Haitong Int'l released a report stating that in the fourth quarter, the outlook for Hong Kong stocks is patient positioning in technology, waiting for the third wave of year-end rallies. Currently, this rapid recovery has basically stabilized, with short-term upward momentum but already overbought; foreign funds have fully entered the replenishment mode, with Hong Kong stocks being more flexible than A shares, and Hang Seng technology being more flexible than the Hang Seng Index. On September 27, incremental funds once again rushed into the market, with Hong Kong stocks trading at 433.6 billion Hong Kong dollars and A shares trading at 1.4 trillion RMB. It is believed that most of the funds that can enter the market in the short term have already done so. The current position still requires patience to wait for opportunities to stabilize, probably around 20,000 to 22,000 points for the Hang Seng Index, and a range of 3,100 to 3,300 points for the Shanghai Composite Index to start trading. In October, there may still be disturbances from the U.S. election, local conflicts, and domestic economic data issues, but any pullback is an opportunity for positioning.

The bank expects that there will be another wave of upward opportunities at the end of the year to restore valuations, and next year will open up a comprehensive upward trend. The third wave of the market still needs to see improvements in fundamental data, while next year's market will be profit-driven. The second half of this year is expected to mark the bottom in terms of profits.

In terms of industries, the current rapid rise is mainly due to the valuation restoration of large financial institutions, as well as the pioneering role of the internet, which had already reached new highs in advance; after the market risk preference reverses, there will be plenty of opportunities for positioning in the technology sector, with the emergence of new high-quality productivity in growth styles, especially in hard technology, AI, high-end manufacturing, and innovative drugs, which will become the market mainstream. The Third Plenary Session once again emphasized the development of new high-quality productivity. After resolving the confidence issues in the capital markets and the bottoming out of the real estate market, the policy focus will return to developing new driving forces for the economy. This is the driving force for future bull markets.