On the last trading day before the holiday, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continued to soar.

At around 10:05 on September 30th, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, more than 410 billion yuan higher than the same time the previous trading day, setting a new record for the fastest trillion yuan mark. The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3200 points, the Shenzhen Component Index surpassed 10000 points, and the ChiNext Price Index broke through 2000 points.

This week's top ten brokerage strategies will guide the direction of trading for this hopeful new week to come.

GTJA: Expected upward revision of short positions

Market Trend Analysis: Expected upward revision of short positions, heavyweights set up the stage for growth. This week, the Chinese stock market saw an epic rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.81% for the week and the Chinext Index rising by 22.71%. The strategy report on September 24, 'Focus of the Rebound on Undervalued Blue Chips,' revealed the driving force of this round and the trading focus of the first stage. Stock prices reflect investors' expectations for the future. Loose monetary policy and positive political meetings imply a shift in decision-makers' objective analysis of the economic situation and an urgent change in attitude towards economic policies and the capital market, which is crucial for the expected upward revision of the stock market. The key to understanding the current stock market logic lies not in the significant upward revision of economic expectations, but in the decrease in risk-free rates driving incremental fund inflows, the change in investors' outlook on risk prospects, and increased risk preference expectations; trading features are reflected in optimistic pricing pushing up stock prices. After a short-term rally, optimistic expectations for policies will still drive the stock market. Referring to the 2019 market height due to policy attitude changes, there is still room for an upward valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index. Heavyweights are filling the pricing gap, and after increased trading volume, heavyweights are setting up the stage for growth, with excess returns shifting to growth stocks.

Market dynamics: Risk-free interest rates decline, boosting risk appetite. Guotai Junan has always emphasized in its strategic framework analysis and roadshows that government bond rates are not the risk-free interest rates of the Chinese stock market. Otherwise, it would be difficult to explain why rates continue to decrease while the stock indices have been sluggish in the past. The risk-free interest rate of the stock market is what investors hold in stocksopportunity costWhen external US dollar interest rates are high, domestic real interest rates and mortgage rates remain high, and the speed of interest rate policy adjustment is slower than the overall decline in demand, investors hold stocks.opportunity costNot only did it not decline, but it also rose. Therefore, the United States has entered an interest rate reduction cycle (the dot plot shows a reduction of more than 200 basis points by 25E), and the September Politburo meeting called for 'implementing a strong interest rate cut,' which is crucial for driving the decrease in China's risk-free interest rates and the influx of incremental funds into the market. The PBoC's innovative tools such as swap facilities and repurchase/re-lending directly targeting stocks becoming eligible collateral and expanding credit have become important new tools. However, for the stock market, what is important is the Politburo meeting statement becoming more concise and clear in policy goals, reducing the 'both want and want' multi-target statements, focusing on promoting development; the increased policy stance is crucial in changing sentiment, particularly in boosting risk appetite.

Market rhythm compared to industry trends: first rise then rotate, first blue chip then growth, the decisive moment is at the end of the year. Even in a booming market, one needs to engage in 'cold thinking'. In the face of the great power game and domestic transformation requirements, economic policy direction, fiscal discipline, and financial regulation may differ greatly from historical experience, focusing more on 'long-term mechanisms'. Therefore, we assess that the stock market will rise first and then rotate, focusing on blue chips first, then growth, with the market making a final decision at the end of the year, depending on whether actual policy implementation can drive expectations upward. On September 24th, we recommended undervalued blue chips as the focus of the first phase of trading. Subsequently, we suggest placing the main focus on sectors benefiting from the drop in risk-free rates and the boost in risk appetite: 1) Continued increase in trading volume +MergerMergers and acquisitions expectations, recommendations: non-financial; 2) Boost in risk appetite, focus on valuation elasticity: computer/media; 3) 2025E expectations stable, growth stocks with significant valuation adjustments, recommendations: electronics/autos/communications/power equipment (batteries)/medicine, as well as some growth consumer stocks.

