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安信国际:消费券刺激下的运动品发展机遇

Anxin International: Opportunities for the development of sports goods under the stimulus of consumer vouchers.

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 27 15:08

Consumer sentiment may gradually improve in the second half of the year. With various policy stimuli, consumption is gradually picking up, the opening rhythm of sports brands is returning, and consumer spending habits will also return to normal.

Widsdom Securities APP learned that, Anxin International released research reports stating that at the current point in time, the valuation of the sports sector has fallen to a relatively reasonable level, with most company valuations around 15 times, some close to 10 times, making them attractive. In addition, consumer sentiment may gradually improve in the second half of the year. With various policy stimuli, consumption is gradually picking up, the opening rhythm of sports brands is returning, and consumer spending habits will also return to normal. Moreover, this year as an Olympic year, the heat for the Paris Olympics is much better than expected, thus it is expected that the sports consumption sentiment in the entire second half of the year should also be better than expected, thereby boosting the performance of related companies.

In the first half of this year, while the consumer sector was under pressure, the sports goods sector performed well, with trends basically in line with the large cap. However, in the second half of the year, the valuation of the sports goods sector has also fallen somewhat, mainly because the mid-term performance basically met expectations without too many surprises. At the same time, due to a cautious attitude towards the consumption environment, most sports goods companies have maintained or lowered their full-year guidance, leading to a slight decline in investment sentiment.

On the news side, Shanghai announced that it will allocate 0.5 billion yuan to distribute consumer coupons, with the first batch available for application on September 28th, covering dining, lodging, movies, and sports. It is reported that from September 28th to December 31st, the Shanghai Sports Bureau will distribute 27 million yuan, including a special fund of 20 million yuan for this coupon distribution, and 7 million yuan from the Shanghai Sports Bureau's own funds, recruiting over 700 designated sports venues in various districts of Shanghai to participate in the service.

Recommended symbols: Anta Sports (02020), Li Ning (02331), Nike (NKE.US), Topsports (06110)

Anta Sports (02020): Recommendation rationale: The management announced a buyback plan at the mid-term earnings conference, planning to repurchase up to 10 billion Hong Kong dollars, and also announced a mid-term dividend of 118 Hong Kong cents per share. The buyback + dividend plan fully reflects management's confidence as well as their emphasis on shareholder returns. As an industry leader, the company will prioritize the dividends brought by industry development, and the coordinated development of multiple brands will help reach more consumer groups and enhance brand visibility.

Li Ning (02331): Recommendation rationale: The company's performance in the first half of the year met expectations, and as the inventory issue gradually gets resolved, the inventory level is returning to a healthy level. It is believed that the company's growth will also return to a stable level. Compared to another industry leader, Anta, Li Ning has relatively more elasticity, and Li Ning has a higher proportion of foreign ownership, which is expected to achieve better performance in market rebounds.

Nike (NKE.US): Recommendation logic: Nike announced last Friday that it will change CEO. Elliott Hill will replace John Donahoe as the group's global president and CEO. Hill, a former Nike executive, retired after 32 years at Nike. The market generally believes that his return will help revitalize Nike. Previously, Nike's development strategy was to drive channel direct operation, reduce distribution network, and continue popular footwear product lines instead of innovation.

During this process, the company has cut ties with many long-term retail partners, leading to market share loss. Hill is very familiar with internal employees and retail partners, greatly reducing the integration time. With Hill's various roles in Nike's 32-year career, it is believed that he can better help improve Nike's performance. After announcing the change in leadership, Nike's stock price began to rise, which is worth sustained attention.

Topsports (06110): Recommendation logic: The company's recent performance has been volatile, mainly due to the impact of key brands (including Nike and Adidas), with Nike facing a greater negative impact due to the problem of unbalanced product mix, while Adidas is gradually recovering from its difficulties, with good performance in new product sales. As a sports retailer, the company has had a deep cooperation with Nike and Adidas for many years, and it is expected that the company's performance will also benefit from the recovery of the two giants and the ongoing stimulus of consumption policies.

Risk warning: Policy changes, lower-than-expected consumer willingness, intensified industry competition.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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