Smart Finance News App learned that Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of China Passenger Car Association, stated in an article that in August 2024, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle insurance data was 784 units, with a 35% increase in sales volume and an 18% decrease month-on-month; the insurance data from January to August was 4,227 units, a 21% year-on-year increase. Due to the sales mainly relying on the December surge, it is currently difficult to determine the full-year trend.

1. Trend of Fuel Cell Vehicles

In August 2024, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle insurance data was 784 units, with a 35% increase in insurance data and an 18% decrease month-on-month. The sales volume from January to August was 4,227 units, a 21% year-on-year increase. Due to the sales mainly relying on the December surge, it is currently difficult to determine the full-year trend.

2. Monthly Trend of Fuel Cell Vehicles

Recently, the trend of insurance data for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been relatively strong, but there is also some fluctuation. Sales in June and August of this year were relatively low, which is also a lagging factor of low insurance efficiency. However, overall hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are strong and still at historical high levels of monthly sales in the industry. The key is the December surge, which was strong last year at 2,247 units, and this year is also worth looking forward to.

3. Market Structure of Fuel Cell Vehicles

From 2017 to 2020, freight trucks occupied the main market, mainly because in the early stages of fuel cell vehicle development, the low-power system of 30kw-45kw was very compatible with the operating scenarios of light logistics vehicles and relatively low in cost, such as batch demonstration operations of nearly 500 box trucks in Shanghai.

Starting in 2019, with the shift of the government subsidy policy focus and the demonstration effect of the double Winter Olympics, fuel cell buses, coaches, and tractor vehicles quickly gained momentum and seized market share, squeezing the market for freight vehicles; coupled with the impact of the epidemic on the logistics industry, the fuel cell freight truck market shrank sharply and fell short of expectations.

Starting in 2021, logistics vehicles, tractor vehicles, and dump trucks have shown their superiority in terms of both economy and endurance, gradually entering the market in large quantities and being put into demonstration applications.

At present, coaches are mainly commuter vehicles; special vehicles include concrete mixers, garbage trucks, sanitation vehicles, and cleaning vehicles, mainly sanitation vehicles; Class B vehicles have high prices, and factors such as hydrogen refueling restrictions exist, currently mainly for demonstration, with few models. The demand for hydrogen fuel vehicles in the coach market is weak, local governments are short of money, public transportation is in serious deficit, and the usage scenarios are not feasible.

4. Subsidy Policies Driving Structural Development of Hydrogen Energy

Hydrogen fuel vehicles are the result of policy subsidies, driven by policy subsidies and unsustainable, thus having high volatility with less impact from market factors. The national subsidy procurement cost for a 49-ton heavy truck is approximately 0.46 million. In Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong, in addition to national subsidies, there are corresponding local subsidies, making the total subsidy for hydrogen heavy trucks close to 1 million. Currently, the price of hydrogen heavy trucks is approximately 1.25 million, compared to about 0.35 million for gasoline vehicles. If additional certification costs are added, it would be less than 40,000. There is an approximate 0.85 million gap between the two, but considering national and local subsidies, the procurement cost of hydrogen vehicles can be significantly lower than that of gasoline vehicles.

Tractor units have strong cost-effectiveness in long-haul logistics and mining scenarios, widely used in ports and western mining areas; cold chain logistics models demonstrate superior performance in both economic and endurance capabilities, hence independently as important vehicle types. Due to recent high subsidies, the sales of new energy hydrogen energy products for heavy-duty trucks have been excavated. Some regions are promoting high-speed toll-free policies, highlighting the subsidy effect even more. As for trunk logistics, the toll-free policy on highways can be estimated at 2.5 yuan per kilometer, if running 600 kilometers per day, the annual toll savings for 300 days can reach about 0.45 million, which means saving the cost of a new vehicle in about a year through the toll-free policy. Dump trucks are mainly dump trucks used to load heavy goods such as mud, sand, and ore, operating in harsh environments.

As a subset in the field of buses, buses have complex performance. The earlier buses had significant subsidies in the million-level for pure electric buses, and recently without subsidies, the market has shrunk.

5. Trends in the regional market of fuel cell vehicles

Fuel cell vehicles are mainly concentrated in early demonstration city clusters such as guangdong, shanghai, and beijing. In recent years, new demonstration city clusters such as hebei and henan have developed rapidly. This year, the sales of hydrogen fuel vehicles are mainly in developed regions such as beijing, guangdong, and shanghai, while tianjin and hebei, among others, have better acceptance of hydrogen fuel vehicles in the steel market.

By 2025, the goal is to have 0.05 million hydrogen fuel vehicles and build more than two thousand hydrogen refueling stations. Currently, the scale of hydrogen stations is small, profitability is poor, and the site selection and construction of refueling stations are difficult, making new hydrogen stations quite challenging, with the land and cost of building new sites being quite high. Jiangsu, zhejiang, sichuan, chongqing, shandong, shanxi, wuhan, shaanxi, among other potential demonstration city clusters, have great potential and are in urgent need of breakthroughs.

6. Main hydrogen fuel vehicle manufacturers

The main manufacturers of hydrogen fuel vehicles are relatively diversified, after all, there are not many core technologies, mainly assembly models, so each manufacturer can produce some. Last year, yutong bus co.,ltd. and dongfeng automobile had more hydrogen energy vehicles, but this year's sales are temporarily low.

Currently, the price of clean energy in Shandong is about 30 yuan per kilogram. The number of hydrogen refueling stations is around 35. Considering the cost of self-production, self-sales, storage, transportation, and refueling stations, the storage and transportation links in the industry chain in Shandong are profitable. The cost of industrial by-product hydrogen production is about 8-9 yuan per kilogram, with additional commissions possibly adding a few yuan, as well as fixed asset depreciation, the total cost is roughly around 18 to 20 yuan. Adding transportation costs, the final price at the station may cover production costs. Most regions provide local subsidies for hydrogen sales. The subsidy amounts vary greatly in different regions, ranging from 10 yuan to 20 yuan, depending on financial strength. Currently, selling hydrogen in the hydrogen industry chain is profitable.