According to the Zhongtong Finance APP, a survey by Reuters shows that analysts have lowered their forecasts for oil prices in 2024 for the fifth consecutive month. The reasons are weak demand and uncertainties surrounding OPEC's plans. Despite geopolitical risks, oil prices are still expected to face pressure. Analysts currently forecast an average price of $81.52 per barrel for Brent crude in 2024, the lowest expectation since February, below the August estimate of $82.86. The average price for U.S. crude is expected to be $77.64, lower than last month's estimate of $78.82.

Roger Read, Senior Energy Analyst at Wells Fargo & Co, stated: "One of the reasons for the recent softening of oil prices is the market's concerns about how and when OPEC will resume oil supply, along with weakening demand indicators."

According to surveys, global oil demand for 2024 is currently projected to increase by 0.9 to 1.2 million barrels per day, lower than the previous estimate of 1 to 1.3 million barrels per day.

Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have lowered their oil demand forecasts due to slowing demand.

Sehul Bhatt, Director of Market Intelligence and Analysis Research at CRISIL, said: "Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the economic growth slowdown in major economies such as Europe, combined with expectations of weak demand, is driving oil prices lower."

Most analysts believe that due to sufficient supply, the oil price risk premium related to wars has decreased. However, some analysts state that if tensions escalate, especially in the Middle East, the premium may rise again.

Amid the tense situation in the Middle East and the push from OPEC+ for production cuts, crude oil prices surged to over $90 per barrel in April. However, due to the trend of weak demand leading to oversupply, oil prices sharply reversed this month, falling below $70 per barrel.

The market expects OPEC+ to proceed with planned production increases in December, but first, it needs to cut production to address overproduction issues in some member countries.

Mike Haigh, the csi commodity equity index strategist at Industrial Bank of France, stated: "We expect OPEC+ to increase production in December."

"However, given the disappointing demand outlook and rising inventories, oil prices have started to decline, and a complete production cut cannot be completely reversed."

Currently, OPEC+ is cutting production by 5.86 million barrels per day, accounting for about 5.7% of global demand. Earlier this month, after oil prices fell to a 9-month low, OPEC+ postponed its production increase plans.