Investment themes recommendations: 1. Financial technology. With renewed trading confidence, upgrades in B-end software and hardware, and increased willingness for C-end payments, optimistic about securities IT/financial technology innovation. 2. Consumer discretionary. Incremental policy efforts to boost domestic demand and stabilize employment, bullish on oversold medical services/aesthetic medicine. 3. Real estate services. Emphasis on stabilizing real estate through policies, optimistic about consumer home furnishings/intermediaries and property services. 4. State-owned assets.MergerStrategic emerging high-quality asset restructuring, optimistic about energy resources/public services, and other professional integrations.

Risk warning: Policy deviations, geopolitical conflicts, unexpected demand decline, etc.

Haitong Securities: Where is the medium-term market opportunity?

Core conclusions: 1. The policy combination focuses on the real economy while also considering the capital market. Combined with the historical bottom of the stock market, the conditions for the start of the medium-term market are in place. 2. Each round of the medium-term market has its main themes. Real estate and consumption support policies are highlights. Real estate, consumption, and pharmaceuticals with low valuations and positions deserve attention. 3. Combining industry analyst opinions: focus on high-quality real estate companies, baijiu and dairy products, Hong Kong-listed internet e-commerce and American retail, sports industry prosperity track, and high-quality pharmaceutical targets.

Strategy: With the warm breeze of policy, consumption and real estate recovery. This A-share volume surge is mainly due to the gradual clarification of the A-share bottom under the weakening macro environment in the previous period, as well as the positive policy shift this week. As of 9/24/20, from a variety of indicators such as valuations, net rate, risk premium, and stock-bond yield ratio, market risk preference and sentiment are already at a large bottom area. The State Council Information Office press conference on 9/24 announced a policy combination of 'financial support for high-quality economic development,' simultaneously making efforts in monetary, real estate, and stock markets, greatly boosting consumer confidence. Currently, the macroeconomic fundamentals are still affected by real estate and consumption, and with continued fiscal efforts, it will help boost expectations of fundamental improvement, promoting the gradual development of the stock market's medium-term trend. At the industry level, the valuations and fund allocations of the real estate, consumption, and pharmaceutical industries are at historical lows, and real estate and consumption are the focus of recent policy efforts. Therefore, under the background of fiscal efforts, the fundamentals of real estate, consumption, pharmaceuticals, and other sectors are expected to gradually improve and may become the main themes in the medium-term market.

What to focus on in a big market trend? Focus on high-quality real estate companies, baijiu and dairy products in food and beverages, Hong Kong-listed internet e-commerce and American retail in wholesale and retail, the sports industry in textiles and clothing, and high-quality pharmaceutical targets. Real estate: The new positioning of the real estate market to stabilize the decline is clear. Subsequent policies will adopt a 'strong supply side, strong demand side' model. In addition, the central bank's liquidity release will help improve the financing environment for real estate companies and the performance of high-quality companies. Food and Beverage: Improvements in short-term sentiment and incremental funds entering the market are expected to restore the sector's valuation, and cuts in reserve requirements, interest rates, and consumption stimulus are expected to unleash consumption potential, accelerating the demand improvement for baijiu and popular brands. Wholesale and Retail: Sub-sectors of consumption with short policy transmission chains and high marginal improvement in performance are expected to benefit more fully, among which Hong Kong stocks are better valued than A-shares from the perspective of valuation. Textiles and Clothing: Consumption basic data still needs to be observed, but policy benefits may provide support for the sector's valuation, and investment risk preference has increased. Focus on preferred sports industry tracks and industry leaders, as well as buybacks and high dividends may provide stable returns. Pharmaceuticals: Incremental policies continue to be released, driving the trend of the CSI All Share Health Care Index, recommend focusing on high-quality targets.

Risk warning: Slow progress in fiscal efforts, domestic macroeconomic fundamentals fail to repair as expected.

China Securities Co., Ltd.: Which hot spots are expected to continue rising?

Recent hot spot logic discrimination: Looking at the number of industry limit-up situations, IT services III, diversified finance III, communications equipment, auto parts, and architectural decoration are among the top five; looking at the number of concept limit-up situations, Huawei concept, artificial intelligence, e-commerce, ST sector, and new energy vehicles are among the top five. Recent hot spot logic indications: Optics and optoelectronics, chemical pharmaceuticals, chemical formulations are adjusting, and multiple finance, auto parts, and communications equipment sectors are becoming hot spots.

