• The favored inflation data by the Federal Reserve, PCE, is cooling down, and many Fed members will deliver speeches.

The latest data shows that US inflation is further decelerating, with the core PCE price index rising by 0.1% monthly in August, below the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0.2%. The core PCE price index, which excludes significant factors such as food and energy price fluctuations, rose by 2.7% year-on-year.

As the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the PCE data has been getting closer to the policymakers' 2% target. This will be the beginning of further lowering policy rates in the future, aimed at boosting the labor market that is slowing down but still robust in the eyes of Fed policymakers.

This week, investors will have the opportunity to hear from many Federal Reserve members, including Powell continuing to be in the spotlight on Tuesday. Market participants will be closely watching to gain more clues about the future monetary policy direction.

Tuesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the National Business Economics Association; 2024 FOMC voters, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Fed Governor Lael Brainard will co-host a meeting.

Wednesday: 2024 FOMC voters Bostic, Barkin, and 2025 FOMC voter Collins will participate in a group activity. 2024 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester will give a speech. 2025 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Bullard, will deliver the opening remarks at an event. Fed Governor Bowman will deliver a speech.

Thursday: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will have a fireside chat on an inclusive economy.

Friday: FOMC Permanent Voters, New York Fed President Williams will deliver the opening remarks at a meeting held by the New York Fed.

• As inflation continues to cool down, the Federal Reserve shifts its focus to employment, including ADP.non-farm payroll dataHeavyweight is coming!

With inflation continuing to cool down, Federal Reserve officials are now more focused on the labor market situation. The American ADP, known as the "mini non-farm payroll," will be released next Wednesday, while the more significant U.S. non-farm payrolls for September will be released next Friday.non-farm payroll dataScheduled for release next Friday.

In order to maintain the gains of the U.S. dollar, Friday's non-farm payroll report may need to show improvement. Currently, the market predicts that the U.S. economy added 0.145 million jobs in September, slightly higher than the 0.142 million in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%.

If the job market underperforms expectations, the Fed may accelerate its rate cut pace. Currently, the market expects that the Fed's likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in November is slightly higher than a 25 basis point cut.

However, before the release of non-farm data, the ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI for September, announced on Tuesday and Thursday respectively, may be closely watched. The market may look for early signs of how the US economy performed in the third quarter.

• In China, the Manufacturing and Service PMI will be released; Hong Kong stocks will be closed for one day, while A-shares will be closed for seven days.

In China, on September 30, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) monthly report. Caixin will publish the Caixin General Services Business Activity Index (Caixin Services PMI) and the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Caixin Manufacturing PMI) for China.

Previous data shows that in August, the official Manufacturing PMI was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing business conditions; in August, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose by 0.6 percentage points to 50.4, back above the boom-bust line; the Caixin Services PMI recorded 51.6, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from July.

In addition, Hong Kong stocks will be closed on October 1 (Tuesday), and will resume normal trading on October 2 (Wednesday); A-shares will be closed from October 1 to 7, and from October 1 to 7, the Hong Kong Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will suspend trading.

• Eurozone CPI data for September will be released, with inflation data meeting expectations potentially accelerating the ECB rate cut.

On Tuesday, Eurostat will release the initial values of the September Eurozone Harmonised CPI year-on-year and month-on-month. Currently, the market generally expects the Eurozone CPI year-on-year initial value to drop from 2.2% last month to 2%, reaching the ECB's target for the first time since August 2021; the expected Eurozone CPI month-on-month growth rate is 0.1%.

Currently, the market expects that the European Central Bank will announce a rate cut of 25 basis points on the decision date of October 17, with a probability of over 80%. Analysts generally believe that if Eurozone inflation data meets expectations, it will further strengthen the market's view of the ECB accelerating rate cuts. Traders are increasing bets on the ECB rate cuts in the context of economic slowdown and cooling inflation.

• Shigeru Ishiba was elected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Japan will release the unemployment rate for August.

Due to Shigeru Ishiba being elected as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, the Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar in the forex market. When asked whether the Bank of Japan will further raise interest rates, Shigeru Ishiba told NHK in Japan: "It will be decided by the Bank of Japan, whose responsibility is to achieve price stability in close cooperation with the government." He said," From the government's perspective, given the current economic situation, monetary policy must remain accommodative.

