Author: Shinobi, Bitcoin Magazine; Translation: Wuzhu, Golden Finance

Mircea Popescu is a nearly forgotten figure in this field, but he was once an early and influential cultural figure, later fading from public view before ultimately 'accidentally' drowning off the coast of Costa Rica. He was quite eccentric and peculiar, but he left a lasting impact on this field. I consider him essentially the godfather of what people today perceive as 'toxic extremism,' although compared to those who claim this label today, he makes them look like overly sensitive and whiny children.

In my view, one of his most insightful posts is his reflections on Bitcoin prices and their long-term market dynamics since 2013. He discusses the dynamics of supply and demand interaction, especially the mindset of current Bitcoin holders, who compared to ordinary consumers, may or may not have the motivation to accumulate Bitcoin in response to the deterioration of the fiat currency system.

He viewed the assumed friction between these two groups as a stalemate, where current holders do not have much incentive to give up their Bitcoin, and if Bitcoin holders were to do so, those trying to escape devaluing fiat currencies also lack real recourse.

He proposed three possible ways to resolve this stalemate.

'One of them is for consumers to give in, and Bitcoin's price rises to around several thousand dollars, urging people to rid society of this dysfunctional standard. Banks start accepting Bitcoin deposits, Bitcoin hedge funds are everywhere, the chairmen of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and everyone else will come to Timişoara, as long as they want to take action, get my support, and so on.'

This seems to be the path we are currently on. Abandoning the existing system, integrating into the traditional financial system, idolizing early adopters, and Bitcoin as a solution to systemic issues with fiat currency. This is why Bitcoiners are cheering for our progress now, citing every bit of news about banks, ETFs, and investment funds as evidence of their surrender! We've won!

This is pure fantasy. Trump pandering to Bitcoiners seeking campaign funds offers no real benefits to Bitcoin; he is and will always be a fan of the dollar. His mindset is based on the idea of a printing press, exporting our inflation globally, which is a very positive thing for American interests. For similar reasons, the vast majority of the Democratic Party hold hostile attitudes toward this field.

Even if such a future really becomes a reality, rather than just in name only, it will be a very terrifying and depressing future for anyone who sees bitcoin as a tool of freedom and sovereignty. Using bitcoin will hardly provide this service to anyone. Hedge funds, banks, and etf will all become key holders for the vast majority of people. No one will truly possess any degree of freedom, it will be the same financial system that we currently exist in, where nothing can be done without seeking permission from some overlord who truly controls your funds. Regulation will not promote more competition in this field, existing participants will use their revolving doors to encourage the capture and fortification of the privileged positions they hold in this role.

This path essentially implies the failure of bitcoin as a tool of freedom, we are now witnessing the same game being played out, imposing slightly stricter rules on the few privileged individuals who can sit at the negotiating table.

"Another reason is consumer resistance, government intervention, and all of us fighting over the remaining time of this decade. The price of bitcoin has also risen to thousands of dollars, but the energy, effort, and resources that could have been used to easily yield and effectively submit have been wasted on the ultimately doomed efforts of using strength to coerce the weak. Neutral and uninvolved governments have won, as the dust settles, the balance of macroeconomic power has shifted from the Western world to countries like China, Iran, Brazil, and others."

This is their openly opposed path to bitcoin. People are actually beginning to massively adopt bitcoin, and governments instinctively react, trying to prevent this situation from occurring. From now on, things are like dominoes, as bitcoin becomes a more important aspect in the global finance outside the traditional financial system, those countries that oppose and refuse to let bitcoin happen will ultimately reap what they sow, while smaller, more adaptable jurisdictions, if detached or accepting of this change, will ultimately benefit greatly.

In this world, Western governments have made using bitcoin an extremely difficult task, but people have persisted. Smart people elsewhere in the world either stay out of it or actively embrace it, while the West expends all its energy and resources in a futile struggle against the inevitable. While the rest of the world experiences a financial renaissance, the Western world remains stagnant, with its citizens forced to constantly strive to maintain some level of economic success (or even just make ends meet).

It may sound harsh, but this is the world I want to see. The diminishing of Western domination and forced control over other regions of the world. We have no right to rule the rest of the world as we currently do, and this path of progression will gradually strip us of our ability to continue doing so. Western citizens can embrace bitcoin, defend our personal freedom and sovereignty, and use it to protect us from the collapse of corrupt institutions.

The victory of the revolution does not come easily. To truly fulfill the expectations of many of us regarding bitcoin, a painful path must ultimately be taken. This means people must choose to take this path. Many in this field think that governments will easily concede and let bitcoin win, but this is just a feint and seizing of bitcoin.

We need to push for what they are building around them, parallel construction, forcing them to act. If they do not actively resist, then something else will happen. This is not in our favor.

Another trend is consumer resistance, with entrepreneurs entering the picture. By the end of 2015, there were approximately 1,000 to 1 million different bitcoin forks globally, each fork valued at around 1 US dollar. The market size between bitcoins, along with the ensuing complexity and chaos, makes it almost impossible for the "common person" to manage everything. Hedge funds and banks trading in this vague complexity (those who are slightly better at using Excel) are profiting immensely and becoming the main driving force of global economic growth. Not only are consumers in a similarly bad situation as now, it also makes it clear to everyone that resistance equals being hit harder, longer, with thicker, sharper tools. Equally convenient is how the act of resistance becomes more ambiguous and elusive. From a standpoint of possibilities, this appears to be the most likely outcome, as history always seems to evolve towards most cruelly exploiting the "common person."

Popescu believes this is the most likely outcome. Bitcoin continues to split, branching off countless forks from the original Bitcoin. Each region or group with different ideas will splinter into their own distinct networks. The network effect continually erodes until it becomes localized, generating more shards than people can keep track of.

Everyone thinks that it's all over, that this door just represents a phase we've gone through during and after the block size wars, and that it's closed forever. This is a delusion. Nation-states are adopting Bitcoin, and financial institutions that primarily set government policies are taking the stage and integrating it into their systems.

The world is a game of coercive and blackmailed politics. The USA invades countries and massacres hundreds of thousands just to direct commodities to flow where it wants. It is naive to imagine that they and other interest groups will not fork Bitcoin on a global scale for their benefit. I can even say that by opening the first door, these people quickly 'surrender' and seize bitcoin, it is almost guaranteed that the final door will eventually open.

This is an extreme failure. Fragmentation, with no singular network effect to enforce true scarcity of supply, and importantly, with no rules to govern global economic participants. A brief respite, then straight back to the game we know now. Any form of revolution is a complete failure.

These three doors are all still there, and we have not walked through any of them yet. No one knows which one we will eventually enter. Bitcoin people need to be a bit more humble, admitting that not only are we not close to victory, but the possibility of failure still exists. There are many ways to fail.