Looking at the mid-term changes in hot spots from the industry's new high: Industries that have long ranked in the top twenty in the industry based on the number of stocks hitting a 250-day high in the past 40 days include: road transportation, defense industry, expressways, chemical pharmaceuticals, banks, power equipment, special equipment, port and shipping, chemical agents, ports, environmental protection, consumer electronics, general equipment, computer applications, auto parts, chemical products, automotive vehicles, consumer electronics components and assembly, architectural decoration, energy and heavy equipment.

Compared to the past week, the industry that has risen from beyond the top twenty to the top twenty based on the number of stocks hitting a 250-day high in the past 40 days is architectural decoration.

The Governor of the People's Bank of China, Pan Gongsheng, stated that at the national level, first-time and second-time home buyers are no longer distinguished, and the unified minimum down payment ratio is set at 15% for all. Lowering the interest rates on existing home loans and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for home loans will guide commercial banks to lower the interest rates on existing home loans to near the rates for new home loans. The average expected decrease is around 0.5 percentage points.

Zhongtai Securities: How should we view the impact of the September Political Bureau meeting?

There was a significant increase in trading volume in the A-share market this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.81% to close at 3087.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 17.83%, and the ChiNext Price Index rose by 22.71%, with a 10% increase on Friday. The rebound in the market this week was mainly due to improved liquidity expectations and strengthened policy expectations.

In contrast to the monetary and some financial policies at the State Council's Financial Stability and Development Committee level this Tuesday, the Political Bureau meeting on September 26 focused on analyzing and studying the current economic situation and economic work, representing a change in the focus of high-level policies. Referring to historical experience, this shift in policy focus of this magnitude often brings about intermediate rebounds at the monthly and quarterly levels. In terms of future performance, real estate and consumption may become the themes of this cycle, with brokerages and central enterprises.MergerRestructuring will be an important "theme" of this round.

The earlier timing of this meeting implies a stronger sense of urgency in stabilizing the economy. Discussions of China's economic issues generally occur at the meetings in April, July, and at the year-end. Previous discussions on economic issues in non-traditional months were during relatively special periods, indicating the significance and uniqueness of this meeting.

The meeting mentioned facing difficulties, striving to achieve economic development goals, and there has been a change in attitude. The September Political Bureau meeting expressed a more conservative stance on economic operations and emphasized the need to intensify the introduction of incremental policies, making efforts to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks. Additionally, this meeting did not mention the overall tone of 'seeking progress while maintaining stability', but rather emphasized 'seizing key points and taking proactive actions', indicating a noticeable increase in policy determination.

It should be noted that this meeting places more emphasis on economic growth, but it is not a repeat of the '08 flood-like stimulus. The meeting mentioned: "We must objectively and calmly assess the current economic situation," and the fiscal policy statements emphasize more on "Three Guarantees" and other risk prevention measures, showing a substantive difference from the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2008, which aimed for speed and intensity. Compared to departmental policies, the main feature of high-level policies is that all functional departments and ministries at all levels will fully follow up and roll out a series of medium-term policies that have 'practical effects.' Therefore, with reference to historical stages, it often leads to a rebound at the monthly and intermediate levels. If the data subsequently shows a significant shortfall or stabilizing signs, the tone of high-level policies may change again.

Regarding whether this round of rebound can be sustained, it is crucial to observe the trends of several major events:

1) At the end of October, the extent of special government bond issuance by the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will be the most critical indicator that determines the height of this round of market. The subsequent situation of special government bond issuance will directly reflect the strength of this round of policies and will also directly decide the height and duration of this round of market. 2) On November 6, the results of the US general election will determine whether the export chain can continue to drive the economic cycle. If Trump is re-elected, increased tariffs and heightened geostrategic risks between the US and China may pressure the export chain; if Harris is elected, the stability of US-China relations may further boost the export chain. 3) The Political Bureau meeting in December and the Central Economic Work Conference have a decisive impact on the nature of the subsequent phase of this medium-term rebound.

Investment advice

After this political bureau meeting, there has been a noticeable shift in policy focus compared to before. In the second half of the year, subsequent policies may place more emphasis on economic growth, further enhancing the targeted and effective measures, and striving to achieve the annual economic and social development goals. In terms of investment:

1. Since the core of this political bureau meeting is to 'emphasize the economy,' the main themes closely related to economic growth will be cyclicality and consumption.

