投资分析意见：考虑到未来原油供需偏宽松，油价存在下跌预期，炼化虽然价差修复，但会存在一定库存损失，并且需求复苏情况略低于我们预期，因此我们下调2024-2026 年盈利预测至81、105、124 亿元（原值为95、126、140），对应PE 估值为13X、10X、8X 。对比民营炼化优质企业荣盛石化、东方盛虹、桐昆股份，2024 年恒力石化PE 较可比公司有20%以上的增长空间，维持“买入”评级。Key points of investment:
An integrated refining and chemical company from the bottom up is expected to maintain high dividends. The company is a high-quality private enterprise with refining as its main business. It has built an integrated industrial chain of “crude oil - aromatic hydrocarbons, olefins - refined terephthalic acid (PTA) - polyester (PET) - chemical fiber, new materials” from the bottom up. It currently has a processing capacity of 20 million tons of crude oil and 5 million tons of raw coal. The company has excellent cost control capabilities and management experience. The average ROE level in the past 5 years has reached 22%, which is higher than other leading private refining companies in the industry. Since 2023, new construction projects have been completed, put into operation, or are in the trial production stage. The amount of construction projects under construction has increased significantly, and the subsequent capital expenditure of the company will come to an end. It is expected that in the future, as cash flow increases, the company's balance ratio is expected to decrease, and the level of dividends is expected to increase.
The central decline in oil prices has led to improvements in refining and chemical costs, and aromatic hydrocarbons are expected to remain high. It is expected that in 2024, driven by OPEC Union production cuts, the overall supply and demand for crude oil will show weak growth, and the oil price center is expected to maintain a high level. Starting in the second quarter of 2025, driven by increased production in non-OPEC countries, crude oil supply and demand are expected to broaden, and the oil price center is expected to decline, driving improvements in refining and chemical costs. On the downstream product side, aromatics supply and demand maintain a tight balance, and the boom is expected to continue at a high level. Among them, PX supply and demand may continue to be high as downstream PTA production capacity is gradually invested. As pure benzene enters an expansion period, profits are also expected to rise; there is currently excess supply and demand for olefins, and a large number of domestic olefin production capacity projects are still in production in 2024-2026. It is expected that olefin profits will remain fluctuating at the bottom and will enter an upward cycle after 2027; refined oil? The cost advantage is significant, and the new materials project contributes to increased performance. In terms of cost, the company uses boiling bed hydrocracking and is equipped with advanced heavy oil processing equipment. Poor quality oil and heavy oil account for a relatively high proportion of raw materials, and the procurement cost of crude oil is relatively lower. The company has also achieved industry leadership in terms of scale advantages and supporting advantages. Furthermore, in terms of process route selection, the company's aromatic products account for a relatively high proportion. Compared with other refining products, aromatic hydrocarbon profits are relatively better in the current environment. The gradual launch of the company's high-performance resin and new material project with an annual output of 1.6 million tons from 2024-2025, and Kanghui's new materials film project will drive the company's performance upward.
Investment analysis opinion: Considering the loose supply and demand of crude oil in the future, oil prices are expected to fall. Although the price difference is fixed, there will be some inventory loss, and demand recovery is slightly lower than our expectations. Therefore, we lowered our 2024-2026 profit forecast to 8.1, 10.5, and 12.4 billion yuan (original values were 95, 126, 140), and the corresponding PE valuations were 13X, 10X, and 8X. Compared with high-quality private refining and chemical companies Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Tongkun shares, Hengli Petrochemical PE had more than 20% room to grow in 2024 compared to comparable companies, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of large fluctuations in oil prices, the risk that the recovery of refining and chemical demand will not meet expectations, the risk that the company's new project will not meet expectations, the risk that the company's dividends will not meet expectations, etc.