Source: Jin10 Data

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The company plans to release the third quarter delivery report on Wednesday, which should be good, but do not expect the stock price to have a significant positive reaction.

Wall Street's obsession has made Tesla's quarterly releases no longer mysterious and interesting. While better and more reliable information is obviously good, the evolving analyst coverage means investors should pay more attention to stock price trends before delivery figures are announced. This reflects the electric car manufacturer's operational performance better than the reaction to actual delivery volumes.

Take the first-quarter delivery numbers, for example. Tesla delivered approximately 387,000 vehicles, falling short of some of Wall Street's minimum estimates by about 10%. Following this, the stock price dropped by nearly 5% after the disappointment. Given the magnitude of the shortfall, this wasn't too bad. However, the price had already dropped almost 14% in the month leading up to the delivery report, as analysts began assessing quarterly performance.

The situation was much better in the second quarter. Tesla delivered around 444,000 vehicles, slightly exceeding expectations and significantly outperforming the first quarter. The stock price went up by approximately 10%, but in the month prior to the delivery report, it had surged by almost 18%.

Investors seem to have a better grasp of future trends, partly due to improved analyst performance on Wall Street. Analyst reports now include metrics like app downloads, weekly car registration data in China, monthly car sales data in the USA and Europe, and vehicle identification numbers from US assembly plants to get as close to actual results as possible and reduce stock volatility.

Apart from individual cases, there is evidence that analysts' forecasts are becoming more accurate. In 2018 and 2019, analysts' average deviation from Tesla's delivery volumes was about 5%. Over the past two years, this figure has dropped to around 4%.

More accurate estimates seem to result in Tesla's stock price reacting more noticeably before delivery announcements. If delivery volumes fall short of expectations, the stock price is more likely to drop in the month leading up to the release, rather than in response to the report being published.

Investors should not be surprised by this type of trading behavior. The stock market always looks ahead, and investors react to changing estimates and analyst information before any delivery report is released.

As of the Monday before trading, Tesla's stock price has risen by about 22% in the past month. Therefore, the delivery data for the third quarter should be good. Most Wall Street forecasts indicate an increase in sales compared to the same period last year, partly due to delivery growth in China.

Currently, Wall Street expects deliveries of around 460,000 electric vehicles, an increase of about 6% year-on-year. Growth is crucial. In the first half of 2024, Tesla delivered about 831,000 cars, a decrease of about 7% compared to the same period last year.

Slowing growth has impacted investor sentiment. By mid-April 2024, the stock price had dropped by about 45% since the beginning of the year, hitting a low point for 2024.

Tesla's stock price has recovered significantly. As of the past week, the stock price has risen by about 5% year-to-date. The return to growth in deliveries is an important factor, along with other factors such as optimism about artificial intelligence.

Following the announcement of delivery results, Tesla will hold a Robotaxi event on October 10th. Analysts and investors will focus on how Tesla strives to profit from its self-driving technology.

Editor / jayden