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US stock market preview | The three major futures indexes fell before the market, Chinese concept electric vehicle stocks continued to rise; Is a significant rate cut hopeless? Powell expects two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year.

Futu News · 20:31

热点要闻

周二美股盘前，三大期指小幅下跌

明星科技股盘前涨跌不一，谷歌涨近2%，英伟达、特斯拉小幅上扬，苹果跌超1%。

热门中概股盘前普涨，蔚来涨近4%，理想汽车涨超3%，小鹏涨近3%。

新能源汽车股盘前集体上涨，电车9月成绩单公布

新能源车股盘前普涨，部分车企9月交付量公布如下： $比亚迪股份 (01211.HK)$ 9月销量419426辆，同比增长45.91%； $理想汽车 (LI.US)$ 9月交付53709辆，同比增长48.9%，创单月交付量历史新高； $蔚来 (NIO.US)$ 9月交付21181辆，同比增长35.4%； $小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$ 9月交付21352辆，同比增长39%，环比增长52%，创单月交付历史新高。 $小米集团(ADR) (XIACY.US)$ SU7交付量超10000台，目前已连续4个月达成破万交付目标，10月生产目标冲刺2万台。

特斯拉在马斯克自动驾驶营销引发的投资者诉讼中胜诉

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$ 公司成功驳回了一项股东诉讼，该诉讼指控特斯拉关于自动驾驶能力的误导性陈述支撑了其股价，周一，美国地区法官在其裁决中驳回了股东们的指控，这些股东声称马斯克过度宣扬了特斯拉的自动驾驶技术，并做出包括驾驶员可以“在车内睡觉”等承诺。法官发现，部分被指控的夸大其词涉及未来计划，而其他部分则未必虚假。

德国将加码对微软反垄断监管

德国联邦卡特尔局9月30日表示，已将 $微软 (MSFT.US)$ 列为“对市场竞争具极其重要意义的公司”。该机构称，新的分类意味着微软将受到更严监督，并可能因反竞争行为而面临禁令。德国联邦卡特尔局称，其新权力适用于微软整体，而不仅限于其个别服务或产品。微软发言人表示：“我们认识到我们有责任支持健康的竞争环境，我们将努力在与德国联邦卡特尔局的合作中采取积极主动、协作和负责任的态度。”

苹果盘前跌超1%，巴克莱：维持对苹果 “减持 ”评级

$苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 盘前跌超1%，巴克莱称，有数据显示，一家主要的台湾供应商在12月当季削减了iPhone 16的订单。我们此前曾讨论过全球iPhone 16的交货时间缩短，这两种情况都表明iPhone 16的需求疲软。目前维持对苹果的 “减持 ”评级，目标价为186美元。

房多多盘前续涨近20%，隔夜股价飙涨超146%

$房多多 (DUO.US)$ 隔夜股价飙升146%一度触及52周最高，截至发稿，该股盘前涨超18%，报3.66美元。消息面上，9月29日晚，中国央行连发四项金融支持房地产政策，涉及调整存量房贷利率、下调二套房最低首付比例、延长“金融16条”等政策期限、优化保障性住房再贷款政策。国有四大行随即宣布将调整存量房贷利率，10月31日前完成批量调整。

波音公司据悉考虑通过发行新股筹集至少100亿美元

据外媒报道，知情人士称， $波音 (BA.US)$ 公司正在考虑通过出售新股筹集至少100亿美元的资金，因为这家飞机制造商正寻求补充因持续罢工而进一步耗尽的现金储备。

全球宏观

大幅降息无望？鲍威尔预计今年还有两次25基点降息

鲍威尔在周一的讲话中指出，9月的利率下调已经开始了这一过程，并且未来将根据经济数据的变化进行进一步的“再校准”。鲍威尔表示：“通过对政策立场的适当再校准，劳动力市场的强劲表现可以在经济适度增长和通胀可持续下降的环境下得以保持。”他还补充道：“总体来看，经济状况良好，我们打算利用我们的工具来维持这一局面。”鲍威尔预计，如果经济继续保持当前的轨迹，今年还会有两次25个基点的降息。

美联储博斯蒂克：若就业市场意外疲软，愿考虑再降息50个基点

美联储博斯蒂克表示，如果劳动力市场出现意外疲软，愿意考虑再降息50个基点；基线预期是“有序”放松政策，预计通胀将继续放缓，劳动力市场将保持稳定；由于核心PCE指数仍维持在2.7%，不想对通胀过于自信；将密切关注即将发布的就业数据，如果就业增长大幅低于10万个岗位，就需要更深入地探讨当前的情况；近期的PCE数据表明通胀回落仍处于轨道之上。