2. Due to the requirement in the real estate sector to 'strictly control the increment for commercial housing construction,' real estate stocks may be the most important theme compared to upstream sectors like black metals, with real estate stocks and downstream consumption likely to be the key focus.

3. The meeting emphasizes the key points.MergerRestructuring, will make state-owned enterprises merge and restructure the most important direction after the subsequent "index platform".

Swhy: Establishment of the 'policy bottom'.

Short-term currency, fiscal, and capital market policies have continuously catalyzed, reversing the comprehensive policy expectations, and optimistic economic expectations have also begun to ferment, leading to a rapid increase in market indices. When the market interprets the stage of fermentation of optimistic economic expectations, if the expectations run too fast and reality has not caught up, the market trend is inevitably dull. At that time, the upward momentum in the market may switch to a strong oscillation phase and rotation of sector themes. However, we believe that the post-holiday market may still have strong profit-making effects.

This time it is the 'policy bottom', because after the policy adjustment, the visibility of the 'performance bottom' in 25H2 has significantly increased. The source of the 'performance bottom' is weak improvement in demand, and the comprehensive relief of supply release pressure. The 'market bottom' may have already appeared, of course, the results of the U.S. presidential election may affect the midterm market trends: if Harris trading occurs globally, the A-share market will break through in November, led by the export chain. If Trump trading occurs globally, 25Q2 may be the starting point for a midterm uptrend.

The structure of the index ascending stage focuses on cyclical and technology sectors. In terms of cyclical sectors, attention is on real estate chain, real estate stocks, food and medical, nonferrous metals, and coal; for technology high elasticity, focus is on SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index and ChiNext Price Index.Sector rotationIn this phase, the focus is on the direction of anticipating a turning point in prosperity by 2025, with emphasis on battery technology and special estimates. The second quarter report may rebound, and the direction of improvement may continue in the third quarter, focusing on power grid equipment, wind power equipment, and innovative drugs. Subsequently, high dividend stocks may underperform relative returns, shifting the focus of high dividend stocks towards utilizing repurchases, increased holding, and refinancing for market cap management.

Huaxi: A-share interprets the reversal market, first allocating high-quality growth and consumption.

Market Outlook: A-share interprets the reversal market, the first allocation of high-quality growth and consumption. From the press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission on September 24 to the Political Bureau meeting on September 26, we can see the full force of policy, clearly boosting risk assets, and significantly improving market liquidity. This A-share volume recovery has regained 3000 points, forming a 'double bottom' support with the market in early February. Looking back at the previous medium-term market trend, it can be roughly divided into three stages. Currently, it is only in the 1.0 stage of market initiation, where valuation and risk preference are core influencing factors. After the setting tone of the Political Bureau meeting on September 26, follow-up measures will continue to be introduced by various ministries, entering a 'honeymoon period' of policies, and positive sentiment will continue to be supported in the implementation phase.

The following aspects are the key focus of the recent market:

1) From the press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission on September 24 to the Political Bureau meeting on September 26, the policy level has effectively responded to market concerns, signaling a 'comprehensive policy shift to stabilize the economy.' Regarding real estate, the Political Bureau meeting expressed the shift from 'preventing risks' to 'promoting the stabilization of the real estate market.' Currently, in some areas such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Hainan, there are still restrictions on purchases. It is expected that the pace of relaxation in these cities will accelerate in the future. Regarding the capital market, from the 'active capital market' at the Political Bureau meeting in July 2023 to 'boosting investor confidence' at the Political Bureau meeting in July this year, and to 'efforts to boost the capital market' at this meeting, the policy level has expressed a more explicit focus on the capital market; in terms of monetary policy, the central bank's reserve ratio cuts and interest rate cuts landed on September 27; in terms of fiscal policy, the Political Bureau meeting emphasized 'ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures' and 'issuing and using ultra-long-term special national bonds and local government special bonds well.' October is an important observation period for fiscal incremental policies, and support may be expanded in terms of usage. We believe that there is a high possibility of leaning towards supporting livelihoods, boosting consumption, alleviating local debt, and supplementing bank capital, among others.

