但他在周四接受采访时表示，投资者应警惕“二阶效应”，Source: Jin10 Data
Author: Yang Large Cap
Spiessnagel expects the global market to experience a "collapse" by the end of this year.
Universa Investments founder and chief investment officer Mark Spitznagel stated that as the stock market reaches historical highs, traders' confidence in an economic soft landing is increasing, and the stock market seems to be in the "golden haired girl zone".
However, in an interview on Thursday, he warned investors to be alert to "second-order effects", such as economic slowdowns that could lead to sudden market crashes, even if the Fed cuts rates. Spitznagel expects a "crash" in the global markets before the end of the year, possibly driven by an economic slowdown.
Spitznagel said, "When the yield curve inverts and reverses, then you are entering the countdown of the black swan domain." His company is advised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of "The Black Swan". "Black swans are always lurking, but now we are entering their territory."
The S&P 500 index hit 42 historical highs in 2024, benefiting from strong corporate profits, Fed rate cuts, and expectations that the US economy will avoid a recession. However, Spitznagel believes that the Fed's lowering of borrowing costs should worry investors and prompt them to consider at what level stock prices will be next year.
He said, "Gold will fall, and cryptocurrencies will fall along with risk assets." He also added that bonds might be a safe haven. He also expects volatility to rise in the coming months.
However, Spitznagel's views are still in the minority on Wall Street, with most major banks still expecting US stocks to continue to reach new highs, even rising to 6000 points.
Goldman Sachs' chief US stock strategist said in an interview on Tuesday that he expects the S&P 500 index to trade around 6000 points in a year. This forecast implies a rise of about 5% from Monday's record closing of 5719 points and a cumulative increase of about 20% for the index this year. However, he pointed out that investors may have to experience some market volatility in the coming weeks as the election between Vice President Harris and former President Trump enters its final stages. He said that historically, this is a period of increased volatility and falling stock prices.
Editor/Jeffy