Hot news

• On Friday pre-market, the USA's August core PCE price index met expectations, leading to a short-term rise in the three major futures indices.

At 20:30 Beijing time, the US core PCE price index for August rose by 2.7% year-on-year, as expected at 2.7%, and the previous value was 2.6%. As of the time of publication, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.11%.

Large-cap technology stocks are mixed in pre-market trading,$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$down 0.55%, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ up nearly 1%.

Popular China concept stocks continue to rise in pre-market trading, but the gains have narrowed slightly. $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ Rise nearly 5%, $JD.com (JD.US)$ The TOPIX index rose more than 2%.

China concept ETF continues to rise in pre-market trading, $Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares ETF (CWEB.US)$ pre-market trading up more than 5%.

• Tesla's 0% interest car purchase promotion has been extended again.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The official mini-program indicates that the interest-free purchase activity for Model 3/Y cars has been extended to October 31st for 5 years. Tesla announced the July purchase rights for its Model 3/Y models, and orders for the standard rear-wheel drive/long-range four-wheel drive models placed before July 31st can enjoy a limited-time 5-year interest-free installment purchase plan. On July 23rd, Tesla announced an extension of this activity to August 31st. On August 26th, Tesla further extended the activity to September 30th. This is now the third extension.

• JD.com continues to rise more than 2% in pre-market trading, Alibaba and JD.com will open up to each other.

$JD.com (JD.US)$Pre-market continues to rise by over 2%, with taobao and tmall about to be officially integrated.$JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$Expected to go live in mid-October.

• Trip.com rises nearly 5% in pre-market trading, expected to open at a new record high.

$TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ Today soaring over 12% to hit a new high, driving $Trip.com (TCOM.US)$ Pre-market trading in the US is up 8%, with hopes of opening at a new high. On the news front, the countdown to the National Day "Golden Week" has begun, and travel is about to peak. Guotai Junan International pointed out that for the National Day holiday, the growth in the number of travelers is more certain than the growth in per capita consumption. In the current macro consumption environment, the frequency of online travel orders and the degree of recovery in outbound tourism are the most worth paying attention to.

• Credit Suisse: BYD Company, li auto inc, and xpeng are the top choices in the industry, all rated as "outperforming the market"

Credit Suisse released a research report stating that China's policy to encourage trading in old cars for new ones is boosting the recovery of the automobile industry. Electric vehicles, in particular, are benefiting, mainly due to a shift in consumer preferences from joint venture brands with internal combustion engine (ICE) models to new energy models. With various car manufacturers launching new energy vehicle models in the second half of the year, it is expected that the penetration rate of domestically produced new energy vehicles in China will steadily increase. Credit Suisse will $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Li Auto (LI.US)$ Nvidia. $XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Listed as the industry's top choice, all rated as 'outperforming the market'.

• Toyota's global sales in August decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a 13.5% drop in China.

$Toyota Motor (TM.US)$ After a 0.7% growth in global sales in July, the year-on-year decrease in August was 3.7%, with global production decreasing by 12.6% to 808,023 units, affected by the Japanese falsification scandal and overseas recalls. Sales in Japan declined by more than 9%, while sales in China dropped by 13.5% to 152,065 units.

$Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Pre-market trading once fell nearly 5%, then the decline narrowed to about 1%.

• Costco's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, but revenue fell short, with same-store sales up 5.4%.

$Costco (COST.US)$ Announced fourth-quarter profit higher than market expectations, indicating that despite continued cost pressures, consumer spending remains robust. The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of the 2024 fiscal year ending September 1, Costco's total revenue was $79.697 billion, a 1% increase year-on-year, below the analyst average expectation of $79.96 billion.

Costco pre-market trading fell nearly 1%.

Global macro

• As expected! The US August PCE data is coming tonight.

At 20:30 on Friday Beijing time, the US August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price data will be released. The US August core PCE price index recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, the highest since April, meeting market expectations. The US August core PCE price index recorded a monthly rate of 0.1%, with an expectation of 0.20% and a previous value of 0.20%.

