Based on recent industry and peer business trends, Futu slightly raised the third-quarter parcel volume growth forecast for zto express (ZTO.US) (02057.HK). The forecast has been adjusted from an 18% year-on-year increase to 19%, with a total parcel volume of 9 billion. The year-on-year growth rate is faster compared to the second quarter, due to incentives for franchise operators and improvements in the management of key performance indicators for franchisee performance. The bank expects the average freight price to drop by about 2% year-on-year, benefiting from fleet operations and resource utilization improvements, resulting in a reduction of approximately 3 Chinese yuan in transportation and sorting costs per order per parcel.

The bank estimates the company's third-quarter adjusted profit to be 2.5 billion Chinese yuan, higher than the previous forecast of 2.3 billion Chinese yuan. The full-year parcel volume growth forecast has been raised from 15% to 16%.

The bank maintains a 'buy' investment rating on zto express, with the target prices for US pre-depositary receipts and Hong Kong shares being raised from $27 and HK$214, respectively, to $29 and HK$222.