贝莱德上调中国股票评级至超配

贝莱德投资研究所表示，将中国股票的评级从中性上调至超配。该机构认为，鉴于中国股票相对于发达市场股票的折价接近创记录水平，且存在可能刺激投资者重新入市的催化剂，短期内仍有适度增持中国股票的空间。

国庆假期首日，中国旅游消费市场迎来新高潮

旅游消费热情在这个国庆假期集中爆发，假期首日，中国旅游消费市场便迎来了新高潮。携程数据显示，国庆假期第一天，多地景区门票售罄，国内景区门票订单量同比去年增长37%，民宿预订量同比增长55%。与此同时，出境游也迎来了一波高峰，该平台“十一”假期首日出境游订单量同比去年增长近四成。

“股神”巴菲特再次加码日股？伯克希尔拟发日元债券

“股神”沃伦•巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司正计划今年第二次发行日元债券，引发市场猜测该公司寻求增加在日本的投资，日本商社类股票应声走高。据悉，伯克希尔哈撒韦聘请美国银行和瑞穗证券发行以日元计价的优先无担保债券。该公司自2019年以来一直是日元票据的定期发行人，上一次发行此类债券是在4月份。

石破茂正式当选日本首相

当地时间10月1日，日本自民党新总裁石破茂在临时国会众议院和参议院进行的首相指名选举中，均获得超过半数选票，正式当选第102任日本首相。当天上午，日本岸田内阁已在临时阁僚会议上集体辞职。石破茂现年67岁。他早年在银行工作，从政38年来，涉足农业、安全、地方振兴等多个领域，曾任自民党干事长、政策调查会长，获称“政策通”。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:45 九月美国Markit制造业PMI

22:00 九月美国ISM制造业PMI

22:00 八月美国JOLTS职位空缺

23:00 美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克讲话

编辑/new

Hot news

Pre-market trading in the US stocks on Tuesday, with the three major futures indices showing a slight decline.

Pre-market trading of growth tech stocks sees mixed movements, with Google up nearly 2%, Nvidia and Tesla slightly higher, and Apple dropping over 1%.

Pre-market trading of China concept stocks generally rises, with Nio up nearly 4%, Li Auto Inc increasing over 3%, and Xpeng rising almost 3%.

Pre-market trading of new energy autos stocks collectively rise, with the September performance report of electric cars being released.

Pre-market trading of new energy vehicles stocks sees an overall increase, with some automakers releasing their September delivery volumes as follows: $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ September sales volume of 419,426 vehicles, a year-on-year growth of 45.91%. $Li Auto (LI.US)$ In September, 53,709 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, setting a new record for monthly deliveries. $NIO Inc (NIO.US)$ In September, 21,181 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%. $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ In September, 21,352 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 39%, a month-on-month increase of 52%, setting a new record for monthly deliveries. $Xiaomi Corp. Unsponsored ADR Class B (XIACY.US)$ SU7 delivery volume exceeds 10,000 units, achieving the goal of over 10,000 deliveries for the fourth consecutive month. The production target for October is to increase to 0.02 million units.

Tesla wins in investor lawsuit sparked by Musk's autopilot marketing.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 公司成功驳回了一项股东诉讼，该诉讼指控特斯拉关于自动驾驶能力的误导性陈述支撑了其股价，周一，美国地区法官在其裁决中驳回了股东们的指控，这些股东声称马斯克过度宣扬了特斯拉的自动驾驶技术，并做出包括驾驶员可以“在车内睡觉”等承诺。法官发现，部分被指控的夸大其词涉及未来计划，而其他部分则未必虚假。

Germany will step up antitrust supervision on microsoft.

德国联邦卡特尔局9月30日表示，已将 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 列为“对市场竞争具极其重要意义的公司”。该机构称，新的分类意味着微软将受到更严监督，并可能因反竞争行为而面临禁令。德国联邦卡特尔局称，其新权力适用于微软整体，而不仅限于其个别服务或产品。微软发言人表示：“我们认识到我们有责任支持健康的竞争环境，我们将努力在与德国联邦卡特尔局的合作中采取积极主动、协作和负责任的态度。”

苹果盘前跌超1%，巴克莱：维持对苹果 “减持 ”评级

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Pre-market fell more than 1%, Barclays stated that there is data showing that a major **** supplier cut orders for the iPhone 16 in the December quarter. We have previously discussed the shortened delivery time of the global iPhone 16, both of which indicate soft demand for the iPhone 16. Currently maintaining a "shareholding" rating for Apple, with a target price of $186.

