Despite an already strong run, Powell Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:POWL) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 33% in the last thirty days. The annual gain comes to 164% following the latest surge, making investors sit up and take notice.
Even after such a large jump in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Powell Industries' P/E ratio of 20.2x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in the United States is also close to 18x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
Powell Industries certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to deteriorate like the rest, which has kept the P/E from rising. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Powell Industries would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 251%. The latest three year period has also seen an excellent 35,752% overall rise in EPS, aided by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the three analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 12% over the next year. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 15% growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's curious that Powell Industries' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
What We Can Learn From Powell Industries' P/E?
Its shares have lifted substantially and now Powell Industries' P/E is also back up to the market median. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Powell Industries' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Powell Industries, and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Powell Industries, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