Reviewing the previous round of medium-term market trends, it can be roughly divided into three stages. In November 2022, with the domestic epidemic control measures relaxed, the A-share market started a six-month upward trend. In Stage 1.0, valuation and risk preference were the core influencing factors. Investors had a strong expectation for post-pandemic economic recovery, with the initial rebound lasting for 26 trading days, a rebound rate of 11%. During this period, there were significant inflows of foreign capital, and private equity positions increased rapidly. In Stage 2.0, the previous policy effects began to show results, economic fundamentals improved, but after A-share valuations recovered rapidly, there was insufficient incremental capital to sustain the upturn, leading to rapid rotation within the market sectors. Stage 3.0 saw an increase in the weight of economic fundamentals. By April 2023, inflation, finance, and economic data began to weaken, diminishing the expectation of a strong economic rebound, gradually shifting the index to a weaker trend.

Currently, we are only in the initial stage 1.0 of the market trend, presenting a positive outlook for A-shares. After the Political Bureau meeting on September 26th set the tone, investor sentiment has significantly improved, leading to a substantial enhancement in stock market liquidity. A-shares reclaimed the 3000-point mark on increased volume, forming a 'double bottom' support with the market's early February levels. In this starting phase of the market trend (1.0), valuation and risk preference are the core influencing factors, while economic fundamentals represent a slow variable. We believe that following the September 26th Political Bureau meeting, incremental measures from various government departments will be introduced successively, continuing to support market risk appetite.

The stock market often leads the reflection of economic fundamentals, and the current comprehensive policy implementation is expected to drive an improvement in economic fundamentals. Referred to as the 'barometer of the economy,' stock market trends often anticipate macroeconomic changes, with historical A-share bottoms generally forming earlier in the 'market bottom' than the 'profit bottom.' The unusually early convening of the Political Bureau meeting in September highlights the current urgency and determination for stable growth policies. This move suggests that the clarity of A-share profit bottoms could become more apparent.

In terms of industry allocation: focus on sectors benefiting from policy initiatives such as consumer goods (food & beverage, automobiles, home appliances, pharmaceuticals), high-quality growth (smart driving, artificial intelligence), and restructuring and M&A themes.

Risk Warning: Unexpected delays in policy implementation, lower-than-expected corporate profits, a more severe-than-expected economic recession overseas, liquidity risks abroad, geopolitical risks, etc.

Guangfa Securities: Key changes this week: economic sentiment, crowdedness, liquidity, valuation.

Intermediate economic sentiment: Improvement in economic sentiment this week is mainly observed in the sectors of steel, non-ferrous metals, lithium batteries, semiconductors, and new energy vehicles, with clear indications of price hikes in: upstream resources like steel, coal, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals, as well as downstream consumer areas like food & beverage, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances. Specifically, according to Wind data statistics, in the upstream resources sector, steel, COMEX gold futures prices, COMEX silver futures prices, and copper prices all rose on a week-on-week basis, as did methanol and natural rubber spot prices. In the midstream manufacturing sector, the average price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials rose on a weekly basis, while in August, solar cell production increased year-on-year, excavator sales volume rose year-on-year, excavator working hours rose year-on-year, industrial robot production rose year-on-year, and metal cutting machine tool production rose year-on-year. In the downstream consumer sector, new energy vehicle sales increased year-on-year, while automobile and passenger vehicle sales decreased year-on-year. Production of power and energy storage batteries increased year-on-year, while exports of air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, televisions, and microwave ovens increased year-on-year, and retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased year-on-year. In terms of the financial and real estate industries, total turnover in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose significantly week-on-week, while demand in the real estate industry remains weak with a continued decline in weekly sales area for commercial housing in the 30 major cities last week. We recommend focusing on assets in the semiconductor (domestic substitution), machinery equipment, and red-chip assets in the banking and coal sectors supported by fiscal funds, as well as on base chemical industries and non-ferrous metals that benefit from the warmer economic cycle following the global easing trend. Strong consideration is advised for downstream consumer industries that have strong export advantages and relatively high overseas revenue shares, such as new energy vehicles, food & beverage, and light industry manufacturing.

Industry Crowdedness: Significant resurgence in positive sentiment for the big financial sector.