Fangdd Network continued to rise nearly 20% pre-market, with the stock price surging over 146% overnight.

$Fangdd Network (DUO.US)$ The overnight stock price soared 146%, touching a 52-week high at one point. As of the time of publication, the stock rose more than 18% pre-market, trading at $3.66. On the news front, on the night of September 29, the People's Bank of China issued four financial support policies for real estate, involving adjustments to existing home loan rates, reduction of minimum down payment ratio for second homes, extension of the deadline for policies such as the "16 financial measures", and optimization of re-lending policies for affordable housing. The four major state-owned banks subsequently announced adjustments to existing home loan rates, completing bulk adjustments by October 31.

Boeing is reportedly considering raising at least $10 billion through issuing new shares.

According to foreign media reports, insiders said, $Boeing (BA.US)$ The company is considering raising at least $10 billion through the sale of new shares, as the aircraft manufacturer is seeking to replenish its cash reserves further depleted by ongoing strikes.

Global macro

Unlikely to see a significant interest rate cut? Powell expects two more 25 basis point cuts this year.

Powell noted in his speech on Monday that the rate cut in September had already begun this process, and future adjustments will be made based on changes in economic data. Powell said, 'By appropriately recalibrating our policy stance, the strong performance of the labor market can be maintained in an environment of moderate economic growth and sustainable inflation decline.' He also added, 'Overall, the economic conditions are good, and we intend to use our tools to maintain this situation.' Powell expects two more 25 basis point rate cuts this year if the economy continues on its current path.

Boston Fed's Rosengren: Willing to consider further 50 basis point rate cut if labor market unexpectedly weakens.

Boston Fed's Rosengren stated that if the labor market unexpectedly weakens, they are willing to consider a further 50 basis point rate cut. The baseline expectation is for a 'orderly' easing of policies, with inflation expected to continue to slow down and the labor market to remain steady. As the core PCE index is still at 2.7%, they are cautious about being too confident in inflation. They will closely monitor the upcoming employment data, and if job growth falls significantly below 0.1 million positions, a deeper exploration of the current situation will be needed. Recent PCE data indicates that inflation remains above the trajectory for a slowdown.

Blackrock upgrades its rating on China stocks to overweight.

Blackrock Investment Institute stated that it has raised the rating of China stocks from neutral to overweight. The institution believes that as the discount of China stocks relative to stocks in developed markets approaches record levels, and there are potential catalysts that could stimulate investors to re-enter the market, there is still moderate room for shareholding China stocks in the short term.

On the first day of the National Day holiday, the Chinese tourism consumption market ushered in a new peak.

The enthusiasm for tourism consumption erupted during this National Day holiday, and on the first day of the holiday, the Chinese tourism consumption market welcomed a new peak. Data from Ctrip shows that on the first day of the National Day holiday, tickets for many scenic spots were sold out, with a 37% year-on-year increase in domestic scenic spot ticket orders and a 55% year-on-year increase in homestay bookings. At the same time, outbound tourism also experienced a peak, with a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in outbound travel orders on the platform on the first day of the "Eleven" holiday.

"Stock God" Warren Buffett making moves in Japanese stocks again? Berkshire Hathaway plans to issue yen bonds.

"Stock God" Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is planning to issue yen-denominated bonds for the second time this year, sparking speculation in the market that the company is seeking to increase its investments in Japan, leading to a rise in Japanese trading company stocks. It is reported that Berkshire Hathaway has hired Bank of America and SMBC Nikko Securities to issue yen-denominated senior unsecured bonds. The company has been a regular issuer of yen bonds since 2019, with the last issuance of such bonds in April.

Fumio Kishida officially elected as Prime Minister of Japan.

On October 1st local time, Fumio Kishida, the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, received more than half the votes in the prime ministerial nomination elections held in the temporary session of the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, officially becoming the 102nd Prime Minister of Japan. On that morning, the Japanese Kishida Cabinet collectively resigned at a special cabinet meeting. Fumio Kishida is 67 years old. He originally worked in a bank, and over his 38 years in politics, he has been involved in multiple fields such as agriculture, security, and regional revitalization, and has served as Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party and Chairman of the Policy Research Council, earning the nickname "Policy Expert".

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

21:45 September USA Markit Manufacturing PMI

22:00 September USA ISM Manufacturing PMI

22:00 August USA JOLTS Job Openings

23:00 USA Atlanta Fed President Bostic Speech

Editor/new

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