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李斌终于熬出头了?

Has Li Bin finally turned the corner?

wallstreetcn ·  Sep 30 13:24

Reproducing the tesla script.

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Author | Chai Xuchen Editor | Zhou Zhiyu Faced with the trend of new energy electrification and the loss of market share under price wars, joint venture car companies have been "Renovating" their famous cars in an attempt to mount a strong counterattack. On May 30, SAIC Volkswagen's Touareg L Pro was launched. The car, which is said to be "the smartest gasoline car", had been preheated for nearly two months prior to its launch. The launch invited representatives from DJI Car and Tencent Travel, as well as the person in charge of iFLYTEK, all of whom attended in person to demonstrate the strength of its smart driving and smart cabin. As a "meritorious model" of SAIC Volkswagen, Touareg has been synonymous with Volkswagen SUVs for the past 15 years and was once the best-selling joint venture SUV. With a monthly sales volume of nearly 20,000 units for a long time, it occupies a 20% share of SAIC Volkswagen. SAIC Volkswagen hopes that the new Touareg will become a disruptor in the current market, from gasoline car intelligence to a stable price system with value-added buyback policy. In the view of Yu Jingmin, Vice President of Sales and Marketing of SAIC Volkswagen, new energy vehicles still have range anxiety and gasoline cars have an advantage that needs no explanation, but the biggest difference between them and electric vehicles lies mainly in their appearance and intelligence. After fulfilling the core needs of contemporary consumers, this once "famous car" seems to be reborn. Thus, from DJI's advanced intelligent driving solution to iFLYTEK's smart cabin voice assistant, this 200,000 yuan-level SUV brings together the strengths of various parties, aiming to break through the industry's perception that gasoline cars are less intelligent than electric vehicles. The launch of the new Touareg marks the beginning of SAIC Volkswagen's counterattack. In a post-event interview, Yu Jingmin mentioned several times that due to external cooperation and the accumulation of joint venture partners, SAIC Volkswagen's technology center is actually ahead of many independent brands, but unfortunately the rhythm is too slow. The company will now accelerate its efforts to catch up and even surpass in electric, hybrid or gasoline cars. Yu Jingmin revealed to Wall Street News that the new Touareg is the first gasoline car product in the Pro series, which is focused on intelligence, and that the Passat and Touareg Pro versions will also be introduced within the year. While polishing its technology, it is also preparing for the intelligence of its A-class cars. A counteroffensive war ignited by a gasoline fueled chariot seems to be brewing rapidly. But to be fair, SAIC Volkswagen's intelligence still lags far behind new forces such as Huawei, Xiaopeng, and Ideal. At the same time, in the current context where BBA is crazy about price cuts and the BMW electric car at over 180,000 yuan is setting a new industry low price, the 236,800 yuan Touareg L Pro seems somewhat out of step and the counterattack is difficult to achieve. In response to the challenge, SAIC Volkswagen has given a three-year 20% discount buyback plan. Users no longer need to worry about the fluctuation of vehicle purchase costs and second-hand car prices. SAIC Volkswagen locks in the difference between the purchase and final selling prices of users' vehicles, in a move to crack the price war. This also buys precious time for SAIC Volkswagen to speed up product and intelligence catch-up. This is the backdrop of the efforts to win back the former "king" of the Chinese car market.

In today's weather is good. Today's weather is good.

Just before the National Day, nio inc officially announced that it had raised another 3.3 billion yuan, which was a boost from its "old shareholders".

On September 29, nio inc announced that it had signed a strategic investment agreement with three existing state-owned shareholders (Hefei Jianheng New Energy Automotive Investment Fund, Anhui Province High-tech Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., Go B2b Investment Management Co., Ltd.), who will jointly invest 3.3 billion yuan to subscribe for additional shares of nio inc's subsidiary "NIO Holdings"; at the same time, nio inc will also invest 10 billion yuan to subscribe for new shares.

After the transaction is completed, nio inc's stake in NIO Holdings will decrease from 92.1% to 88.3%, with the remaining 11.7% held jointly by this round of strategic investors and other shareholders. Based on this rough estimate, NIO Holdings' pre-investment valuation is 46.6 billion yuan, post-investment nearly 60 billion yuan.

Hefei's injection is precisely because it sees the possibility of nio inc undergoing a "transformation" this year following a series of changes.

In mid-March, Nio adjusted its BaaS service, lowering prices with battery rental to attract more consumers, and then stimulating sales through promotional policies. Two months later, Nio returned to the '20,000 per month' high ground and has been maintaining it since. Following the rebound in sales, economies of scale promptly came into play, with Nio's overall vehicle gross margin doubling year-on-year to 12.2% in the second quarter of this year.