Valuation: (1) According to wind data, looking at the overall market, the valuation of A-shares and A-shares excluding financials expanded this week. Among them, the main board had the largest expansion. (2) From an industry perspective, the industries with the largest expansion in PE (TTM) percentile this week are non-financials, computers, and CSI SWS Health Care Index. Industries with a relatively smaller expansion in PE (TTM) percentile are social services, nonferrous metals, and real estate. (3) According to wind data, the equity risk premium decreased from 3.29% last week to 2.62% this week, and the stock market return decreased from 5.33% last week to 4.70% this week.

Liquidity: Market sentiment has been ignited, with institutional funds flowing in significantly. According to wind data, in the primary market this week, the IPO scale was 2.8 billion yuan, compared to 0.8 billion yuan the previous week. In the secondary market, this week saw a net inflow of 43 billion yuan from northbound funds, compared to a net inflow of 54 billion yuan last week with trading costs of 108 billion yuan. In terms of investor sentiment, the daily average turnover rate this week was 1.61%, up from 0.99% the previous week; institutional funds flowed in 54.3 billion yuan, compared to an outflow of 1.5 billion yuan the previous week. Restricted stock worth 34.6 billion yuan was released this week, compared to 23.7 billion yuan last week, with an estimated 64.9 billion yuan to be released next week.

Risk Warning: Global economic downturn exceeding expectations; uncertainties in overseas policies and rate hikes leading to deteriorating global liquidity risks; uncertainty in the timing and form of China's monetary and fiscal policies, with economic recovery weaker than expected.

Sealand Securities: How to view this round of "policy gift packages"?

1. This Politburo meeting is quite special. In the past, September Politburo meetings rarely touched on economic themes. This time, after the three ministries announced a series of heavy-weight policies on September 24, the Politburo meeting focused on market core concerns such as the economy, policies, and capital markets, which may indicate that there will be further vigorous policy implementation to follow.

2. From the perspective of policy tone, the intention to stabilize and promote growth before the meeting is more urgent, with a significant increase in the total policy intensity on one hand; on the other hand, the wording of real estate and capital market policies came out earlier and with stronger specificity.

3. Monetary policies landed first, demonstrating more active fiscal posture. This indicates a higher probability of subsequent fiscal measures being coordinated. It is crucial to pay attention to the possibility of the National People's Congress adjusting the budget in October, while not ruling out the possibility of the "policy gift packages" being implemented earlier.

4. Both real estate and capital markets have new expressions. Real estate for the first time set the tone to promote real estate "stabilization and recovery", while capital market policies focus on "insurance, brokerages, and other financial institutions", "listed companies", and "public funds", with more refined policies. It is expected that more impactful measures will be introduced next, with expectations for relaxed property purchase restrictions in first-tier cities and specific measures in the capital markets.

In terms of the stock market, the four measures have solidified the policy bottom. Focus on resilient varieties + high dividends, and engage in appropriate cyclical speculation. In terms of resilient varieties, pay attention to brokerages, computers, military industry, etc., while focusing on high dividends for banks, coal; in the cyclical sector, mainly focus on non-banking institutions (brokerages, insurance), cyclical products (non-ferrous, ferrous, petrochemicals, building materials, etc.) and consumer goods (autos, home appliances, baijiu) etc.

Risk warning: deviations in policy understanding, domestic economic performance falling short of expectations, deterioration of Sino-US trade relations, unexpected tightening of US monetary policy, unexpected domestic industrial policies, etc.

Industrial Securities: Recent structural characteristics of the market.

At the press conference of the State Council Information Office on September 24, the People's Bank of China, together with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, introduced a series of financial support policies related to promoting high-quality economic development; on September 26, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next steps in economic work. The domestic policies are actively exerting efforts, and the regulatory authorities have a clear intention to protect the capital market. Recently, investor confidence has been boosted, trading sentiment is enthusiastic, and A-shares have seen a significant increase.

In terms of structure, the characteristics of market oversold rebound are significant, with industries such as food and beverage, beauty and personal care, non-banking financials, real estate, building materials, etc., leading the gains.

Minsheng Securities: "Another round of relaxation": Rebound is the main theme.

