As September is coming to an end,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Q3 delivery data will also be released next week! In the previous Q2, Tesla delivered 0.444 million vehicles, higher than the expected 0.439 million units.

Market expectations for Q3 delivery data are generally optimistic. According to FactSet data, analysts unanimously expect Tesla's Q3 global total delivery volume to be 0.462 million units, a 6% year-on-year increase. Analysts also mentioned that by the fourth quarter, Tesla's delivery volume will reach a record level.

Optimistic expectations from Wall Street

Several Wall Street giants have recently raised their Tesla target prices and expected delivery volumes. Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter even stated that Tesla is expected to achieve its best quarterly performance ever in China.

Potter expects Tesla's Q3 delivery volume to be 0.459 million units, with an annual delivery volume of around 1.75 million units, while giving Tesla a target price of $310, which still has a 20% upside potential from the current stock price.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy also acknowledges Tesla's sales data in China, Levy said:

While electric vehicle sales in Europe have been weak recently, the strong performance in the Chinese market will drive Tesla deliveries to break through, with Tesla's Q3 deliveries expected to be around 0.47 million vehicles.

Tesla's sales volume in China has been weak for most of this year, but there was a strong rebound in August, providing strong support for Wall Street's optimistic expectations. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's August deliveries at the Shanghai Gigafactory were 86,697 vehicles, up 17% month-on-month; domestic sales in August were 0.063 million vehicles, reaching a new high in monthly sales in China so far this year, up 37% month-on-month.

Deutsche Bank, which has been bearish on Tesla's stock price trend in the long term, recently resumed its 'buy' rating on Tesla and listed it as the top stock in the autos industry. In addition, Deutsche Bank resumed tracking Tesla's target price, giving Tesla a target price as high as $295.

Apart from the analysts mentioned above, Baird's Ben Kallo predicts that Tesla could sell 0.48 million vehicles in Q3, UBS Group analyst Joseph Spak estimates this number to be around 0.47 million, while Tom Narayan of Royal Bank of Canada is slightly more conservative, expecting Q3 deliveries of 0.46 million vehicles.

Tesla's stock price rebounds from oversold levels.

Optimistic sales expectations combined with interest rate stimulus have opened up the upward channel for Tesla's stock price. As of the close on September 26, Tesla's stock price has rebounded by nearly 40% from the low point of 'Black Monday' on August 5, far exceeding the S&P 500 index's 12% increase during the same period, successfully erasing the year-to-date decline.

And the market has also started to heavily bet, actively participating in options trading. Currently, Tesla's trading volume accounts for 17% of all options trading in the S&P, surpassing Nvidia.

Goldman Sachs even directly recommends buying call options on Tesla, as Goldman Sachs believes that in addition to delivery data, the Robotaxi event on October 10 is also a key focus for investors. Tesla is expected to announce its fully autonomous driving technology and business prospects at the event.

Robotaxi attracts a lot of attention.

The unveiling event of the Robotaxi was originally scheduled for August 8, but due to Musk's request for design changes, it was postponed to October 10.

Wall Street generally believes that Tesla's future growth mainly comes from the execution of AI projects, especially the long-awaited Robotaxi and humanoid robot Optimus. This is also the reason why Tesla's stock price has been supported amidst sluggish electric vehicle sales.

JPMorgan Chase states that the Robotaxi will be based on the latest upgraded FSD fully autonomous driving technology. If Tesla can prove that the Robotaxi can quickly bring huge profits to the company once fully deployed in the market, then this event may further open up the upward potential for Tesla's stock price.

On September 5, Tesla's official account Tesla AI posted on social media stating that Tesla plans to launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year. This was also confirmed by Tesla China, but it was emphasized that regulatory approval is still pending.

"Cathie Wood", considered Tesla's top fan, strongly believes in Tesla's upside potential, as she predicts that by 2029, nearly 90% of Tesla's market cap and profits will be attributed to the Robotaxi autonomous taxi network created based on an incredibly powerful AI supercomputing system. Her Ark fund predicts that Tesla's stock price will reach an astounding $2600 by 2029.

In addition to Robotaxi itself, investors are also interested in whether Tesla will introduce a more affordable new model at this event. Goldman Sachs' Mark Delaney pointed out:

Is tesla providing more details or launching a new, lower-cost model at the October 10 event, which is also a topic frequently discussed among our investors.

Editor/Lambor