The price data released by the Silicon Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association this week shows that the price of polycrystalline silicon remained unchanged compared to last week, while silicon wafer prices also remained stable; the prices in the battery cell segment have softened. Compared to last week, the price of P-type battery cells remained unchanged, but some types of N-type battery cells saw a decline in prices.

"Overall, due to the continuous decline in overall module prices, the bargaining power of the battery segment is still relatively limited, and price trends still mainly depend on the acceptance at the module end."

"In general, due to the decrease in overall module prices, the bargaining power of the battery segment is still relatively limited, and price trends still mainly depend on the acceptance at the module end. Currently, the demand is indeed not as strong as before the long holiday when there was active stocking behavior, and the uncertain order situation continues to increase pressure on manufacturers. In this situation, we still maintain our forecast that it will be difficult for module prices to recover in the short term." InfoLink Consulting predicts that overall prices may fall to below 0.7 yuan in October.

HTSC research reports state that the photovoltaic industry is one of China's most influential industries in the global supply chain, with a capacity share exceeding 80% in 2023, and photovoltaic listed companies achieving a net income of over 120 billion yuan in 2023.

Since peaking at the end of 2021, the photovoltaic index has fallen by about 65% as of now, despite a brief recovery in 2022 due to the warming up of the capital markets. Disordered capacity expansion is the main reason for this decline.

In the face of supply and demand imbalances and continuous price declines in various links of the photovoltaic industry, some companies are starting to experience operational difficulties.

Huatai Securities believes that there are differences in the speed of capacity clearance in different links, and the silicon materials, battery, and glass links may be the first to achieve it.

It is expected that some leading companies' current cash reserves can only sustain 2-4 quarters of production and operation. It is expected that there will be capacity exits in the first half of 2025, which is an effective signal of capacity clearance.

Companies leading in technology, channel, and brand are expected to survive the cycle.

Photovoltaic industry chain-related enterprises:

Xinte Energy (01799), GCL Tech (03800), Flat Glass (06865), Xinyi Glass (00868), Irico Newenergy (00438), TCL Electronics (01070), etc.