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林园“火线发声”:真正的牛市还没开始,坚定待在A股里

Lin Yuan 'sudden voice': The real bull market has not started yet, stay firm in A-shares.

wallstreetcn ·  Sep 30 10:17

People who talk about risks at this time are those lacking common sense.

September 29th - In the eyes of many investors, it is the first weekend after the bull market, and the billions of private equity funds are not 'idle.'

Lin Yuan is one example.

Lin Yuan, as the first generation bull in A shares, the first generation leader of sun private equity, is still active at the forefront of investment.

In the past two years, this usually 'talkative' big shot of private equity has begun to keep silent.

As the A-share market saw a 'sudden' rise in the past few days, Lin Yuan, unable to sit still, took the initiative to communicate with investors on social platforms for nearly an hour.

During this exchange, he made several 'astonishing' remarks.

There is currently no bubble in the stock market.

Lin Yuan stated: The stock market operates without any specific reasons, it should rise when it falls a lot, and fall when it rises a lot. When the stock market is in a situation where asset prices are very cheap, the phenomenon of a continuous three-day surge this week can happen at anytime.

"We determine: the current position is still very cheap. There is no bubble in the current stock market."

The central point of the SSE Composite Index should be at 4200 points, and above 4200 points is considered 'normal'. The current position at 3000 points indicates that the market does not have a bubble.

Currently, near 3000 points, very few stock investors are making profits at this position, with the majority still in a loss state. For example, the index-weighted stocks represented by banks, although having risen significantly before, the market value of bank stocks is not large, with most sectors still continuing to decline, so there are not many people participating in the rising sectors. Therefore, the vast majority are still losing money.

Lin Yuan also mentioned: The common sense of the market over the years tells him that people now do not have soaring confidence, but fundamentally 'dare not', very few people dare to open trading accounts, and most are heavily in loss. Even some institutional investors and market block orders, their positions are almost not large, and there are very few people with heavy positions.

So, those who discuss risk at this time are lacking common sense.

Mouth business

Lin Yuan has always stated publicly that he is bullish on 'mouth business' (referring to the food & beverage and pharmaceutical industries). In this statement, he also mentioned the related industry.

Lin Yuan said that once there is overcapacity in the consumption and pharmaceutical representative "mouth business", it is easy to adjust in the production process, because most of them have expiration dates for food and drinks.

It's not possible to keep too much baijiu. If you investigate 100 people, how many actually have bottles of baijiu at home? Does it also take up space?

Therefore, businesses related to the mouth are very easy to "balance" and easily correct (production) overcapacity.

Looking at the pharmaceutical industry again, in the next twenty or thirty years, the elderly population in China will definitely increase. Under aging, the pharmaceutical industry has huge space, which is rigid demand. In addition, there is also corresponding market demand for elderly housewares.

Gold is everywhere.

Lin Yuan also believes that both dividend assets and growth assets will have opportunities in the future, the key is individual investment inclination.

He believes that there are opportunities in the market that are rare in decades, and now is the time to bend down to pick up money. Every investor has a different mindset, but they all have opportunities. Personally, I am more bullish on growth assets, such as the investment opportunities in aging mentioned earlier, which have a very large investment space.

To get rich, you need to look for things that can change your destiny, such as the opportunity for the internet to go from zero to one, seize the opportunity of industry transformation to make big money, that is, things that go from nothing to become very large and replace others. Therefore, one should invest in growth assets.

He also mentioned that he has never heard of anyone buying a shop to rent out and getting rich in the end, there is no such case in the world.

The stock market has the best companies.

Currently, there is no adjustment in (fund operation), at this stage, all assets in the entire market are very cheap, we need to stay in this market and wait for the exciting bull market to arrive.

Therefore, what needs to be considered is the resilience of assets, so the investment portfolio (in the near future) should consider the allocation of dividend stocks, growth stocks, and cash assets, maintaining a high position in the market and waiting.

Lin Yuan stated that the experience in domestic and foreign markets over the past few decades:

Those who are timid and always say they have made money cannot become rich, while those who have stayed in the stock market have eventually become bosses.

For example, if you just hold the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it can outperform more than 90% of businesses, what does this demonstrate? The Chinese stock index already represents the world's best companies.

I am confident in the Chinese economy.

Lin Yuan also stated that he is bullish on China's macroeconomy, as Chinese people tend to save money. With most people holding cash, what (debt) risks do they have?

China's external debt is not high. How many US dollars have been issued in debt? While local debts may seem significant, in reality they are quite low on a per capita basis, and they are self-owned debts. With commodities currently not in short supply, what's wrong with printing some money?

China's economy is one of the best in the world. From a financial perspective, the US carries much greater risks as the government is heavily indebted, unlike China with relatively low debt.

I am full of confidence. The Renminbi should be a strong currency because it is backed by real assets. China's assets are not worthless, they are undervalued.

The leverage we see is not actually leverage.

The real bull market has not started yet.

The current (continuous rise this week) is a small rebound after a fall, which is a correction in the market index. The real bull market has not started yet. It's like a seriously ill patient suddenly feeling better today, with a positive trend in the future.

After the real bull market arrives, the characteristic is that the majority will start making money. At least forty to fifty percent of people will start earning, which is the performance of a bull market.

(SSE Composite Index) rising to 4500 points is the starting point of a bull market. I am fundamentally operating at full capacity. Even if I don't buy, I have to buy. My actions tell me that I must buy.

In fact, today is the time to change your destiny. You can choose not to seize it, but in life, at crucial moments like today, if you don't seize it, then you will definitely fail. However, those who seize such opportunities are very few, seize it once is enough.

We must buy and not sell.

It is very difficult to make this decision now because most people are losing money in this market. You ask them to buy, but they dare not buy. What I am bullish on is a long-term bull market.

Getting rich is always for a few people.

Why do we say, 'A newborn calf isn't afraid of tigers'...it's human nature. There is no way around it.

Why? Getting rich will always be for a few people, truly making money is determined by their way of thinking, so at this time, I think many fund managers should be replaced. 90% of fund managers may need to be replaced with a new group of people with advantageous thinking to participate, their performance will definitely be good...

When a person is born, their way of thinking may be determined at the age of three. Their every word and action are things within the genetics of a three-year-old, which is hard to change.

Seizing opportunities is destiny, you just need to seize this opportunity. Therefore, we say that investing requires passion. For example, if you buy a stock that rises a lot today, and you get stuck, you need to reflect on yourself. Because people have minds, they will reflect and think, 'Was I too impulsive?'

Some people always treat investing as a job rather than a temporary interest.

With continuous bullish policies, have the multiple large green candles in the A-share market changed your perspective? It may be troublesome to access A-shares in Hong Kong, but you can trade in just 3 steps on Futu>>

Related recommendations: How can Hong Kong investors trade A-shares?

Editor/Lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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