"Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily" news on October 1st (Editor: Song Ziqiao) In 2008, the world's first Tesla car was delivered, and over the next decade, Tesla gradually became the benchmark for electric vehicle brands.

However, an important piece of Tesla's automotive revolution, the Robotaxi business, has been just thunder without rain for many years. After several delays, Musk provided a clearer timetable at the July earnings conference this year, and Tesla will hold the Robotaxi unveiling event on October 10. On September 26, Tesla officially released a teaser poster for the event.

Someone posted that this will be Tesla's "most important moment" since the launch of Model 3, to which Musk actively responded: yes.

It is worth noting that Tesla will launch a brand new vehicle designed for autonomous driving, instead of deploying existing or modified Tesla cars for the taxi business. Musk has temporarily named the Robotaxi model as "Cybercab". The public is trying to glean more details from Musk's "spoilers", and the currently available information is -

Cybercab may not be equipped with a steering wheel and pedals, completely relying on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) software; the manufacturing cost per vehicle will be very low, and the cost per ride may be similar to a bus ticket; it will be produced in Texas's Gigafactory and will adopt a new "containerless" manufacturing strategy (individually processing different parts of the car, only assembling the components in the final stage, aimed at reducing costs and factory footprint), with plans to achieve mass production in 2024; the design style has a "futuristic" feel, possibly similar to the Cybertruck; Musk also hinted at the possibility of showcasing some additional content at the unveiling event.

Revealed by tech media, automotive bloggers, and others, this new car has sparked more discussions, such as —

Cybercab is based on the "Model 2" (a consumer model pursuing extreme value for money, still in development, resembling a more compact Model Y without an official name but referred to as Model 2 by outsiders). Estimated to have 2 seats, lower manufacturing costs and energy consumption; Tesla will unveil Cybercab at the Warner Bros. Studios in Los Angeles (where "Interstellar" was filmed), according to set staff leaks, a uniquely shaped, heavily disguised small vehicle appeared in the Tesla fleet (refer to the image below), with two doors and two seats, all covered in yellow tape, the vehicle's rear protrudes in a box-like shape to conceal the body curves, the roof likely has a raised lidar, but with increased photo exposure, the steering wheel is still present.

Whether it's Cybercab spy shots, teaser posters, or the recent product roadmap from Tesla's AI team — anticipating the launch of FSD service in China and Europe in the first quarter of 2025, various news all seem to be telling everyone, "We've got something big brewing."

Years of planning suddenly accelerating

In 2016, Tesla released the second decade plan, the "Tesla Master Plan, Part Deux", in this declaration, Musk first mentioned the vision of self-driving taxis and "shared travel": in the future, self-driving technology will allow Tesla owners to rent out their cars when not in use; in 2019, Musk first referred to these future cars as self-driving taxis and committed to having 1 million such cars on the road by 2020.

This year, Musk has pressed the accelerator for his self-driving taxi business.

It began with two internal meetings in February, where the Tesla R&D team presented early development results for the "Model 2" and Robotaxi. Regarding the "Model 2", Musk revealed during a quarterly earnings call on January 24 that this car is expected to be officially produced in the second half of 2025, with an estimated price of around 250,000 dollars.

With the schedule for the "Model 2" basically confirmed and R&D progress ahead of the Robotaxi model, Musk decided to change the original plan and prioritize the release of the Robotaxi model.

According to The Information, a former employee stated that on that weekend, Musk's top subordinates conveyed new instructions to their teams, temporarily shelving the "Model 2" project. This decision was very sudden, and many employees were puzzled, especially since the Robotaxi was still just a concept. A former mid-level executive at Tesla expressed: 'It's like he's driving a speedboat as if it's a fishing boat.'

According to multiple former Tesla employees, Tesla plans to use similar batteries, electric machines, and other innovative technologies in these two models to reduce design and production costs and shorten the engineering cycle.

Musk's preference for the self-driving business over the "Model 2" is not surprising. In the "Tesla Master Plan, Part Deux", he indicated that a low-cost car cheaper than the Model 3 "is unlikely to be necessary" and he has never confirmed the name "Model 2". The Verge reported that earlier this year, Musk was basically pressured by investors to focus on developing the "Model 2" and promised to launch lower-cost models in the coming years.

Former Tesla Investor Relations Director Martin Viecha's position on the Robotaxi also sheds light on the issue. He stated at the 2022 Goldman Sachs Technology Summit that the Model X and Model S are Tesla's first-generation platforms, the Model 3 and Model Y are the second generation, and the Robotaxi business will become the third-generation platform.

Profit model to be considered Can regulatory obstacles be overcome?

Musk has repeatedly stated that he hopes to provide people with the lowest cost per mile transportation through Robotaxi and FSD. At the 2019 Autonomous Driving Day event, he provided calculations: "The cost of someone driving a taxi today is $2-3 per mile, while the cost of a single mile for Robotaxi is only $0.18."

To achieve the goal of having vehicle fares lower than human-driven taxis or even public transportation, it requires business scaling and extreme cost reduction.

It is said that through improvements in appearance design and assembly technology, the unit price of Tesla's Robotaxi may drop below 0.15 million. In addition, according to Musk's vision, consumers purchasing Tesla Robotaxi can not only use it for personal use but also let the car make money on its own, serving as a taxi for hire. Owners who join the Robotaxi fleet can make $0.03 million in profit annually. This idea completely disrupts the past Robotaxi industry's "self-manage, self-purchase, self-operate" business model.

According to Huaxin Securities' calculations, the single-vehicle profit model for Robotaxi will be achieved around 2027. From the perspectives of revenue and cost, the main cost reduction drivers on the cost side are reflected in the decrease of hardware costs and the decrease in per vehicle remote safety personnel costs brought about by the improvement in autonomous driving capabilities. Looking at the revenue side, with the improvement of two indicators, the increase in Robotaxi's operating duration and the decrease in idle rate, it is expected to achieve a balance between single-vehicle profit and cost in 2027.

However, while the ideal is very promising, compliance remains a major challenge in the Tesla Robotaxi scaling process.

For example, "the lack of a steering wheel and pedals" is a possible major innovation point for Tesla Robotaxi. The United States Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) require vehicles to be equipped with basic manual control devices, such as a steering wheel, pedals, and side mirrors. Currently, Tesla has not obtained an exemption from FMVSS.

In its letter to shareholders, Tesla acknowledges that it needs approval from the U.S. federal government to deploy more aggressive Robotaxi designs, and its statement is quite vague, "Although the deployment time of RoboTaxi depends on technological progress and regulatory approval, given its enormous potential value, we are actively seizing this opportunity."

Editor/ping