive months.

On October 1st, emerging car companies successively announced last month's delivery situation. Li Auto Inc., Leapmotor, and Xpeng all set new delivery records, while Nio Inc. has achieved over 20,000 deliveries for five consecutive months, with only the NIO ES8 yet to emerge from a decline.

In September, Li Auto Inc. delivered 53,709 new vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 48.94%, setting a new delivery record. In the third quarter, 152,831 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 45.4%, with a total of 341,812 units delivered this year.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: US September 'small non-farm' ADP employment data; Federal Reserve Governor Baumann speech; Hong Kong stock market new stock Carlode listed

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the eurozone unemployment rate for August and the US September ADP employment data will be released.

In terms of financial events, in 2024, FOMC voters Bostic and Barkin, and in 2025, FOMC voter Collins will participate in a group activity; in 2024, FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Lael Brainard will give a speech; in 2025, FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musleh will deliver the opening speech at an event; Federal Reserve Governor Baumann will give a speech.

In terms of financial reports, $Conagra Brands (CAG.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Perimeter Solutions (PRM.US)$ Will release financial report ahead of the U.S. pre-market trading, $Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks, a kitchenware brand from Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China$CAROTE LTD (02549.HK)$ Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 2nd.

Futubull Morning News:

In life, it is difficult to reach the peak, and once you reach the peak, it is difficult to hold onto that position for a long time.

"- Charlie Munger"

Editor/Lambor

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