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周评:美伊局势有惊无险 下周关注美财报等事项

Weekly review: the situation in the United States and Iraq is in danger. Next week, we will pay attention to the US financial report and other issues.

新浪财经 ·  Jan 11, 2020 12:30
Clue Clues | Rational investment 

This week, the three major indexes of U. S. stocks rose and all hit new intraday highs.Dow.DJI) increased by 0.66%, breaking through the 29000-point mark at one point in the middle of the week.S & P 500 index.INX) up 0.94%Nano finger.IXIC) rose 1.75%, closing higher for five consecutive weeks.

Global stock markets (ACWI) generally rose. Priced in US dollarsFTSE emerging Markets Index ETFVWO) rose 1.23% a week. In terms of non-American developed marketsMSCI Euro area ETFEZU)涨0.14%。MSCI UK ETFEWU)跌0.56%。MSCI Japan ETFEWJ)涨0.54%。

In terms of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock marketsPrev index000001) it closed at 3092.29 on Friday, up 0.28% this week.It has risen for six consecutive weeks.Gem Index399006It rose 3.71% a week, up more than 3% for two consecutive weeks. This week, northbound funds have a net inflow of about 20.8 billion yuan for seven consecutive days.

Hang Seng IndexIt was reported at 28638.2 on Friday, a weekly increase of 0.66%.Closed higher for six consecutive weeks

Foreign exchange marketDollar indexDXY) closed at 97.34 on Friday, up 0.45% a week, ending a two-week losing streak.EuroAgainst the dollar (EUR/USD) fell 0.37% for the week.

SterlingAgainst the dollar (GBP/USD) fell 0.2% this week. Britain's lower house of parliament approved Britain's withdrawal from the European Union (EU) agreement bill by a vote of 330 to 231 on the 9th, allowing Britain to take the first step towards Brexit as scheduled on the 31st of this month.

In addition, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, sent a signal of easing, saying that the UK economy had slowed below its potential growth rate. Continued economic weakness may require a timely response, and there is 250 basis points of room for policy adjustment in the future. Quantitative easing, forward guidance and interest rate adjustment are part of the toolbox. Carney said the global economy is caught in a cyclical risk of falling interest rates and shrinking monetary policy space.

Us 10-year Treasury bondThe yield closed at 1.83% on Friday, rising 3BP (0.03%) every week. The 2-year Treasury yield that implied market expectations for short-term interest rates closed at 1.56%.

This week, a number of Fed officials made speeches, and most of the core points wereThere is no need to adjust interest rates this year. A number of officials will also speak next week.

Safe haven assets have fluctuated sharply this week as tensions between the United States and Iraq escalated rapidly. On the 3rd of this month, Qassem Sulejmani, commander of the Al-Quds Brigade under Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, was killed by an air strike by US troops outside Baghdad International Airport in Iraq. According to Iranian media reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards fired dozens of missiles at two Iraqi military bases stationed by US troops in retaliation in the early hours of the 8th. Trump later said that the Iranian attack did not cause any casualties in the United States and that the United States would impose new economic sanctions on Iran.

The US Treasury announced on the 10th that it would impose sanctions on eight senior Iranian officials and mining companies in response to Iran's previous missile attack on an Iraqi military base where US troops are stationed, further reducing the source of Iranian funds.

COMEXFuture goldGC) the main contract closed at $1563.29 / oz on Friday, up 0.51% a week, rising for five consecutive weeks. The contract rose rapidly on the morning of the 8th to its highest level of $1613 / oz since March 2013, but closed down nearly $60 at around $1557 / oz on the same day.

On Friday, the international benchmark ICE Brent crude oil futures (OIL) the main contract closed at $65.13, down 5.27% this week, reaching as high as $71.70 this week; NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (CLThe main contract closed at $59.09, down 6.43% this week, having been close to $66 this week. The above two contractsEnd five consecutive weeks of gains

This week, US President Donald Trump sparked a heated debate by saying that "the United States no longer needs oil from the Middle East" in response to Iran's attack on a US military base in Iraq. Experts say the United States is now the world's largest oil producer and has achieved "oil independence." However, some US media have pointed out that, in fact, US refineries are still using oil produced in the Middle East.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said this week that global oil demand is expected to grow by about 1 million b / d, with an oil market oversupply of about 700000 b / d and 900000 b / d in the first and second quarters. Currently, oil spare capacity is about 3-3.5 million b / d, and Iraqi crude oil supplies are not expected to be disrupted.

Tih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that there is a surplus oil supply of 1 million barrels per day in the world and is communicating with the Indian government to increase India's strategic gasoline reserve capacity, and India's economic slowdown may have an impact on oil demand growth.

Oil service company Baker Hughes (BHGEAccording to data released this week, the number of active oil drilling in the United States fell by 11 to 659 this week, the third consecutive week of decline.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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