Due to the Bank of Japan raising interest rates and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the Japan-US interest rate spread is narrowing, but there is still a significant gap, so the view that the yen will appreciate unilaterally is not widely held. Officials from the Bank of Japan stated: "Even if Yoshihide Suga is elected, it does not mean that there can be a significant rate hike."

Tokyo's inflation data is considered a leading indicator reflecting the trend of national prices in Japan. Previously, the Bank of Japan stated that if Japan's inflation rate can still steadily reach 2%, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates.

This week's key performance calendar

Monday, September 30th

Keywords: USA Chicago PMI; China manufacturing, service PMI; Carnival Cruise financial report.

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the USA Chicago PMI, China official manufacturing PMI, and China Caixin manufacturing/service PMI will be released.

In terms of financial events, European Central Bank President Lagarde will give an introductory speech at the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Financial reports: Hong Kong Stock Exchange$C HIGHPRECISION (00591.HK)$and American stocks $Carnival (CCL.US)$and$Playtech (PYTCY.US)$Will release financial report.

In terms of new stocks, a kitchenware brand from Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China$CAROTE LTD (02549.HK)$ Will announce the results of global offering of approximately 0.13 billion shares on September 30 (Monday), with an offering price per share of 5.72-5.78 Hong Kong dollars.

Tuesday, October 1

Keywords: USA ISM Manufacturing PMI; Japan Unemployment Rate; Powell Speech; Nike Financial Report; National Day, Hong Kong Stock, A-share market closed.

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, the USA's September ISM Manufacturing PMI, August JOLTs Job Openings, and August Construction Spending Rate will be released.

In terms of financial events, Fed Chairman Powell delivered a speech at the National Association for Business Economics in the USA, and the Bank of Japan released a summary of the opinions of the members of the September monetary policy meeting.

In terms of financial reports, $McCormick & Co (MKC.US)$ Will release financial report ahead of the U.S. pre-market trading, $Nike (NKE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Lamb Weston (LW.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

In addition, during the National Day holiday, the Hong Kong stock market and A-shares are closed, while the Hong Kong stock connect and Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect are suspended.

Wednesday, October 2nd

Keywords: US September 'small non-farm' ADP employment data; Federal Reserve Governor Baumann speech; Hong Kong stock market new stock Carlode listed

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the eurozone unemployment rate for August and the US September ADP employment data will be released.

In terms of financial events, in 2024, FOMC voters Bostic and Barkin, and in 2025, FOMC voter Collins will participate in a group activity; in 2024, FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Lael Brainard will give a speech; in 2025, FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musleh will deliver the opening speech at an event; Federal Reserve Governor Baumann will give a speech.

In terms of financial reports, $Conagra Brands (CAG.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Perimeter Solutions (PRM.US)$ Will release financial report ahead of the U.S. pre-market trading, $Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI.US)$ Will announce financial results after the US stock market closes.

In terms of new stocks, a kitchenware brand from Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China$CAROTE LTD (02549.HK)$ Will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 2nd.

In addition, during National Day, A-shares will be closed, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will pause trading.

Thursday, October 3rd

Keywords: Initial Jobless Claims in the usa; Non-Manufacturing ISM PMI in usa

In terms of economic data, Initial Jobless Claims in the usa, s&p global Composite PMI Final Value for September in the usa, Non-Manufacturing ISM PMI for September in the usa, Final Values for September Services/Composite PMIs in France/Germany/Eurozone will be released.

In financial events, Minneapolis Fed Chair Kashkari and Atlanta Fed Chair Bostic will have a fireside chat on inclusive economics.

In terms of financial reports, $Constellation Brands (STZ.US)$ Will release financial report ahead of the U.S. pre-market trading, $TESCO PLC SPN/AD (TSCDY.US)$Financial reports will also be released.

During National Day, A-shares will be closed, and trading in the Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will be suspended.

Friday, October 4th

Keywords: US unemployment rate; US seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in September

On the economic data front, the US seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population for September and the US unemployment rate for September will be released.

In terms of financial events, opening remarks will be given at a meeting held by the FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams.

In terms of financial reports, $YASKAWA Electric (ADR) (YASKY.US)$ Will release financial report.

In addition, during National Day, A-shares will be closed, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shanghai-Shenzhen Stock Connect will pause trading.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/Rocky