On the other hand, Nio's nearly 50 billion yuan investment in technology and battery swap moat has turned its sub-brand, Lixiang, into a hit with its first SUV. After the L60 launch event, William Li couldn't contain his excitement with one word: "selling like hotcakes." This model aimed at mainstream market 'volumes' carries his expectation of monthly sales of 20,000 units.

This means that Nio, gradually moving out of the 'lagging behind' doubts, is seeing the dawn of profitability. William Li once mentioned that if the Nio brand can achieve monthly sales of 30,000 units and 20% gross margin, and Lixiang's monthly sales reach 20,000-30,000 units, then positive profitability can be achieved.

After many years of setbacks and numerous 'roller coaster rides,' William Li seems to have finally turned the corner. The capital markets also quickly voted with their feet, with Nio's Hong Kong stock soaring nearly 20% on the opening of September 30.

However, this financing round itself has also sparked some discussion, with many puzzled as to why Nio still needs to rely on 'external blood'; and why William Li continues to endure the pressure of losses, persisting with strong investments of 3 to 4 billion yuan per quarter.

He is trying to make the market believe that Nio's 'long-termism' will eventually pay off, and it will definitely be a compelling story.

According to the plan, next year, with Nio as the center, a third brand 'Firefly' (code name) will emerge, while Lixiang still has 2-3 new car models poised for launch. They will form a encirclement strategy, covering the 140,000-800,000 yuan market, expanding under BaaS services to the 100,000-700,000 yuan range, further penetrating the territory of joint venture gasoline vehicles.

William Li's self-developed technological system is connecting the Nio automotive corps; the 'every county covered' energy replenishment network is paving the way for broader penetration into the lower-tier markets. In the background, Nio is also preparing for the rush in the coming years. William Li revealed that the F3 factory, with an annual capacity of 600,000 units, will be completed and put into operation in the third quarter of next year, at which point the entire Nio will have at least three factories simultaneously outputting, with total capacity reaching the million-unit level.

If NIO's technology, battery swap moat continues to thicken, and the two sub-brands LeDong and "Firefly" can successfully take root in the market, the entire NIO Group may have the opportunity to obtain the pass to enter the million-level "club" and leverage its resources further.

And this is the script that Tesla has played before.

In February 2018, Tesla shocked the market with an annual report showing a huge loss of 2.2 billion US dollars. At that time, the Model 3 production capacity issue had not been resolved, Musk burned 1.4 billion US dollars to develop the electric truck Semi and Model Y. Subsequently, market doubts, short attacks, and continuous decline in stock price... but this became a turning point in Tesla's destiny.

After enduring a hellish moment, Tesla's market cap surpassed one trillion US dollars, and Musk became the world's richest. The "wooden sister" who bottom-fished several times won because she deeply understood the core value of new forces - disrupting the traditional auto industry with technological innovation. Success can only be achieved by continuously investing in research and development, as Li Bin also stated, "There is no quick victory in the auto industry".

However, the path to advancement is fraught with obstacles, and NIO needs strong financial support. Just like Tesla on its path to rebirth, with investors like the "wooden sister" accompanying its growth, NIO also hopes to deepen ties with its shareholders to evolve into a dominant player.

According to industry insiders familiar with NIO, with the macroeconomic easing now, whether it is government funding or industrial capital, enterprises with innovative technologies are relatively favored. NIO can take advantage of this situation to acquire more ammunition, with hope of turning losses around and achieving profit.

It is worth mentioning that four years ago, it was the joint efforts of the three state-owned enterprises mentioned above that pulled NIO, hanging by a thread, out of the ICU with 7 billion yuan. They also received generous returns from this investment.

Li Bin disclosed, "NIO only did one RMB financing, which was Hefei, Anhui, and Guotou investing in NIO, and soon gave them back five times the amount." NIO then reciprocated by continuously expanding its investment territory in Hefei.

Perhaps to further enhance market confidence, in addition to the announced self-investment of 10 billion yuan, Nio Inc also mentioned that before the end of next year, it has the right to further increase its capital by no more than 20 billion yuan at the price and conditions of this trade.

The winning prospects of Nio Inc are gradually becoming clear. In the game, Li Bin and the state-owned shareholders have more confidence in raising the stakes, and they also have greater expectations. They believe that as long as Nio Inc can persevere, there is real hope to become an important player in changing the Chinese auto industry.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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