Vometinib is gradually confirming its BIC status, and domestic sales peak is expected to exceed 5.5 billion yuan. In horizontal comparison among the currently marketed third-generation EGFR-TKI, vormetinib has advantages such as obvious efficacy benefits, good brain permeability, and low TRAE. Effective data were read on EGFR exon20ins and PACC mutants. Head-to-head phase 3 clinical trials of osimetinib have been initiated, and evidence-based evidence has gradually confirmed vormetinib's BIC status. The peak sales value is expected to exceed 5.5 billion yuan after adjuvant indications are approved for marketing.

Overseas equity has been sold and will continue to receive milestones and sales shares in the future. The company has authorized overseas rights of vometinib to Arrivent, and is currently progressing smoothly in phase 3 first-line treatment clinical trials for EGFR exon20ins; as more data is read out, it is also expected to push overseas partners to launch more registered clinical trials, and it will continue to receive equity share revenue in the future.

Lisence in supplementing the pipeline and building a new platform for early macromolecule research. Commercial mutual interest in RET inhibitors was obtained in November 2023, an licensing agreement was signed with Gacos for KRAS and SHP2 inhibitors in August 2024, the pipeline was replenished, and the commercial team transitioned from a single-product model to a matrix management model. Build a new platform for early macromolecule research, innovate at the source, and increase confidence in long-term growth.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We predict that the company is expected to achieve operating income of 3.383/4.358/5.264 billion yuan in 2024-2026, an increase of 67.6%/28.8%/20.8% year-on-year, and is expected to achieve net profit of 12 in 2024-2026.

7.6/1.569/1.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 98.0%/23.0%/21.5%. Considering that the company's future revenue and profit growth rate can all be maintained at a relatively high level, and the subsequent growth curve of the BD strategy is gradually clear and covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Revenue from commercial products falls short of expectations; risk that clinical development progress falls short of expectations; risk of competition between similar competitors and new technology treatments; there is a risk that public materials used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.