On the evening of the 30th Beijing time, the US stock market opened slightly lower on Monday. China concept stocks rose across the board. As of the time of publication, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$down 0.53%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up 0.22%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ down 0.11%.

It is expected that the US stock market will see gains in September and the third quarter. JPMorgan is likely to adjust its options positions, which may increase market volatility. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech on Monday.

Today is the last trading day of September and the third quarter, during this time period, the three major stock indices are all likely to record gains.

The US stock market struggled at the beginning of September, historically the weakest month for the stock market, but as time passed, especially after the Fed significantly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the market began to rebound. As of last Friday, the three major US stock indices have risen for the third consecutive week.

As of this month,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$the S&P 500 index has risen by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index rose by 2.3% in September.

This drove the S&P 500 index to rise by over 5% in the third quarter. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose by more than 8% and 2% respectively this quarter.

$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$After the rise in the third quarter, the market cap exceeded the $50 trillion mark for the first time, expected to be the best start since 1997. Tech stocks performed averagely, contrasting sharply with the significant rise in equal-weighted indices, indicating broad market participation.

Despite economic risks, the market generally expects economic growth to remain stable. Due to the S&P 500 index hitting a historical high, and the lack of strong catalysts such as key economic data or earnings reports, the ultra-short term in the coming weeks appears relatively high. option pricesHowever, longer-term contracts reflect a series of events that could trigger market turmoil.

It is well known that October is a period of turmoil and unrest for the market. Historical records show extreme volatility in the US stock market in October, with significant declines multiple times in October.

Nevertheless, investors are confident in the stock market's performance in the fourth quarter of this year after the rebound so far. The latest MLIV Pulse survey shows that as the Fed continues to cut rates, most respondents predict that the performance of the US stock market for the remainder of this year will outperform the government and corporate bond markets.

Specifically, 60% of the respondents are bullish on the performance of the US stock market in the fourth quarter, 59% of investors prefer emerging markets over developed markets, and avoid traditionalIts price has soared to a historic high, closely related to market expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.Such as US Treasury bonds, the US dollar, and gold.

The survey results show that this risk preference is in line with the bullish sentiment on Wall Street after the Fed cut interest rates this month. At the same time, the significant rise in the Chinese stock market after the government increased economic stimulus measures has further boosted market confidence.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch pointed out that the U.S. stock market is usually strongest in the fourth quarter, with over three years of gains in the fourth quarter out of every four years.

Welch said: "In a typically challenging September, U.S. stocks performed better than we expected. Now, as we enter a stronger seasonal period, combined with the start of a loose cycle by the Fed and favorable technical conditions, we expect these factors to provide upward momentum for U.S. stocks by the end of the year."

He stated: "We believe now is not the time to go against the Fed. Instead, it's an opportunity to prepare for a potential fourth-quarter rally, especially in the event of any market pullbacks."

Investors face risks including slowing economic growth and tensions in the Middle East. In addition, third-quarter corporate earnings will begin to be announced in mid-October, posing a test for the market rebound.

The market is focusing on the impact of JPMorgan's upcoming adjustment of its options positions on Monday.

JPMorgan is set to sell 0.04 million call options on Monday and reset its options positions. Analysts believe this will increase the volatility of the S&P 500 index, and investors are closely watching JPMorgan's quarterly options position updates.

Options analysisCompany SpotGamma indicates that every quarter, JPMorgan's large hedge fund (JHEQX) will sell approximately 0.04 million out-of-the-money call options. Currently, the hedge fund holds 0.04 million call options at 5750 points which will expire on September 30 (Monday).

The hedge fund has a massive size of $16 billion and is also known as a 'whale' in the derivatives field due to its enormous influence. The fund holds a basket of S&P 500 index stocks and benchmark index options, resetting the hedge quarterly.

Investors are focusing on the JHEQX quarterly options position updates, as well as the portfolio manager's rebalancing at the end of the quarter. Analysts say that although many market participants anticipate this type of trading, it may exacerbate stock market volatility.

A large amount of US economic data will be released this week, including the employment report that may determine whether the Federal Reserve will make another substantial rate cut in November.

The futures market indicates a probability of around 55% for a 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve on November 7, despite the upcoming presidential election just two days later being a major uncertainty factor. Several Fed officials will speak this week, with the most important being Fed Chair Powell's speech on Monday. Job vacancies, private hiring data, as well as ISM manufacturing and service sector surveys, will also be released.

Whether the market's expectation for the Fed's second significant 50 basis point rate cut will continue to rise largely depends on Powell's policy stance in his speech andnon-farm payroll data.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks on the outlook for the US economy, as well as the policy outlook of the Fed, along with the recent non-farm payroll data, suggest whether the US economy is more likely to achieve a 'soft landing' or the probability of a significant increase in economic recession. The strength of the non-farm data is also crucial for whether the Fed can continue to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November, making these two major events crucial for the global financial markets' direction and overall volatility.

Key sectors & stocks

Tech stocks had mixed performance, with NVIDIA down 0.70%, Tesla up 0.97%, Apple up 1.76%, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms all up.

Most China concept stocks rose, with NIO, Futu Holdings Ltd up over 10%, Ke Holdings up over 9%, JD.com, Alibaba, Baidu up over 3%.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Fell by 0.54%; Huang Renxun stated on Monday: 'We are making efforts to provide services to Chinese customers and comply with the US government's export control requirements.'

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Rose by 1.44%. Shanghai's super factory exported over 1 million new energy vehicles, and the energy storage super factory is expected to start production in the first quarter of next year.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ Rises by 1.57%. A factory of Tata Electronics, a supplier of apple phone components in India, stopped production after a fire, which may impact the supply chain. There are also reports that Apple plans to launch new smart home devices in the spring that support Apple's ai ​​capabilities.

$Stellantis NV (STLA.US)$ 跌12.70%。汽车生产集团斯特兰蒂斯（ $Stellantis NV (STLA.US)$ On Monday, it announced a revision of its financial guidance, lowering the full-year adjusted profit margin from the previous forecast of 'double digits' to between 5.5% and 7.0%, expecting industrial free cash flow to be between -5 billion and -10 billion euros, lower than the previous forecast of 'positive'.

$JD.com (JD.US)$ Increased by 5.28%. The company announced on Monday that it will further expand its presence in the Hong Kong market, initially investing 1.5 billion yuan, with no cap in the long term. The investment will mainly be used for commodity price subsidies, logistics subsidies, and service optimization.

$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Rising by 13.80%. Nio China has secured a strategic investor with a new round of funding of 3.3 billion yuan, and Nio Inc will also invest 10 billion yuan to subscribe for new shares.

Editor/Rocky