下调目标价为 19.79 元，维持增持评级。公司受益内需外贸双轮驱动，业绩有望持续增长。受产品交付影响公司业绩短期承压，我们下调2024-25 年EPS 为0.36/0.49 元（24/25 年前值为0.71/0.91 元），新增2026 年EPS 为0.61 元，考虑到公司是我国防空预警雷达核心供应商，给予24 年55 倍PE，下调目标价为19.79 元，增持评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was affected by product deliveries, under short-term pressure. The company benefits from defense informatization construction and foreign trade two-wheel drive, accelerates the cultivation of new quality productivity, expands new fields of air traffic control radar and low altitude, and is expected to continue to grow at a high rate.
Key points of investment:
The target price was lowered to 19.79 yuan, and the rating for increasing holdings was maintained. The company benefits from domestic demand and foreign trade two-wheel drive, and its performance is expected to continue to grow. Due to the short-term pressure on the company's performance due to product delivery, we lowered the 2024-25 EPS to 0.36/0.49 yuan (the value was 0.71/0.91 yuan before 24/25) and added 0.61 yuan to the 2026 EPS. Considering that the company is the core supplier of air defense warning radar in China, 55 times PE was given in 24 years, and the target price was lowered to 19.79 yuan to increase the holding rating.
Short-term performance is under pressure due to product delivery. In the first half of 2024, due to factors such as user procurement policy adjustments, international market uncertainty, and seasonal characteristics, the product delivery schedule was delayed, and the company's performance declined year-on-year, achieving operating income of 65.8337 million yuan (-81.78%) and net profit to mother of -39.3597 million yuan (29.5191 million yuan for the same period of 2023).
The company benefits from defense informatization construction and foreign trade two-wheel drive to accelerate the cultivation of new quality productivity and expand new fields of air traffic control radar and low altitude. 1) The air defense warning radar market continues to be explored in depth: Air defense warning radars are the core equipment for electronic warfare and information warfare. Benefiting from the modernization of our military, information technology equipment, including military radars, will be the focus of investment in weapons and equipment in the long run. The competitiveness of China's air defense warning radar in the international market is increasing year by year, and foreign trade exports will usher in good development opportunities. 2) Main forces in the field of air defense warning radar: The company's air defense warning radar products have become the main equipment in the field of air defense warning in China. The products have covered many military branches. At the same time, they are actively strengthening exchanges and cooperation with military trade companies, promoting international market development, and promoting export approval of products. 3) Actively expand new industrial fields: The company won a bid for a military air control radar supporting equipment development project to enter the first step in the air traffic control radar support field; set up a low-altitude division to broaden the new industrial circuit, actively participate in the demonstration and discussion of local government low-altitude economic development plans, carry out key technical research and new product research and development around the needs of the military and civilian low-altitude markets, and the industrialization of the low-altitude field has been fully accelerated. 4) Comprehensively promote the construction of the “New South Lake”: By the end of June 2024, the construction of the company's new park located in the Jingzhou National Economic Development Zone was nearing completion. It is expected to be put into use in the second half of 2024. After commissioning, it will greatly improve the company's scientific research and production infrastructure support capabilities, and raise the level of digitalization and intelligence in manufacturing.
Catalyst: Demand for advanced radar equipment in the foreign trade market has exceeded expectations.
Risk warning: The company's new product development progress falls short of expectations, and customer demand falls short of expectations.
