Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) shares are trading higher on Tuesday.
On Monday, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) completed an antitrust review of the merger of both companies, satisfying a critical closing condition for the transaction.
To facilitate the merger's completion, Hess and Chevron have agreed that Hess CEO John Hess will not be on the Chevron board.
Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) and its partner CNOOC Ltd had earlier asserted their right of first refusal to any sale of Hess' stake in a Guyana oil-producing joint venture. The arbitration panel is expected to hear these claims in May 2025.
Piper Sandler analyst Ryan M. Todd raised the valuation of Guyana (net to HES) from $40.6 billion to $45.6 billion, translating to $132 to $149 per share, due to notable increases in discovered resources and productivity in Guyana.
The analyst estimates Hess' stand-alone value at around $170 per share with Brent priced at $75 per barrel, suggesting that Hess is a compelling value opportunity for the first time in years.
Notably, given strong reservoir productivity and successful debottlenecking (12%-20% improvement), Todd expects each FPSO's peak productive capacity to increase from approximately 2.0 Mboe/d to around 2.5 Mboe/d.
The analyst adds that while second-quarter production was 192 kbd (net to HES) in Guyana, they expect net production to peak at around 775 kbd, reflecting a 17% annual CAGR for nearly a decade, with peak CFO and FCF projected at $10.3 billion and $8.7 billion, respectively, vs. a $2.2 billion breakeven in 2023.
On the other hand, Wolfe Research analyst Doug Leggate upgraded Hess from Peer Perform to Outperform with a price target of $150.
The bullish outlook reflects the analyst's view that current market conditions and the potential merger outcomes give Hess shares an attractive risk/reward profile, indicating that the valuation remains compelling regardless of whether the deal with Chevron proceeds.
Leggate cited three scenarios for Hess that support a positive outlook. The first scenario envisions the successful merger with Chevron, closing the current 11% arbitrage gap between the valuations of Hess and Chevron.
If the merger fails, the analyst expects Hess to trade based on its fundamentals, with a fair value starting point projected at about $150 per share.
The third scenario examines a failed merger, indicating that Hess has shown a willingness to be acquired, with Chevron likely remaining the sole interested party, says the analyst.
Price Action: HES shares are up 1.9% at $138.38, while CVX shares rose 1.28% at $149.17 at the last check Tuesday.
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