The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the most important economic data of the week, which may provide more clues about the extent of the rate cut in November.

• Yoshihide Suga unexpectedly elected as the President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, "igniting" expectations of a rate hike in Japan.

On September 27, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, received the majority of votes in the second round of the LDP leadership election and was elected as the new President of the Liberal Democratic Party. As per tradition, the newly elected LDP President, Shigeru Ishiba, will be appointed as Prime Minister through a parliamentary vote on October 1. After Shigeru Ishiba's election as the new President of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan,$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$IndexFutures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.Once fell by more than 2000 points during the trading session, triggeringCircuit breakerAnalysts believe that Shigeru Mau's hawkish stance may boost the yen, and the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates in the future, especially in December.

• Xinhua News Agency: Interest rate cuts have not significantly boosted demand, "soft landing" still unknown.

"New Fed Communication Agency" stated that a rate cut does not guarantee an 'economic soft landing', whether the decline in borrowing costs can stimulate new investments and spending remains a challenge. They mentioned that for the US economy to truly have a soft landing, bank lending needs to rebound, however, the loan growth rate has almost stagnated in the past year. Many businesses and households locked in low rates before the rate hike, so even with the current significant rate cuts by the Fed, we are still far from ultra-low rates. People's willingness to borrow is low, hence the effectiveness of rate cuts in boosting the economy will be limited.

• Federal Reserve Board member Cook: "Wholeheartedly" supports a 50 basis points interest rate cut.

Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook stated that she "wholeheartedly" supports the Fed's move to cut interest rates by 50 basis points last week, citing a slowing job market and easing inflation. Cook did not specify how much more monetary easing will be needed in the short term, but indicated that when considering policy paths, close attention will be paid to upcoming economic data and risk balances.

• The famous bear, known for his "shorting of the USA", patiently invested in Chinese stocks and finally ushered in a moment of glory.

"The Big Short" investor Michael Burry has been betting on China concept stocks for the long term, starting from the fourth quarter of 2022, he began aggressively positioning in Chinese concept stocks. According to his Scion Asset Management's form 13f as of the end of the second quarter, in his US stock holdings,$Alibaba (BABA.US)$It is the largest position, after increasing holdings in Q2, it accounts for 21.26% of the overall portfolio.$Baidu (BIDU.US)$and $JD.com (JD.US)$ Also listed in the top 5 holdings, the holding proportions are all close to 12%. In other words, just these three China concept stocks account for close to half of Baillie Gifford's stock holdings.

• Black Swan Fund Founder sends out an alert: U.S. stocks' "golden girl" faces the danger of abrupt termination.

Black Swan Fund Universa Investments founder and chief investment officer Mark Spitznagel stated that as the stock market hits historic highs, traders are increasingly confident in an economic soft landing. The stock market seems to be in the "golden girl zone", but he warned on Thursday that investors should be alert to second-order effects, such as even if the Fed cuts interest rates, an economic slowdown could still lead to a sudden market collapse. Spitznagel predicts a "crash" in global markets by the end of this year, possibly driven by an economic slowdown.

• Catalyzed by the interest rate cut wave,$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$Heading towards the best September ever

Loose financial conditions fuel market risk appetite, with Bitcoin poised to achieve one of its largest gains in September. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Bitcoin has risen by over 10% this month, while over the past ten years, September has averaged a 5.9% decline. Altcoin index has surged over 20%. In addition, the upcoming United States presidential election may also boost digital assets. The market expects clearer U.S. cryptocurrency regulations in the months following the election, which could uplift market sentiment.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

20:30: US August personal spending rate (%), US August PCE price index annual rate (%), US August preliminary wholesale inventory rate (%).

21:30: 2025 FOMC voting committee, Boston Fed President Collins, and Fed Governor Kugler deliver speeches.

22:00: US September final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

01:00 the next day: Total US drilling rigs (units) as of September 27.

01:15 the next day: Fed Governor Baumann participates in discussions at the Alabama Bankers Association CEO Conference.

Editor/Emily