公司上半年盈利稳定，第一、二季度公司归母净利润分别同比上涨3.38%、0.93%。公司核电发电量平稳增长，上半年公司28 台核电机组累计发电量1133.78 亿千瓦时，上网电量1060.10 亿千瓦时，分别较2023 年提升0.08%、0.09%，基本持平。2024 年上半年，公司岭澳核电站、台山核电站换料大修时间少于2023 年同期，发电量分别同比增长15.31%、36.12%，防城港核电站3、4 号机组分别于2023 年上半年、2024 年上半年投运，发电量同比增长9.09%；大亚湾核电站、岭东核电站换料大修总时间多于2023 年同期，发电量分别下滑31.9%、13.66%。公司压降期间费用，上半年公司财务费用、销售费用、管理费用分别同比下降15.25%、14.30%、0.2%。公司通过低利率银行贷款置换、资本市场发债，降低财务费用，上半年融资成本3.12%，较上年同期下降25 个BP。Key points of investment:
China General Nuclear Power released its 2024 semi-annual report. In the first half of the year, it achieved operating income of 39.377 billion yuan, an increase of 0.26% over the previous year; net profit to mother was 7.109 billion yuan, an increase of 2.16% over the previous year. Among them, the second quarter achieved operating income of 20.195 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.77%; net profit to mother was 3.505 billion yuan, an increase of 0.93% year-on-year.
The company achieved stable profits in the first half of the year
The company's profit was stable in the first half of the year. The company's net profit to mother increased by 3.38% and 0.93% year-on-year in the first and second quarters, respectively. The company's nuclear power generation capacity grew steadily. In the first half of the year, the cumulative power generation capacity of the company's 28 nuclear power units was 113.378 billion kilowatt-hours, and the feed-in power generation capacity was 106.01 billion kilowatt-hours, up 0.08% and 0.09% respectively from 2023, which was basically the same. In the first half of 2024, the company took less time to replace and overhaul the Ling'ao nuclear power plant and Taishan nuclear power plant, with power generation up 15.31% and 36.12% year on year, respectively. Units 3 and 4 of the Fangchenggang nuclear power plant were put into operation in the first half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 respectively, and power generation increased 9.09% year on year; the total replacement and overhaul time for the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station and the Lingdong Nuclear Power Plant were longer than in the same period of 2023, with power generation falling by 31.9% and 13.66% respectively. Expenses during the company's pressure drop period. In the first half of the year, the company's financial expenses, sales expenses, and management expenses decreased by 15.25%, 14.30%, and 0.2%, respectively. The company reduced financial expenses through low-interest bank loan replacements and capital market debt issuance. Financing costs in the first half of the year were 3.12%, down 25 BP from the same period last year.
The number of nuclear power plant approvals in China continues to grow
On July 31, 2024, the State Council's “Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Economic and Social Development” stated that the construction of clean energy bases such as northwest wind power photovoltaics, southwest hydropower, offshore wind power, and coastal nuclear power will be accelerated. Since 2019, China has accelerated the pace of approval of nuclear power units. On August 19, 2024, the National Assembly approved 5 nuclear power projects with a total of 11 nuclear power units. A total of 6 nuclear power units were approved, including the company's Zhaoyuan Units 1 and 2, Lu Feng's Units 1 and 2, and Cangnan Units 3 and 4 managed by the controlling shareholders. The number of nuclear power units approved in China in 2024 has already exceeded the number approved in 2022 and 2023. According to data released by the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, by the end of the first half of 2024, a total of 56 nuclear power units had been put into commercial operation in China, and the feed-in electricity capacity of commercial nuclear power units nationwide was 199.895 billion kilowatt-hours. In the first half of 2024, the total feed-in electricity capacity of nuclear power plants managed by the company accounted for 53.03% of the country.
The company's nuclear power units have been put into operation one after another. As of the end of June 2024, the company managed 28 nuclear power units in operation and 10 nuclear power units under construction. The installed capacity was 31.756 million kilowatts and 1,058,000 kilowatts, respectively, for a total of 43.814 million kilowatts, accounting for 43.48% of the total installed capacity of nuclear power in operation and under construction in the country. In May 2024, Fangchenggang Unit 4 was ready for commercial operation. By the end of the first half of 2024, 1 of the nuclear power units under construction by the company was in the commissioning stage, 4 were in the equipment installation stage, 1 was in the civil construction stage, and 4 were in the FCD preparation stage. Lufeng Unit 5 completed dome hoisting on April 29, 2024, and entered the equipment installation stage. On July 28, 2024, Ningde Unit 5 FCD began full construction and entered the civil construction phase.
The company's dividend ratio continues to rise
The company's nuclear power plant is under large-scale construction and needs to coordinate capital expenditure and shareholder returns. The company's cash dividend ratio and dividend amount have continued to increase for three consecutive years. In 2021-2023, the company's cash dividend amounts were 4.242 billion yuan, 4.393 billion yuan, and 4.769 billion yuan respectively, with dividend ratios of 43.58%, 44.09%, and 44.26%, respectively. The company's 2023 pre-tax dividend was 0.094 yuan. According to the closing of 4.20 yuan/share on September 27, the dynamic dividend rate was 2.24%. As the company's nuclear power units are put into operation one after another in the future, the company's profit scale will grow steadily, and the scale of dividends will continue to increase.
Profit forecasting and valuation
As one of the oligarchs of domestic listed nuclear power operators, the company manages the fleet management at the advanced level of WANO's performance indicators. The company has strong cost control capabilities for nuclear power projects and integrated operation of nuclear power engineering design, construction and management. The company has implemented a long-term and stable dividend policy, and the dividend ratio is steadily increasing. Overall, the share of nuclear power in China's energy structure is still low. As the construction of China's new power system accelerates, the number of approved nuclear power units continues to rise, and nuclear energy has sustainable development space and growth prospects. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the company's newly approved projects will start construction one after another, and there is good room for growth.
The company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2024-2026 is estimated to be 11.354 billion yuan, 12.208 billion yuan, and 12.944 billion yuan respectively, corresponding earnings per share of 0.22, 0.24, and 0.26 yuan/share. Based on the closing price of 4.20 yuan/share on September 27, the corresponding PE is 18.68X, 17.37X and 16.39X, respectively. Considering the company's valuation level and industry development prospects, the company's “increase in holdings” investment rating is maintained.
Risk warning: Policy progress falls short of expectations; project progress falls short of expectations; electricity demand falls short of expectations; risk of falling electricity prices; systemic risk.