1 Prior 'price for quantity' may have reached the limit.

Since the second half of 2021, "de-financialization" and local overcapacity have jointly led to price declines and profit shrinkage. The evolution of the situation where 'price for quantity' and various entities continuously shrink their balance sheets in the later stages has shown sporadic signs of damage to 'quantity' and risk: for example, in the first half of 2024, the per capita disposable income of Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Tianjin and Guangdong, with higher disposable income, grew slower than the same period GDP at constant prices, indicating that demand is not keeping up with supply growth. As a result, five provinces or municipalities including Beijing and Shanghai experienced negative growth in total retail sales of consumer goods, even excluding prices, indicating that after 'price for quantity' reaches an interval with very low demand-price elasticity, it will ultimately affect 'quantity'. When demand is unstable, high-frequency economic indicators show that production is beginning to weaken: the PMI production sub-index continues to decline and is below the 50 mark of prosperity and decline, the production involvement of a wide range of upstream and midstream materials has fallen, achieving the 5% target for the whole year has become more difficult, so on September 12, General Secretary **** emphasized 'grasping the economic work at the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, striving to complete the annual economic and social development goals'. Progressing from the previous 'firmly achieve' to 'strive to complete' in the expression of economic goals shows that the decision-making level has recognized the true state of the economy, leading to the eventual release of positive policies.

2 政策意在放缓“去金融化”过程，保证经济活动的运转。

一方面是延缓过去债务扩张的居民主体“去杠杆”的过程：在居民资产分布较多的房地产上，央行表示将引导降低存量房贷利率平均50BP，预计减轻居民的利息负担150 billion元左右，9月26日政治局会议上提出促进房地产市场“止跌回稳”，若房价能够企稳将有利于居民修复资产负债表；在房地产市场以外，政策拓宽了另一个资产增值和“财富效应”的渠道——股市，9月24日央行宣布通过创新结构性货币政策工具，鼓励上市公司和金融机构加大入市力度，改善股市微观流动性，9月26日政治局会议在上述基础上特别提出研究出台保护中小投资者的政策措施；另一方面，则是加快政府成为加杠杆主体的进程，9月26日政治局会议对财政政策表述是“加大财政政策逆周期调节力度，保证必要的财政支出……发行用好超长期特别国债和地方政府专项债，更好发挥政府投资带动作用”。在全社会资产负债表的调节以外，政策也聚焦于“收入”和“消费”等当期流量：实施收入调节，提高劳动报酬，激发低收入人群消费潜力的思路没有改变。

3 未来修复的空间？类比几个“放开”的时点。

我们寻找了4个过去影响经济、社会生活的限制性措施放开的时点，匹配了4条逻辑下可以观测的市场位置指标，测算了未来A股反弹的空间，结论是：如果单纯类比过去相似情形的反弹涨幅，那么后续修复空间已经不大，但如果以相对指标来进行比较，例如自由流通市值与居民持有M2的比例、中美市场之间的涨幅差异，那么反弹空间还较为充分，关键的区别和假设在于这两个指标背后所隐含的居民加杠杆能力、意愿，以及中美权益市场定价差异这几个因素自2022年以来的趋势性下行能否被政策扭转。而这一趋势扭转需要观察到进一步的约束放松，我们也梳理了一些可以观测的路标：例如房价调控力度、居民入市门槛（比如融资保证金比例下调）、地方政府债务化解任务、中央政府加杠杆的“财政纪律”。

4 反弹是主基调，结构更加精彩。

在阻止价格和需求螺旋下行初期，受损的消费、制造业反弹较大是正常现象，随后市场将再度向实物消耗回归。（1）资源相关领域将获得来自中国的需求改善，我们推荐：有色（铜、铝、黄金）、能源（煤炭、原油）船运（干散、造船、油运），其中，干散对中国需求的敏感性更高。（2）金融板块：银行初现财政事权抓手的端倪；在非银金融层面，政策支持产业转型并购，券商集中度有望提升，在引导中长期资金入市的背景下，保险资产端配置的“资产荒”有望改善。（3）央国企和红利，央行创设的资本市场互换便利、回购/增持支持再贷款与并购重组，这些资源率先会更容易被经营稳定、信用较好的企业获得。（4）部分制造业格局优化开始出现：家电、农化制品、商用车。

风险提示：1）宏观经济波动；2）地缘风险。

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Editor/Lambor