种种迹象显示，随着中国资本市场展现火热涨势，大洋彼岸的华尔街分析师们正愈发感受到此次刺激政策“兹事体大”。Source: Finance Association
Author: Shi Zhengcheng
① The “big deal” of China's current stimulus policy has increasingly become the mainstream attitude of Wall Street analysts, and overseas investors are also showing concerns about “going short” while watching;
② Even after this week's sharp rise, Chinese assets are still very attractive in terms of valuation; ③ In addition to stocks, analysts are also concerned about the generalization effect of “China's benefit.”
Various signs suggest that as China's capital market shows intense gains, Wall Street analysts on the other side of the ocean are increasingly feeling that this stimulus policy is “serious.”
For example, Goldman Sachs technology strategy analyst Scott Rubner (Scott Rubner) lamented in a Thursday report that “I have held more video conferences on Chinese investment topics in the past 48 hours than before in the whole of 2024.” Rubner said that investors are increasingly feeling the fear of missing out on this wave of the Chinese market. Goldman Sachs analysts also said that investors are also increasingly inclined to believe that the current round of gains “may not subside.”
By the close of trading this Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index had been rising for the 8th day, rising all the way from a low of 2,689 points on September 18 to 3087 points. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index surged 15.70% this week. According to statistics, it is also the strongest week since 2008. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which is more familiar to overseas investors, rose 23% over the same period, and the Hang Seng Tech Index also rose close to 26%.
Other investment banks with similar views include Barclays. Kaanhari Singh, the bank's head of cross-asset strategy in Asia, also reiterated his preference for Chinese assets this week, while stressing that he is more optimistic about China compared to the Indian market.
Singh's team believes that this batch of stimulus measures may substantially boost China's GDP growth over the next two years. The Barclays team placed special emphasis on this incident: This could be big (This could be big).
For overseas institutions, the sharp rise in Chinese assets this week also revealed that their asset allocation strategies risk missing out on this round of global attention.
According to statistics, before Chinese assets picked up this week, hedge funds' investment positions in Chinese stocks were below 7%, the lowest level in nearly 5 years. Mutual funds also have only 5.1% of their holdings in Chinese assets, which is also the lowest 1% percentile in the past ten years.
More importantly, even though the MSCI China Index outperformed the global market by 15% this week (extreme value since 2007!) In this context, the rolling price-earnings ratio of the Chinese index is still only 9.4 times, and it is still considered a “very cheap” level in history. Judging from the market's enthusiasm for trading, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index these days is still far worse than in 2014.
According to Michael Harnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, this wave of stimulus from China may open up a broad investment boom — capital will pour widely into stocks, emerging markets, and commodity markets outside the US.
Harnett wrote in a report released on Friday: “Those assets that were once snubbed — industrial metals, raw materials, and international stocks — will be the 'best rotational breadth investment'. “Investors' commodity allocation is currently at its lowest position since June 2017.”
Similar to Chinese stocks, commodities are already dancing with China's advantage this week.
Data shows that under the favorable impetus of China, Luntong once again reached the 0.01 million/ton mark this Thursday. This is also the first time since June this year.
edit/emily
