On the evening of September 27th, Beijing time, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened slightly higher, oscillated slightly in early trading, and the Dow once again hit a new all-time high intraday. As of the time of writing,$Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$up 0.35%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up 0.09%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ up 0.1%.

On Friday, the market is weighing the preferred inflation indicators of the Federal Reserve - the August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). The index shows that inflation pressure continues to trend and ease.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the August PCE price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.2% year-on-year. Market expectations were for a 0.1% monthly increase and a 2.3% year-on-year increase. In July, the PCE index rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year.

Excluding food and energy prices, the US core PCE price index rose by 0.1% in August, down from 0.2% previously; the US core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, up from 2.6% previously. The market expects the core PCE index in August to rise by 0.1% monthly and 2.7% year-on-year.

The report also shows that personal income in the US rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August, expected at 0.4%, compared to 0.30% previously. Real personal consumption expenditure rose by 0.1% in August, expected at 0.1%, down from 0.40% previously.

The so-called core personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding the highly volatile food and energy items, rose by 0.1% in August. Spending adjusted for inflation also increased by 0.1%. Nominal personal income rose by 0.2%, while the savings rate dropped to 4.8%.

Analysts stated that the slight increase in the basic inflation and resident spending indicators favored by the Federal Reserve in August highlights the cooling of the economy.

According to the financial website Forexlive, the unrounded monthly value of the US core PCE price index for August was 0.1304%, slightly lower than the 0.14% mentioned by Federal Reserve Governor Waller. Income and expenditure data also appear slightly weak, which should enhance confidence that the economy is cooling down.

Renowned financial journalist Nick Timiraos, known as the 'voice of the Federal Reserve,' stated that the PCE indicator favored by the Fed is not far from the Fed's target. He mentioned that the preferred inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), showed a 2.2% increase in the 12 months leading up to August, not far from the Fed's 2% target.

Timiraos pointed out that one year and two years ago, this indicator was 3.4% and 6.6% respectively. Core PCE (excluding highly volatile food and energy items) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August. The core inflation rate for the previous 12 months was 3.8% a year ago and 5.4% two years ago.

After the PCE index was released, the market expected these data to prompt the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months, intensifying the ongoing debate about the extent of rate cuts.

According to the CME Group's 'FedWatch Tool', traders priced in a 45.9% probability of the Fed cutting by 25 basis points in November, and a 54.1% probability of a 50 basis points cut (pre-PCE data release probabilities were 50.1% and 49.9% respectively).

The tool also predicts that the probability of cumulative 50 basis points cuts by the Fed by December is 24.0%, 50.2% for 75 basis points, and 25.8% for 100 basis points (pre-PCE data release they were 26.0%, 50.0%, and 24.0% respectively).

Another set of data released on Friday showed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $94.3 billion in August, compared to an expected $100.2 billion deficit. The initial narrowing of the U.S. August trade deficit exceeded economists' expectations.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau's data, the August trade deficit shrank from the revised $102.8 billion in July to $94.3 billion, with an estimated deficit of $100.2 billion. The estimated range by 33 economists was between $105 billion and $97.2 billion.

A series of recent economic data releases have bolstered investors' confidence in the strength of the U.S. economy. The initial jobless claims numbers released on Thursday exceeded expectations, indicating a robust labor market, while the final second-quarter GDP stood at 3%.

LPL Financial's Chief Economist, Jeffrey Roach, stated, "The market is pleased that the Federal Reserve is readjusting policy with an aggressive stance."

Key sectors & stocks

Growth tech stocks were mixed, with Tesla and Micron Technology rising nearly 1%; Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor falling nearly 2%, while Nvidia fell over 1%.

China concept stocks continue to rise, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index expanding by 3%; Nio surges over 8%, pdd holdings up nearly 6%, trip.com up over 5%, bilibili up nearly 5%, baidu up over 4%, jd.com up nearly 4%, alibaba up nearly 3%.

$Intel (INTC.US)$ Rising more than 2%, reports suggest that Intel and the US government are striving to finalize an $8.5 billion chip financing agreement by the end of the year.

$JD.com (JD.US)$ Continuing to rise more than 4%, earlier reports mentioned that Alibaba and JD.com will open up to each other.

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Up more than 6%, LPL Financial rates byd company limited, li auto inc, and xpeng as top picks in the industry, all with an "outperform market" rating.

$Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ Rise by more than 5%, Hong Kong stocks $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ Today's surge of over 12% hits a new high. On the news front, the National Day "Golden Week" is entering the countdown, and travel is about to reach its peak.

$Costco (COST.US)$ Dropping over 2%, the company's Q4 profit exceeds expectations, but revenue falls short, with same-store sales up by 5.4%.

$Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.US)$ Rises more than 2%, US regulatory authorities have approved its Cobenfy for the treatment of schizophrenia.

Editor / jayden