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东方证券(600958)2024年中报点评:部分优势业务有所波动 自营奠定业绩持稳基础

Orient Securities (600958) 2024 Interim Report Review: Some advantageous businesses fluctuated, self-operated to lay the foundation for stable performance

2024 Mid-Year Report Overview: Orient Securities achieved operating income of 8.571 billion yuan, -1.42% year over year; realized net profit to mother of 2.111 billion yuan, +11.04% year over year; basic earnings per share of 0.24 yuan, +14.29% year over year; weighted average return on net assets of 2.66%, +0.22 percentage points year over year. It is planned to pay 0.75 yuan (tax included) for the first half year of 2024.

Comment: 1.2024H The share of the company's investment income (including changes in fair value) and other revenue increased, and the share of net income from brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and interest declined. 2. The reduction in commissions from public funds had a big impact on the company. The downturn in emerging funds dragged down consignment revenue, and the net revenue from consolidated brokerage services was -28.75% compared to the same period last year. 3. The equity financing business is at a standstill. The scale of debt financing has increased significantly over the same period last year, and the net income from handling fees from the consolidated investment banking business was -25.48% year-on-year. 4. Both brokerage asset management and public fund business were under pressure. Net income from handling fees from consolidated asset management operations was -38.06% year-on-year. 5. The equity self-employment high dividend strategy performed well. The fixed income self-employment scale increased, the position structure was optimized, and consolidated investment income (including changes in fair value) was +33.57% year-on-year. 6. The scale and market share of the two loans grew against the market, continuing to reduce the size of stock pledges. Net income from consolidated interest was -30.25% year-on-year.

Investment advice: Affected by factors such as the market environment and public fund fee reform during the reporting period, the company's dominant business, brokerage asset management and public funds, were under phased pressure, and the net income of the brokerage business declined significantly; the near-doubling growth in the scale of debt financing hedged the stagnation of the equity financing business to a certain extent; the scale of financing and market share grew against the market, continuing to reduce the size of stock pledges to control risks; equity self-employment performed well on the main line of the market. The increase in investment income (including significant changes in fair value) in the second quarter provided a stable foundation for the company's overall operating performance. The company's 2024 and 2025 EPS is expected to be 0.32 yuan and 0.35 yuan, respectively, and the BVPS will be 8.96 yuan and 9.26 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 10.10 yuan on September 27, the corresponding P/B will be 1.13 times and 1.09 times, respectively, maintaining an “increase in holdings” investment rating.

Risk warning: 1. The weakening equity and fixed income market environment has led to a decline in the company's performance; 2. Risk of market fluctuations; 3. The policy effect of capital market reform falls short of expectations

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